The males had their moment in the sun at Newmarket on Saturday and on Sunday it is the turn of the girls to take the spotlight with the Qipco 1000 Guineas is run over the straight mile at HQ to round off the first weekend of the Classics this term.
This race can often throw up some contenders for the Investec Oaks in time and opens up plenty of doors for the remainder of the season so this looks to be a competitive 12 runner renewal, one which we are going double handed in.
3.40 Newmarket: 1000 Guineas
This isn’t the greatest renewal of the first fillies classic of the year with 12 runners lining up for this Group 1 over the straight mile on the Rowley course at Newmarket. This race hasn’t necessarily been a race for favourites with only 1 of the last 10 coming home in front and, in that time, we’ve seen 5 go off at 9/1 or bigger. Exposed types do well too with 7 of the last 10 having raced 5 times or more in their short careers.
Aiden O’Brien saddles the favourite in Santa Barbara who has been backed as though defeat is out of the question. She’s a winner of her only career start, an average Curragh maiden back in September, so her price is purely based on reports coming from the yard. Whilst she could be better than these, I’m not a fan at the current odds. Mother Earth is O’Brien’s other runner & is ridden by Dettori. She’s more exposed & whilst she’s won just one of her 8 starts to date, she was 2nd at the Breeders Cup at the end of last year. Being out of Zoffany, it’s highly likely her best days might be behind her as her progeny often fail to progress from 2 to 3. Add to that O’Brien’s trio all underperformed in the 2000 Guineas & I’m happy to oppose them both.
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Sacred won the Nell Gwyn on reappearance whilst Alcohol Free scrambled home from Statement in the Fred Darling. Of the trio, Alcohol Free should have the most improvement given she hadn’t come into her coat at the time of that Newbury race but my worry is that none of them have run over a mile & I’m not sure any will improve for the longer trip. In fact, other than Star Of Emaraaty, a 50/1 outsider, only 2 more have ever run over a mile & that’s the focus for my 2 bets here.
In the last 10 runnings, every winner has been tried over a mile at least once & they all had stamina in their pedigree so it’s fair to say you need a filly that will get further in time. The first of my bets is northern raider Fev Rover who has won 2 & finished second twice in her 5 career starts. First time cheekpieces go on today which the trainer has said will help on her 2nd run over this trip. She was 2nd on her first 2 starts over 6 furlongs including a Group 2 when a head behind Dandalla before winning her next 2 over 7 furlongs (in Listed & Group 2 company). Stepped up to Group 1 in France, she went off favourite for the Marcel Boussac & looked a big danger into the straight before the very heavy ground took its toll but she still ran a good race to finish 4th. Being a daughter of English & Irish Derby winner High Chaparral, she has plenty of stamina & in an open looking & perhaps weak heat, she should be one of the few to be galloping all the way to the line.
My second bet is Irish challenger Thunder Beauty who is lightly raced with just 3 starts to her name. She won on debut, a 6 furlong maiden at the Curragh before running better than her finishing position suggested in the Moyglare where she finished 5th of 13. Drawn very wide, she travelled on the outside & covered more distance than her rivals but finished off well to grab 5th where she looked like another furlong would suit. Interestingly, Mother Earth who is much shorter in the betting here, was another 10 lengths back in 11th that day. Her only start over a mile was in that Marcel Boussac race where she raced wide again & made good headway before bumping a rival at a crucial stage. Again, she probably wasn’t suited by the ground as it wasn’t the trip that found her out. You have to respect any Irish trainer sending over just the one runner (Poetic Flare a case in point in the 2000 Guineas) so I expect her to run a big race in an open race.
PLACED AT 22/1 – Back Fev Rover (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back her here:
Back Thunder Beauty (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 BetVictor BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back her here: