It is a big weekend of racing on both sides of the pond and the big action begins on Saturday when we have the first UK classic of the campaign as the 2000 Guineas takes place over at Newmarket as the best 3 year olds in training showcase their talents.
15 runners are due to go to post with this race not only determining the winner of the first classic of the campaign, but also giving us a look into the future with superstars often coming out of this race and going on to bigger and better things.
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3.40 Newmarket: 2000 Guineas
Preview
The first classic of the season takes place over the straight mile at HQ with 15 going to post & it looks one of the most open renewals we’ve seen. As usual, the market is dominated by the name O’Brien with Aiden saddling 3 & Joseph 1. Aiden’s Wembley is the current favourite with Ryan Moore taking the ride but he doesn’t look the most obvious winner to me having only won 1 of his 6 career starts, although he has finished 2nd in a pair of Group 1s most recently. Joseph’s Thunder Moon is also well fancied having got the better of Wembley in the National Stakes before finishing behind that same rival in the Dewhurst. The biggest worry is breeding with the progeny of Zoffany proving better at 2 than 3. Mutasaabeq is the other one battling to go off favourite but Charlie Hills’ colt is 2 from 2 & personally I think inexperience will be his undoing.
With none of the front looking totally convincing, it presents an opportunity for those at a slightly bigger price. Battleground is the mount of Dettori & whilst he gets the rail draw, I’m sure that will suit where a clear passage is a must whilst Lucky Vega has been well backed but I have doubts over the trip. Poetic Flare won a trial in Ireland 3 weeks ago & Master Of The Seas won the Craven but a recent run has been seen as a disadvantage lately.
Betting
The one that has drifted to a ridiculous price is One Ruler who was less than half his current odds a few weeks ago. He might be the stable second string on jockey bookings but I don’t see it that way. He likes the track having travelled really well in the Autumn Stakes & winning in very taking style over course & distance before finishing 2nd in the Futurity, albeit on heavy ground. Many have said he’ll need softer ground but despite those 2 bits of form coming with cut, his action doesn’t suggest he needs rain. Only 2 of the top 8 in the market have won over this trip which I see as a positive & despite all the calls for a horse with a turn of foot, I think a strong galloper who will get every yard is more appealing. From a yard in form & with a nice middle draw, I don’t see him being out of the places.
Tips
Back One Ruler (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 10.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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