The European Tour heads to Scotland this week for the Scottish Open, the traditional lead up tournament to The Open which takes place next week. With true links golf not been on the schedule much over the last two years a seriously good field has been assembled for this event.
This tournament did beat the pandemic last year, albeit it was held later in the year, and Aaron Rai took full advantage to claim the title. He will look to make a successful defence of his crown but the opposition is of a different level to the one he beat in 2020.
Recent Winners
2020 – Aaron Rai
2019 – Bernd Wiesberger
2018 – Brandon Stone
2017 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2016 – Alex Noren
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Justin Rose
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Jeev Milkha Singh
2011 – Luke Donald
The Course
Quite often this tournament rotates courses year on year but given that the world is still getting back to normal, the tournament remains at the Renaissance Club for the third year in a row. The first thing to point out is that this is a links course which is exposed to the wind although the current forecast suggests we are in for a pretty calm week so we can expect the scoring to be quite low for all four days.
Given that this is a links course you would expect the winner to drive the ball well. The key to any links test is staying out of the bunkers so there is a premium on accuracy but driving it well, keeping the ball low and putting well are generally the recipes to success. I don’t think out and out length is key here but there are some holes where the bombers can just take the bunkers out of play which is a huge advantage.
The Field
This isn’t just the warm up event for The Open, it is a Rolex Series event so the field is the best we have seen in the Scottish Open for quite some time. As well as the stars of European golf, a number of American leading lights have come over to familiarise themselves with conditions ahead of next week. They include Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris and Billy Horschel.
Of those from Europe who will be looking to take the tournament down prior to The Open are the US Open champion Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and the 2019 champion Bernd Wiesberger. Those from the rest of the world who will have their eyes on the title include Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Garrick Higgo, who will be after a third European Tour win of 2020, Branden Grace and the winner in Ireland last week in Lucas Herbert. This is an absolutely stacked field.
Market Leaders
This is the first time Jon Rahm will have put a tee in the ground since the US Open which he won at Torrey Pines last month. You often see players who win their first major go a little quiet for a few weeks while they come to terms with their new status in the game. I don’t see that happening with Rahm but you can never truly be sure. Rahm won an Irish Open on a links course so the change in style isn’t going to count him out so if he has no hangover after the US Open triumph he is probably a worthy favourite at 15/2.
Xander Schauffele is the second favourite at 12/1. He is also teeing it up for the first time since the US Open but he was second at Carnoustie three years ago so we don’t need to worry about whether he has the game for links golf. The fact that there is no wind forecast for this week will undoubtedly help his chances but he doesn’t win as much as he should do on the PGA Tour. This field is as strong as most regular PGA events if not stronger so there isn’t a whole lot of juice in that 12/1 quote.
Collin Morikawa is a bit of a surprising 14/1 third favourite. He hasn’t really travelled well through his career and won’t have a whole lot of links experience about him. He is a classy player and his iron play is the best in the world but you need to have some links pedigree to win around here I fancy. The other problem I have with him is that the weakest part of his game is very much his putter and in what should be a low scoring week that is a huge concern. He isn’t for me.
A trio of the best players in the world round off the betting of those 20/1 or shorter this week. They are Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. I’ll dismiss the latter straight away. His honest assessment of the amount of work he has to do on his game after the Irish Open last week isn’t the sort of thing I want to be carrying my money. Thomas has gone right off the boil and while he is more than good enough to win this I suspect he is more about getting four rounds in ahead of next week. Hatton is of more interest of the three, especially as he basically owned the Dunhill Links for a couple of years. He isn’t quite at his best either though. It is 28/1 bar.
Main Bets
Bernd Wiesberger isn’t really perceived as a links player but I’m not sure why because he won this tournament two years ago on this very golf course and he has a top 10 in the Dunhill Links as well. I remember him almost winning an Irish Open on a links course in extreme conditions back in 2015 as well so he can handle himself when it comes to links golf. He will be motivated this week because he is chasing a place in the Ryder Cup side and returns to a place he has good memories at. He won in Denmark on a course which while not a true links is exposed to the elements. He was fifth in Ireland last week despite just an average weekend so he is scoring well and tends to play his best stuff in these Rolex events. He looks a huge runner to me.
Ian Poulter has a decent record around here and much like Wiesberger he doesn’t lack for motivation with a place on the Ryder Cup team something he is chasing as well. Poulter has played in both Scottish Opens on this course and he has finished 14-6 in those events so this is a course he has a decent record in. The recent form in terms of results for Poulter doesn’t look the greatest but when you break it down he has actually played some good golf but hasn’t quite put four rounds together. Many of those tracks out in America don’t suit him but a links one does so I think he’s a big price here.
Outsiders
Regular readers will know I’ve always been keen on Victor Perez and given that driving the ball is going to be massive this week and he is as solid a driver of it as they come he has to be a part of the staking plan. Like the two above, Perez also has eyes on a spot in the Ryder Cup and a win here would pretty much seal the deal for him. He lives in Scotland and has won the Dunhill Links so we know this style of golf isn’t one he can’t handle. His form has dipped off while he’s been in America recently so there is a bit of a risk attached to this one but at the price I’m prepared to pay to see how he goes.
Another player who has shown a liking for this course is Kalle Samooja who has finished 20-9 in the two years at this course. His form has taken a dip in recent times but it wasn’t that long ago he was in the top 10 in a couple of the Canary Swing tournaments and links or exposed golf seems to float his boat. In the two years he has played this tournament here he has opened with a 64 and a 65 so we know he can score around here and if he can put four rounds together he might just surprise a few with his final position.
The other two picks for me are links specialists that I’ve written plenty about in the past whenever links golf comes up so I’m not going to elaborate on them again. A switch seems to flick within Eddie Pepperell and Matthew Southgate whenever they get on a links track and given that both men have held the 54 hole lead on the European Tour in the last couple of months or so there is clearly some form in the pair of them. They are both priced big enough to be included in the staking plan this week.
Tips
Back B.Wiesberger to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back E.Pepperell to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back I.Poulter to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back K.Samooja to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back V.Perez to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Southgate to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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