The 2021 State of Origin series draws to a close on Wednesday. This third match of the series was meant to be the homecoming for a New South Wales Blues side who have already won the shield after dominating the series so far but the various Covid issues means that isn’t going to be the case now.
The match now takes place at the Gold Coast where New South Wales will go in search of a series whitewash while the Queensland Maroons will be looking to save some pride after a wretched first couple of games.
New South Wales Blues
The New South Wales Blues have been absolutely rampant in this series. Whether you want to focus on their attack or their defence they have been completely dominant. In attacking areas the pace and power that they hit the line with is that of a side who know they are well on top of their opposition and in defence they have muscled up and restricted the Maroons to just one line break and six points over the two matches.
The Blues are forced into changes for this match with their half-back pairing of Nathan Cleary and Jerome Luai both out injured. That means there will be a new combination in the halves with Jack Wighton and Mitchell Moses the men tasked with leading the Blues around the side. That will make a difference but Wighton was around the squad for the first two matches so he should be able to slip in relatively seamlessly.
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Queensland Maroons
This has been two of the worst matches the Queensland Maroons have ever suffered so they should be fully motivated to get something out of this series here. The series got off to a bad enough start when they shipped 50 points in the more neutral location of Townsville but when they got nilled at their fortress Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane to lose the series things got really bad for the Queenslanders. They really need to get something out of this match.
They have had a bit of a shift around as you would expect for a side in their position. They finally have Kalyn Ponga fit to play at full-back which means that Valentine Holmes can attempt to do some damage out on the wing. Out have gone Andrew McCullough, David Fifita and Jai Arrow through injury, Covid breaches and suspension with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Alexander Brimson among the replacements for the wounded Maroons.
Betting
This is probably the hardest match of the three to call in terms of the very late change in venue and the changes to both the sides. Had the venue been switched to another New South Wales Blues home ground then it wouldn’t have been so bad but for it to end up back in Queensland changes the dynamic of the match with Queensland motivated to get something out of this series. I wonder if it will further motivate the New South Wales Blues to complete a whitewash which will go down in history given that it was all achieved on enemy territory.
The handicap for this match is a bit of a dangled carrot at 11.5 but I think I’m going to take the Blues to cover. If Cleary and Luai were around it would be a no brainer but even without them Queensland have had no answer to the likes of Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic at any stage in the series and if they don’t have one here the Blues will still run riot. Queensland will be helped by having a proper full-back in place in Kalyn Ponga but he played in the series two years ago and New South Wales won. They’ve just be so dominant that I don’t think a double score win is beyond them.
Tips
Back New South Wales Blues (-11.5) to beat Queensland Maroons for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with Betway
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