Just over five months after Dustin Johnson donned the Green Jacket, Augusta National opens its doors for The Masters, the first major of the year and the commencement of a huge stretch of big golf tournaments taking place throughout 2021.
Johnson tore the course and the field apart in softer conditions in November but a more traditional Masters is expected this week which opens up the tournament to the rest of the select field that will drive up Magnolia Lane.
Recent Winners
2020 – Dustin Johnson
2019 – Tiger Woods
2018 – Patrick Reed
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – Adam Scott
2012 – Bubba Watson
2011 – Charl Schwartzel
The Course
We all know about Augusta National and after the doubts of how the course might have played in November, we are back to what we know for this traditional slot in the calendar. For anyone who may not be familiar with the track it is a par 72 which stretches to 7,475 yards and with rain in the area this week it is expected to play to a full yardage. The fairways are wide here and the rough never really too penal particularly with the greens being soft which they will be even allowing for the sub air system to dry them out a bit. The green are the feature of this course. They are big and have large slopes on them.
This has become a course for the bigger hitters and with storms around that may well be the case even more this week. If you are a statistics man then approach shots although more and more often putting is becoming a key feature for the winner of the tournament. With that in mind it is important to note that green books are not allowed at Augusta National so players have to go by the traditional method of using their eyes to read the greens.
The Field
As ever the majority of the best players in the world will tee it up this week. There are some notable absentees in that with Tiger Woods sadly being missed over the four days. Depending on your viewpoint one of the delights or intricacies of this tournament is that all the previous champions are invited back which means that we have a number of veterans in the field who will be looking to roll back the years, players such as Sandy Lyle, Bernhard Langer and Ian Woosnam.
Former winners more likely to contend again include the current holder Dustin Johnson, 2018 winner Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia and Bubba Watson. Players who will be looking to win The Masters for the first time include Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay. Justin Rose, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, Jason Day and Louis Oosthuizen are some of the others who will be eyeing up the Green Jacket.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is a 9/1 favourite to win the tournament this week but there are a few issues I’d have with getting involved in him. The first one is that you have to go back to 2002 for the last time anyone successfully defended this title and it is more than 30 years since a first time winner made a successful defence. Then you factor in that DJ hasn’t been in the best of form recently, with issues with his driver, a club that sets up so many scoring holes for him, and he looks a little on the short side to me.
Bryson DeChambeau and Jordan Spieth will tee it up as the 11/1 joint second favourites to win this week. I’ll come on to Spieth below but he comes in here having won the last event at the Valero Texas Open. DeChambeau was a warm order last year but never got going. He claimed he was unwell for bits of the week but looking from afar he didn’t seem to get a handle for the course, both in where to miss and also the greens. There are no greens books this week which DeChambeau has been known to rely on. On form he deserves to be the second favourite but you’d need to see a positive spin from him here to back him after that November effort.
Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas both come next in the betting at 12/1. Believers in the nappy factor will be all over Rahm this week after he became a father for the first time last week. Rahm has been in good form all year and has three successive top 10s here so he has everything going for him to be a force this week. Justin Thomas arrives here having won The Players Championship earlier in the season but he didn’t pull up any trees in the World Matchplay a couple of weeks ago. Thomas has never had a top 10 finish in an April Masters though which might be a concern for some.
Rory McIlroy will start out the tournament as an 18/1 shot to finally add this tournament to his list of honours and complete his own personal Grand Slam. That has always seemed to be a noose around his neck since the time he walloped a tee ball into someone’s back garden when seemingly placed to win the event 10 years ago. He comes here in very indifferent form, which in a way might help lower expectations around him, but this has never been a course you can play badly on and go well. He isn’t for me. It is 20/1 bar.
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Main Bets
Jordan Spieth is the first of three main bets for me this week but emphatically the most confident and as a result easily the biggest stake. I’ve had my eye on him for this tournament since his revival began and while a win the week before is often seen as a negative I don’t see that the case for Spieth. He was a runner up the week before he won this title in 2015 and when he won the US Open and The Open later in his career, he had won his previous outing. This is a guy who can sustain winning spells. In April, Spieth’s record here reads 2-1-2-11-3-21. I’m prepared to write off the 21 because that was after his game had hit the skids. His form now is more in line with how it was in those earlier efforts here let is not forget he looked to be cruising towards defending this title because the famous 12th hole got hold of him. Spieth reads these greens wonderfully well, his short game is among the best in the sport and he’s actually driving the ball overall so much better than before. His price has shrunk after his win last week but he’s primed for a second Masters title here.
Sungjae Im was tied for the lead in the tournament that took place behind Dustin Johnson here last year in conditions that might not have suited him as well as the fast and firm ones of here. We should remember that the Korean won on one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour in The Honda Classic last year and almost defended his title this year. Im was second here and statistically at least he arrives here in better form now than he did then. I say that because his putting stats are through the roof and we know he is an aggressive and clean iron hitter so setting up chances shouldn’t be a problem. He has had a taste of the course now which is so important because debutants don’t have a brilliant record around here. That knowledge combined with a game that suits Augusta makes me think that he is primed to go well once again here, potentially emulating Spieth by finishing second on debut then winning the next year.
Cameron Smith has shown he can play Augusta in all conditions and that might be quite key this week because the week the course is expected to begin firm and fast and then soften up as the rain arrives later in the week. Firm and fast suits him because he is used to that back home while his iron game around the greens and his putting is enhanced in softer conditions when his wonky approach shots aren’t as penal. Smith was fifth here three years ago and then in that tie for second here last year. Riviera is always a good form guide for here and Smith was fourth there. He’s added top 20s at the WGC Workday and The Players Championship and is second on the tour in strokes gained putting over the last two months. There are plenty of reasons to expect another big run from the Australian here.
Outsiders
I’ll take a couple of outsiders who might out-perform their price this week with the each way terms on offer but in the main I’ll save the outsiders on the shortlist for the side markets which will come along later because generally the elite of the game make their way to the top of the leaderboard here. That said, Brian Harman looks to be playing well enough to put a strong challenge up. He is putting brilliantly as we saw at the WGC Matchplay whereas at The Players Championship he led the field in putting. His iron play at Austin Country Club was good as well as was his short game. Harman is a Georgia boy so this is a home game for him and while his Masters record isn’t great, his last competitive round around here was his best. He has top 15 finishes in the other two American majors in his career so the big events don’t faze him. At a three figure price he can outrun his odds.
Jason Kokrak only has the November run around here but that experience can be invaluable for a man who went through the Florida Swing camped inside the top 10. He had finishes of 9-8-9 there and was setting second at the halfway mark at the Genesis Invitational at Riviera before struggling over the weekend. Despite fading over the weekend he led the field in strokes gained putting and has regularly putted well over the last few months. Kokrak is still relatively inexperienced at major level but he already has top 20s in the USPGA and the US Open. He has the length and the short game to better those efforts here.
Tips
PLACED – Back J.Spieth to win The Masters (e/w) for a 4/10 stake at 12.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back S.Im to win The Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back C.Smith to win The Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back them here:
Back B.Harman to win The Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Kokrak to win The Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
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