The flagship event of the PGA Tour will be won and lost on Sunday when the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass opens its doors to another hefty bout of drama, tension, quality and defining moments for the final round of The Players Championship.
We have seen three excellent rounds of golf so far with the golf course a standout feature so far which has allowed a top quality leaderboard to be constructed which should only add to the excitement on Sunday evening.
Round 3 Recap
After three quarters of the tournament it is Lee Westwood who holds a two shot lead on 13 under par. For the second Sunday in succession his closest challenger is Bryson DeChambeau, the Arnold Palmer Invitational winner who will be looking to add The Players Championship to his CV on Sunday. He is on 11 under with Justin Thomas and Doug Ghim another shot back on 10 under with Paul Casey, Jon Rahm and Brian Harman back on -9. Our pre-tournament pick Chris Kirk is among a trio of players on -8.
There was no third round preview from us due to time restrictions but we did cover the second round and that was an up and down day for us. As we suspected Christiaan Bezuidenhout beat his two playing partners who were reeling from terrible first rounds but unfortunately Corey Conners went down by a shot on what was a day of a slight loss which we will hope to recover over the course of Sunday.
Sunday Betting
We only really have the outright market to focus on in terms of a full betting market on Sunday but there isn’t a huge amount that interests me in it. As you would expect the final group dominate it. Lee Westwood and Bryson DeChambeau are clearly in good form having been in the final group with each other last Sunday and the bookmakers can’t separate them. Justin Thomas is the other player in the mix as far as the market is concerned but he has to back up a 64 which is never easy. Ultimately, I’ve got a chance of a place with Chris Kirk and you never know if he has a day out he could still get himself right in contention to win so I’m happy to leave that as my interest in the outright market.
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Sunday 2 Balls
The field will go out in two balls in Florida on Sunday and overnight the clocks have gone forward in America which means that the final group out of Lee Westwood and Bryson DeChambeau will tee off at 17.50 GMT with Justin Thomas and Doug Ghim going out 10 minutes before them in the penultimate group. With crowds back and every shot live in this tournament there is no doubt the Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth pairing at 15.55 GMT will be popular with fans and viewers alike. I like two bets over the final round.
Jason Day vs Corey Conners
Match tees off at 15.45 GMT
The first of the two bets I like comes in an international pairing who might even team up in the Presidents Cup down the line as the Australian ace Jason Day goes up against the Canadian player Corey Conners with both men starting their final round on four under.
These two players are playing for position and rankings and things like that but I think Day might be playing for a bit more than that as he attempts to get his game where he wants it heading into the major season. Conners has been in decent touch in recent times having led the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the halfway mark but his long game this week has been nowhere near as good as it was there and with the pins where they are on Sunday you are going to have to hit the ball well. That is why I like Day here. He is third in strokes gained from tee to green which shows he has hit the ball extremely well, he just hasn’t holed anything on the greens but some of these pins are in places where slopes can be used to get the ball to the hole which should help his putting in this final round. Day has won around here before so he knows how to play the course on Sunday and I expect him to win this pairing.
Sergio Garcia vs Matthew Fitzpatrick
Match tees off at 17.10 GMT
The second bet I like comes in a pairing which could easily be a Ryder Cup pairing later in the year as former champion Sergio Garcia goes up against Matthew Fitzpatrick for whom the Florida Swing has been pretty kind to without winning so far.
These two men start their final round on eight under, five off the lead but they will know if they final group bring each other down they are just two back of third so very much still in the hunt here. I like Garcia in this pairing. Fitzpatrick was all over the place with his long game on Saturday, losing more than three strokes to the field from tee to green and only been better in that discipline than two players. His putting was exceptional but he will need to hit it a lot better than that if he is to contend here. He also hasn’t broken 70 in a final round in America this season which is another concern. Garcia has only played the last two rounds in one under par but he continues to gain strokes on the field in the long game department. One or two sloppy putts have cost him dear but he is another former winner who knows how to play this course on a Sunday. If he can keep his focus on the greens I expect Garcia to come out on top in this pairing.
Tips
Back J.Day to beat C.Conners for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back S.Garcia to beat M.Fitzpatrick for a 3/10 stake at 2.15 with Betway
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