We have dissected the draw for the WGC Dell Matchplay and picked out our outright bets accordingly but one of the best things about this tournament is that not only is the winner market priced up but each of the 16 groups have their own market as well.
That means we can go through them and pick out a few players who we might have fancied to go well but who could run into a monster in the last 16 denying us an outright payout, or take the chance on getting a seeded player beaten. There are three groups I’m happy to target.
Group 10
The first of those comes down in Group 10 where I’m happy to take on Patrick Cantlay who I believe is a false favourite. He has never come out of his group in two tries in this tournament and comes in here off the back of a missed cut at The Players and a fading effort at Riviera where his putting was becoming a real concern. He is in a group with Hideki Matsuyama, Carlos Ortiz and Brian Harman.
If I’m concerned about the putting of Cantlay I certainly can’t be getting involved with Matsuyama whose stroke looks so jabby it is untrue. I think this group could actually be between the two lowest ranked players in the section. Ortiz should be confident having landed the Houston Open in this part of the world at the back end of last season but inexperience around here could lead to Harman being the man to win this group. Harman showed he is hitting the ball well at TPC Sawgrass where he was in contention for long periods and that week he led the field in strokes gained putting. Putting is huge in this format. Matsuyama has never come out of his group in this tournament on this course. Harman has only appeared here once but he won a group which contained Rory McIlroy before losing to the eventual winner Bubba Watson in the last 16. He looks like the one to be on here.
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Group 13
If you watch this tournament from the UK then you are probably going to hear a lot about Viktor Hovland this week because this is basically his audition for how big a part he will play in the Ryder Cup in September. I’m not convinced he comes out of a Group 13 that contains Abraham Ancer, another European Ryder Cup hopeful in Bernd Wiesberger and Kevin Streelman.
The big issue I have with Hovland is his short game and putting is a massive weakness to his game, maybe not so much his putting but his chipping is a real weakness as we saw in the previous WGC when he scrambled terribly. You can’t win these matches without a good short game. He’s also a debutant here, as is Streelman who is another whose putting is very hit and miss. Wiesberger doesn’t lack experience here but he’s never come out of his group and hasn’t really ever cracked America. This group is for the all-round talent of Ancer in my eyes. I think he’s a quality player and he showed at the Presidents Cup that he can come to the fore in this format of the game. His form coming in here is decent enough and I think his game suits this course and format better than the other three.
Group 16
The other group I like a bet in comes in Group 16 where the debutant Sungjae Im is the headline attraction. Like a lot of players in this competition he is a debutant in this event so the door might just be open for one of Russell Henley, Victor Perez or Marc Leishman to come through.
Perez is also a debutant in this tournament and he is another whose short game still leaves plenty to be desired let alone when it is on a course he hasn’t played before. Leishman carries plenty of experience here having come out of the group twice in the four stagings on this course but since the Sony Open at the beginning of the year his form has got progressively worse. I respect Im despite his inexperience here but he plays too much for my liking and three intense rounds could be too much for him. Henley came good for me at The Honda Classic last week and I’ll back him to do likewise here too. He led the field in strokes gained putting last week and generally goes well in Texas having won the Houston Open now too far from here in 2017. Henley has only been here once and although he didn’t come out of the group, he beat Matt Fitzpatrick and lost to Paul Casey and Kyle Stanley on the 18th hole both times. This looks an easier assignment than that one so he can come out of this group.
Tips
WON – Back B.Harman to win Group 10 for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with BetVictor
Back him here:
Back A.Ancer to win Group 13 for a 2/10 stake at 3.40 with 888sport
Back him here:
Back R.Henley to win Group 16 for a 2/10 stake at 3.75 with Coral
Back him here:
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