The opening WGC event of a year is usually in Mexico but with Covid-19 having the impact that it is on the globe, the tournament relocates to Florida this year as the WGC Workday Championship at The Concession takes place with the leading players in the world looking to win a title regarded as the next rung under the majors.
Patrick Reed did exactly that last year when he landed the win in Mexico 12 months ago and the former Masters champion will attempt to defend his title on a different track this week. As ever an excellent field will look to take the trophy from him.
Recent Winners
2020 – Patrick Reed
2019 – Dustin Johnson
2018 – Phil Mickelson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Adam Scott
2015 – Dustin Johnson
2014 – Patrick Reed
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Justin Rose
2011 – Nick Watney
The Course
The Concession is the course in use this week and there isn’t a whole lot that we know about it other than that it is a collaboration in Florida between Jack Nicklaus and Tony Jacklin. It is a par 72 which stretches 7,474 and has undulating greens and water in play on a lot of the holes. As with all Nicklaus courses the bunkering is relevant which means that strategy is likely to be a big part of the requirement for whoever ends up winning this week.
This is a bit longer than some of the Nicklaus layouts that we are used to and there is a vibe that length might be important this week but the overriding feeling seems to be that hitting the right parts of greens and scrambling well is the key to success. Few players in the field will have advance knowledge of the greens so putting doesn’t feel as relevant as the second shots and the short game so I’m going in that direction with my thinking.
The Field
As you would expect for a guaranteed four rounds with big money on offer, there is a decent field teeing it up for this WGC Workday Championship. They include the defending champion Patrick Reed as well as the world number one Dustin Johnson. Another notable in the field is the man who landed the Genesis Invitational title in Max Homa. He is hoping to follow that up with a win here but this field is laced with greats of the game.
The likes of Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Webb Simpson and Daniel Berger are all here, as is the USPGA champion Collin Morikawa. The continental European charge is headed by the likes of Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland while it is Tyrrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick who lead the English challenge on a track that should suit them. Everyone is guaranteed four rounds of golf this week which always makes for a good event.
Market Leaders
It is Dustin Johnson who is the 13/2 favourite this week and while he isn’t just grip it and rip it, you wouldn’t place him high up in the strategy ranks so that is the first concern when backing him. The other would be how quickly he faded from contention at Riviera last week and then a third issue would be a putting problem which seems to have crept into his game in recent weeks. When you put all that together, while he’s good enough to win any week, he’s not for me at 13/2 this week.
Jon Rahm is a 10/1 second favourite to win the title and if form on a Nicklaus design has any merit then given that he is the current holder of The Memorial title he should not be written off lightly. Rahm finished well at Riviera last week and has more strategy in him than he is given credit for but I’m not sure huge power is the thing this week and ultimately that remains his biggest strength. I’m happy to wait for other weeks for the big Spaniard.
Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele are both 16/1 pokes to win this tournament. McIlroy was fancied to go well at Riviera last week and never got started. He can plot his way around a course but it has been a while since we’ve seen it and this doesn’t sound like a place to be aggressive and get it wrong. That might mean it is more into the liking of Schauffele, who is probably a respectable price at 16/1 with no major weakness in his game but I prefer others.
Patrick Cantlay is the next in the betting at 18/1 and I’ll come onto him shortly. There are three players at 20/1 in the best prices – Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas. Thomas will need to rebound quickly from a tame missed cut last week, as will DeChambeau although he does at least have the advantage of having won a college event here in the past. Hovland could be the best of the trio but whether he is ready to win a WGC just yet remains to be seen.
Main Bets
Patrick Cantlay is the first of my main bets this week. He was on my radar for this as soon as the course was announced but the fact he comes in here in pretty decent touch with the exception of an indifferent final round at Riviera last week only heightens my liking for him here. Cantlay has an excellent record on Nicklaus courses which I always think is a big thing because his courses do play different to the norm. He has shown he can strategize his way around a golf course and the two key factors for me this week – approach play and scrambling, he is very good at both. You would have thought he would have won either at Pebble Beach or The American Express had his putter cooperated throughout that week but with nobody having any advantages on the greens this week the Zozo Championship winner looks primed for a second title of the season here.
The other main bet I like is Tyrrell Hatton who had an excellent Desert Swing on the European Tour and has the game to go very well around here. Hatton won the season opening Abu Dhabi Championship on the European Tour and then backed that up with a top six at the Saudi International on his last start. Hatton is one of the best iron players in the game and is right up there on the scrambling stats too. Nobody gained more strokes than him from tee to green in Abu Dhabi or on approach and that was a pretty decent field. Only three better his strokes around the green the following week in Dubai and given that we know he can putt well as well the BMW PGA Championship holder looks a great bet this week.
Outsiders
Sergio Garcia missed the cut by one at the Genesis Invitational last week but for his first American event since a couple of tournaments on the Desert Swing I didn’t think it was a bad effort from him and I expect him to go well this week. In his last five tournaments worldwide he has been in the top five in strokes gained around the green in three of them and in the top 10 for strokes gained on approach in three as well. He hasn’t won any of those events but they’ve been quirky with draws or conditions. It wasn’t a huge time ago that he was winning the Sanderson Farms Championship so we know the Spaniard is going well at present. At 70/1 he looks a good bet to me here.
Ryan Palmer is another player who has good form on plenty of Nicklaus tracks and that should give him some confidence about himself this week. Palmer disappointed in terms of his finish in Phoenix but in three of his last five outings he has finished in the top four. In those events his iron play has been very good and that rings true because if there is a weakness to his game it comes in driving accuracy, something which caught him out in Phoenix but won’t do here given that there is plenty of space off the tee. Palmer knows how to get the job done on these sorts of tracks and at 75/1 I’ll pay to see how he fares here.
The other player I had on my radar for this week was Christiaan Bezuidenhout and at 90/1 I think he is worth a play here. He is another who can be a little loose off the tee but given that there isn’t as much of a punishment in that regard here he can really come to the fore with his precise iron play into the greens and his imagination around them on the occasions that he gets into tricky spots. It is only just around three months ago he was winning in successive weeks in South Africa and he went well in Dubai and the desert since then too. The South African has an excellent iron game and if he can take a liking to the greens he’ll outrun his price here.
Tips
Back P.Cantlay to win WGC Workday Championship at The Concession (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back C.Bezuidenhout to win WGC Workday Championship at The Concession (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back T.Hatton to win WGC Workday Championship at The Concession (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-7)
Back S.Garcia to win WGC Workday Championship at The Concession (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Palmer to win WGC Workday Championship at The Concession (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 76.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-7)
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