We have reached the week on the DP World Tour where the stars of golf join up with the best of sport, stage and screen on three of the most iconic golf courses in Scotland for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
This pro-am event was won by Danny Willett a year ago and will be played out on the same three courses which will be set up just like they were last year as opposed to how St Andrews was at The Open in July.
Recent Winners
2021 – Danny Willett
2019 – Victor Perez
2018 – Lucas Bjerregaard
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Tyrrell Hatton
2015 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2014 – Oliver Wilson
2013 – David Howell
2012 – Branden Grace
2011 – Michael Hoey
The Format
Each professional teeing it up this week is paired with an amateur partner where the pair play each of the courses once over the first three days of the tournament. The top 60 professionals after the third round play the final round at St Andrews on Sunday with the leading 20 pro-am teams also playing out the last 18 holes for their own individual title.
The Courses
Kingsbarns, St Andrews and Carnoustie are the three courses this week with Kingsbarns often the easiest of the rotation and Carnoustie the toughest although they are all set up easier than they would be if they were hosting The Open to allow for the amateurs to get by in a reasonable time limit. As we have seen in the past though, the toughness of all three courses will be determined by the conditions, especially the wind.
That wind is expected to be relevant all week and it is going to be pretty chilly. The worst of the weather looks like it will be around on Friday. Factor that in when making your selections this week. It is also going to be fairly cold up in Scotland so the ball isn’t going to go through the air so we’re looking for players who have a bit of length to them I fancy. Being able to play in the wind is paramount and an enjoyment in tough conditions might help you separate the field too.
The Field
This tournament always attracts a decent field with the amateur element and the courses it is played on always appealing to many of the leading lights on the DP World Tour. Rory McIlroy is a big supporter of this tournament and he is in the field this week, as is the recently crowned BMW PGA Championship winner Shane Lowry. Defending champion Danny Willett is also in the field this week too as is the US Open champion Matthew Fitzpatrick.
We have a number of other players in the top 50 in the world ranking here this week. Billy Horschel won the Presidents Cup last week and will look to add the Dunhill Links title to his CV while Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton are regular contenders in the event. Thomas Pieters, Talor Gooch, Louis Oosthuizen and Ryan Fox complete the players in the elite band of the ranking while the likes of Alex Noren, Adrian Meronk and Robert MacIntyre will be hoping for the sort of week that pushes them into that club.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is a 9/2 favourite to return to the scene of his demise at The Open and win the tournament. Amazingly McIlroy has never won this tournament but he has been second twice and third on another occasion so it isn’t like the tournament disagrees with him but I always think when Rory plays in this tournament it is more about getting his dad up in the team event than him necessarily coming out on top. I’m in no rush to back anyone in this event at 9/2 anyway.
Shane Lowry is an 11/1 favourite. I always think the BMW PGA Championship and this tournament is the autumn double and Lowry is the only man who can complete it this year after he triumphed at Wentworth earlier in the month. Lowry is a wonderful links player so he certainly ticks that box. Lowry is another who has never won this tournament but he has got three top six finishes in the event. The only question I’d have over him is whether the social element of the tournament takes a little too much priority.
Matthew Fitzpatrick is a point bigger in the betting market than Lowry at 12/1. The US Open was second in Italy last time out but he has never cracked the top 10 in this tournament which is a bit of a surprise when you consider how good he is. He has top 10s in the last two Scottish Opens so it certainly isn’t that he can’t play links golf but there is something about this event which doesn’t agree with him. I wonder if the greens are a little slow. Either way he isn’t for me this week.
Tyrrell Hatton loves this tournament and is 14/1 to win it for a third time. He won this tournament in 2016 and 2017 and has twice been a runner up in it since then so if you are backing a horse for the course then Hatton is very much your man. He was in the top 10 in Italy last time out and was a shot shy of the top 10 in The Open after a horror third round in the tougher conditions. The claims for Hatton are obvious but they do need to be countered by pointing out he’s in nothing like the form now that he was when he won the event.
Main Bets
I like Tommy Fleetwood as a main bet this week. I think he has all the attributes to get over the line here. The first box he ticks is his record in the tournament where he has five top five finishes and another top 10 finish. He was also in the top five in both the Scottish Open and The Open which were played on links tracks this year. The former had a tough weather day as well like he is going to encounter here. Fleetwood is a wonderful driver of the ball and excellent with the irons and the setup for this tournament really seems to suit his short game. Of the market leaders I think the 18/1 on him is the pick of the value.
Eddie Pepperell has been trending in the right direction for a while now. He has played events on three links courses this year and has gone 14-11-2 in them. His last seven events have yielded finishes of 11-2-20-8-18-32-12 so he has been very consistent. We know the strength of the Pepperell game is his iron play and that is the statistic that matters most this week. He can flight the ball down so the wind won’t play havoc with him as much as others and his last four efforts here have been 7-44-15-17 so he gets on well with the event. I think the tougher weather might make his claims even stronger so he is my second main bet.
Outsiders
I can never let this tournament go by without backing Joakim Lagergren to win it. He has done everything but win this tournament and seemingly contends in it regardless of the form he is in. His record in this tournament reads 4-4-12-MC-3-2 so he has done everything but get his hands on the trophy. He isn’t in great form but he has come here before completely out of sync and these courses just inspire him to deliver the goods. I’m happy to pay to see how he goes again at a three figure price.
I’m also prepared to go with the former champion Oliver Wilson who recently won the Made in Himmerland in Denmark. Although that isn’t a links event the short wedges you have to fire in there is very similar to the test here. Wilson has shown in the past he is comfortable in the wind and he is clearly hitting the ball well based on that effort in Denmark. He was a surprise winner when he won this in 2014 but he was runner up in 2009 so he went well here before he won. At the Hero Open just down the road from here earlier in the year he ranked second for strokes gained on approach but couldn’t get anything in the hole. If he hits the ball that well here we know the way the greens are set up for this event suits him and at a triple figure price he looks overpriced.
Tips
Back T.Fleetwood to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back E.Pepperell to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Lagergren to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back O.Wilson to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
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