The PGA Tour is back to designated status again this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a tournament which remembers one of the greats of golf and which usually presents another at the same time.
Scottie Scheffler was the latest class act to win this tournament a year ago and he will be hoping to do what he did at Riviera last month and retain the title. An elite field will line up looking to stop that from happening though.
Recent Winners
2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Bryson DeChambeau
2020 – Tyrrell Hatton
2019 – Francesco Molinari
2018 – Rory McIlroy
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Matt Every
2014 – Matt Every
2013 – Tiger Woods
The Course
We are back at the famous and wonderful Bay Hill Golf Club and Lodge this week where the best players in the world battle it out on a par 72 track which measures 7,454 yards once again. The scoring is known to be high when the wind blows and there is expected to be enough of that to keep the field honest for the first three rounds this year. Sunday should be ok but you need players who can control their ball in the wind to be in position by then.
They say this is an all-round test of golf and that is perfectly true. There is the belief it has got easier off the tee but with the amount of water waiting for errant tee shots around here I’m not so sure that is the case. Even if it is they have started to grow the rough and firm up the greens in recent times so you want to be hitting in from the fairways. It is very much a second shot golf course because precision into these strongly guarded greens is a necessity. They are small greens though so scrambling still remains another key requirement around here.
The Field
This is another one of the designated tournaments where the leading lights are all signed up to play. The only member of the PIP set of players who were due to play who isn’t teeing it up is Tiger Woods. That means we have the defending champion Scottie Scheffler in the field this week. We currently have a perceived big three in the world at the minute and the other two, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are also in the field.
We also have the winner of The Honda Classic last week in Chris Kirk in the field while former champions Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari and Jason Day are also in the field. Other leading lights who will be teeing it up here include Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris, Victor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and one of the players of the season so far in Max Homa. There are star names everywhere you look this week.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm is the favourite for every tournament he tees it up in these days and that is the case here. He has won five times in the last five months but he never won around here. He played this tournament for the first time a year ago and came T17. You sense that now he has had a spin around here he will go much better but I’m not sure the wind is in his favour and even if it isn’t a deterrent he feels short enough at 13/2 in a field this deep.
Rory McIlroy won this tournament in 2018 and he is 9/1 to get the title back five years later. Ordinarily I would have given him a real look this week but the news about the changes to the PGA Tour structure next season have been released ahead of this tournament and I suspect a lot of his time will be taken up by the media. McIlroy has finished inside the top 15 in each of the last five years here so he knows this place well but he didn’t really feature in Phoenix or at Riviera. I’ll tentatively pass him over.
Scottie Scheffler is a 10/1 third favourite for the tournament. He won this fairly handily a year ago but the conditions are expected to be a little more testing this time around. I don’t necessarily think that will deter him but regular readers will know that I’m no fan of backing a defending champion because of the demands on his time and things like that. I must admit of the front three in the market he’s the one I like the most but not enough to get involved in.
Patrick Cantlay comes next in the betting at 20/1. He has never played this tournament before so is a highlight of the success of these designated events as without that status you would imagine he’ll be sat at home waiting for The Players Championship next week. It has to be a negative that he hasn’t played this event before but he was third at the Genesis last month so at least he’s in decent form. He just feels a little short given the lack of a spin around here.
Main Bets
Tyrrell Hatton loves this place. He has a win here and was second here behind Scottie Scheffler last year. The more the wind blows the better his chances are going to be this week but even if it doesn’t blow we know he can tame what is becoming a really tricky golf course. He has all the boxes ticked here. He is excellent with the irons and very good around the greens and he putts these greens exceptionally well. Hatton arrives here off the back of a T6 in Phoenix and although things didn’t go brilliantly at Riviera, he wasn’t a disaster. I think he’s primed for a big showing here.
Another player who I think is in with a big chance here is Rickie Fowler. It is no secret he has gone back to Butch Harmon and the results are already improving massively. He has competed strongly at three big tournaments this season. He was T11 at Torrey Pines, T10 in Phoenix and T20 at the Genesis Invitational. He also has a couple of top 20 finishes in this tournament in his last five outings here. Fowler sits at seven on the PGA Tour this season for strokes gained on approach and we know he can handle the wind and that he can putt on these greens and at the price he looks a great bet this week.
Outsiders
Gary Woodland has been trending in the right direction in recent times. He won the US Open at Pebble Beach so any wind around this week certainly isn’t going to detract from his chances. Woodland sits at 11 on the tour for strokes gained on approach so his iron play is right up there this season and that was emphasised at Riviera recently where he finished in the top 10. The former US Open champion was fifth here a year ago in his first start in the tournament so now that he has had a spin around here you would imagine he’ll be primed to go well. I’ll pay to see just how well he goes here.
Justin Rose is already a winner on the PGA Tour this season when he took down the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and that is extremely significant here because it shows that he can go well in the wind, although to be fair we knew that anyway. Rose missed the cut in his only start since then but you often get that after a while without a win. He is very good from tee to green and he has a third placed finish here in the past so we know he can handle this place. Confidence of winning turns class acts into monsters and I fancy Rose to show his class here.
I might be a week too soon but I’m going to chance Tom Hoge given that he has drifted to a three-figure price this week. Hoge sits second on the PGA Tour in the strokes gained on approach category this season and when you consider Mito Pereira has left the tour you can basically say Hoge is the best on the circuit in the approach discipline. Hoge has a mixed record around here with nothing special but some solid efforts. He was inside the top 15 at Riviera last time out which is a positive and I think he is hitting the ball well enough to go well here. Hoge has three top 10s on the season so far and his spin at Riviera suggests he might just be coming back into that sort of form. He feels a big price.
Tips
Back R.Fowler to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back G.Woodland to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Rose to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back T.Hatton to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Hoge to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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