A huge couple of weeks on the PGA Tour begins at Bay Hill on Thursday when the top level stars of the circuit compete in the Arnold Palmer Invitational tournament, one of the more popular events on the tour and one which always throws up some great golf.
Scottie Scheffler certainly enjoyed his time at this tournament a year ago when he won it for the second time in his career and the world number one is in the field looking to complete the repeat. Plenty of stars will be out to stop him.
Recent Winners
2024 – Scottie Scheffler
2023 – Kurt Kitayama
2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Bryson DeChambeau
2020 – Tyrrell Hatton
2019 – Francesco Molinari
2018 – Rory McIlroy
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Matt Every
The Course
We are back at the famous and wonderful Bay Hill Golf Club and Lodge this week where the best players in the world battle it out on a par 72 track which measures 7,466 yards once again. The scoring is known to be high when the wind blows and there is expected to be enough of that to keep the field honest for the first three rounds this year. Sunday should be ok but you need players who can control their ball in the wind to be in position by then.
They say this is an all-round test of golf and that is perfectly true. There is the belief it has got easier off the tee but with the amount of water waiting for errant tee shots around here I’m not so sure that is the case. Even if it is they have started to grow the rough and firm up the greens in recent times so you want to be hitting in from the fairways. It is very much a second shot golf course because precision into these strongly guarded greens is a necessity. They are small greens though so scrambling still remains another key requirement around here.
The Field
As ever in a Signature Event, it is the best against the best as far as the PGA Tour is concerned this week with everyone in the field guaranteed four rounds of golf at an iconic course. The field is headed up by the world number one and defending champion Scottie Scheffler and as you would expect there is a strong American challenge here with Collin Morikawa in the field while Xander Schauffele returns from a rib injury with Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Sam Burns some of the others who will fancy their chances here.
Three European players have won this tournament in the last seven years. One of those is Rory McIlroy and he leads the charge from across the pond with Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland and Sepp Straka the frontrunners from Europe. There have been international champions here as well and the likes of Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Taylor Pendrith and Tom Kim will be looking to add their name to an illustrious list of winners of this event.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler has won this tournament in two of the past three years and he was T4 in the year in between so it stands to reason why he is a 4/1 favourite to get his hands on the trophy once again. He hasn’t been in the best form in 2025 with the injury ruling him out of the first month of it and we haven’t really seen the best of him since he has returned but big players build themselves up for the big events so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he goes well here. At the price I’ll give him a swerve though.
Rory McIlroy has won this tournament before and he is generally a 15/2 shot to do it again. He has already taken down the Pebble Beach Pro-Am this season and he has a perfect record around here. He made the cut in all 10 appearances and as well as his win seven years ago, he was second here in 2023 and he has had six top six finishes in 10 starts. I’m still not convinced he is in his best form though and this course has plenty of obstacles to catch him out.
Ludvig Aberg won a Signature Event when he took down the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines last month and he will be looking to add this tournament to his list of wins too. He is 16/1 on the best prices this week and having already had a pair of top 25 finishes in his short career here there is a lot to like about the Swede who doesn’t seem to have too many weaknesses in his bag. This field is really stacked with good course form though so at the prices I’ll tentatively give him a miss here.
Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele are the only other players who are shorter than 25/1 in the betting this week. Both can be taken at 22/1 on the best prices. Morikawa doesn’t have the best record around here with only one top 10 finish in four goes despite his tee to green prowess. Schauffele returns from a month or so out with a rib injury and will probably need some competitive reps before he showcases his best so neither are for me here.
Main Bets
I like two main bets this week with the first of them being Patrick Cantlay, a man who is solid as a rock from tee to green and that is going to be a big thing this week with the rough allowed to grow a little longer than usual. The conditions are expected to get a little rough towards the end of the tournament as well so his strength in avoiding bogeys will be significant and he has already had a top five finish around here two years ago and he has a pair of them on the season so while there isn’t any huge noise around him he is quietly going nicely about his business. I like him at the prices.
Europeans have a good record in this tournament and there is no reason why Tommy Fleetwood can’t continue that. He is hitting the ball brilliantly from tee to green at the minute and while his strokes gained around the green isn’t cutting the mustard we know he has a good short game. We also know that when the wind gets up like it is forecast to do at times that he won’t be disadvantaged at all. Tee to green strength is a big thing here and there aren’t many better in the long game department than Fleetwood so he is an obvious bet here.
Outsiders
Once I saw the forecast I was wanting to get on Akshay Bhatia who is another who should be suited to the tee to green test this week and who also should be comfortable should the wind get up as it is expected to. Bhatia arrives here off the back of top 10 finishes in his last two starts and although he is on debut in this tournament I really do think the course is a perfect fit for him. Had it not been his debut I would have put him in the main bet category but a man who hits it so well in the long game department and won’t be inconvenienced by the wind has to be in the staking plan.
Harris English is well known to be an excellent golfer on tough courses and with the rough up a little more this week and conditions adding to the toughness of a track which has historically been pretty tough anyway I think the Farmers Insurance Open champion is worthy of support this week. He probably isn’t going to win many tournaments where the winning score is in the -20 range but there is every chance the winner might not need double figures this week which brings him firmly into play. He hits the ball well, has a decent all-round game and should go very well.
Tips
Back P.Cantlay to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Fleetwood to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Bhatia to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 76.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back H.English to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
