The Sunshine Slam begins on the ATP Tour on Wednesday when the stars of the tennis world, minus the banned world number one Jannik Sinner, head to Indian Wells for the BNP Paribas Open, the first Masters 1000 event of the season.
Carlos Alcaraz enjoyed himself in the Californian sun a year ago and he will look to make a successful defence of the title this week but there are a lot of players who head to Indian Wells in tournament winning form looking to deny him.
Recent Winners
2024 – Carlos Alcaraz
2023 – Carlos Alcaraz
2022 – Taylor Fritz
2021 – Cameron Norrie
2019 – Dominic Thiem
2018 – Juan Martin del Potro
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
This tournament is in keeping with the usual Masters 1000 format. 96 players will begin the tournament with 32 seeded players who receive byes into the second round with the other 64 men battling it out to face a seed in that stage of the tournament. Every match in the event is the best of three sets and there is a normal tiebreak in the final set. The draw has been announced and is played out as drawn in the bracket.
Top Quarter
With the world number one Jannik Sinner banned for the next two months, Alexander Zverev has the opportunity to be the top seed at the Indian Wells event this week and he is placed at the top of the draw bracket accordingly. He is scheduled to take on Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarter final but six other seeds will be out to stop that from happening. They are the big serving pair of Matteo Berrettini and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Ugo Humbert, Holger Rune, Frances Tiafoe and the winner in Acapulco recently in Tomas Machac.
We’re not full of household names among those who have to come into the tournament in the first round in the top quarter but we do have the recognisable Japanese star Kei Nishikori in here while Alexander Bublik can be a danger to anyone if he has his serve working. Jordan Thompson is another who can be a threat in these conditions while Roberto Bautista Agut is still going strong. Miomir Kecmanovic and Tallon Griekspoor are a couple of others to look out for.
Second Quarter
Casper Ruud is the highest seed in the second quarter of the draw this week but he doesn’t have the best record in this tournament having only been to one quarter final in six attempts so that will be appealing to the other seeds in this section. Ruud would be scheduled to meet the beaten finalist in the last two years in Daniil Medvedev in the quarter final but six dangerous seeds will be out to deny that from happening. They are Alex Michelsen, Jiri Lehecka, Tommy Paul, Lorenzo Musetti, Arthur Fils and Alexei Popyrin.
Once again we don’t have a wealth of household names among those who aren’t seeded in this quarter but British eyes will be on this section to see if the former champion Cameron Norrie can use positive memories to revive his fortunes. The home wildcard Reilly Opelka is also in this quarter while the likes of Marcos Giron and qualifier Colton Smith will be looking to do some damage in this section. Nikoloz Basilashvili is a former finalist here and he is in this section as are Zhizhen Zhang and Roman Safiullin.
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Third Quarter
Another former champion here is the highest seed in the third quarter. That is Taylor Fritz who will be looking to regain this title and continue to improve his world ranking. He is on a collision course with Andrey Rublev in the quarter final which might not be the worst draw in the world. The British number one Jack Draper is one of the six other seeds in this section who will be out to deny that match from taking place. The others are Alejandro Tabilo, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ben Shelton, Karen Khachanov and Brandon Nakashima.
This is quite a competitive quarter with the first round players including the likes of Matteo Arnaldi and the new star on the block in Joao Fonseca, the next gen ace who has already made a splash on the main tour. Jenson Brooksby has a wildcard in this quarter as well while Learner Tien will look to build on that fine showing at the Australian Open. Dusan Lajovic, Sebastian Baez, Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Mariano Navone are some who might enjoy the slightly slower conditions here.
Bottom Quarter
This is where the defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will look to complete a hat trick of Indian Wells titles from. He will be looking for a three-peat and is on course for a mouth-watering quarter final against another former winner of this event in Novak Djokovic. They headline the bottom quarter but six other seeds will take their chances in it and they are Francisco Cerundolo, Hubert Hurkacz, Alex de Minaur, Grigor Dimitrov, Seb Korda and a back to form Denis Shapovalov.
There are plenty of household names in this quarter who enter in the first round. Nock Kyrgios might be the highest profile of them but the likes of David Goffin, Alexandro Davidovich Fokina, David Goffin, Lorenzo Sonego, Arthur Rinderknech, Jan-Lennard Struff and Gael Monfils are all potential dangers if not to win the tournament then certainly to go through a couple of rounds. Former US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta has come through qualifying to take his place in the draw too.
Outright Betting
This is a tournament where value can often be found, if not in the champion, although in the last half a dozen outings we’ve had three big priced winners, but certainly on players going deep and when you consider the top two in the betting are in the same quarter and therefore a maximum of one of them can make the last four, there should be value to be found here. I think the best of it falls in the form of the recent winner in Dubai in Stefanos Tsitsipas, a player who is no stranger to going the distance in a Masters 1000 event and who looks to have a wonderful early draw to get stuck into. Alexander Zverev will be a problem at some point but he won’t have been a number one seed for a tournament like this too many times before, if at all, and that might bring about some pressure. If the German doesn’t live up to the billing then the Greek, who took care of potential third round opponent Matteo Berrettini on the way to winning in Dubai, could be the one to take advantage.
The other outright bet I like this week involves the Canadian ace Felix Auger-Aliassime. He looks back in prime form having won two titles already this season and made the final in Dubai last time out. He opened up his season with a win over Taylor Fritz in the United Cup which bodes well with them being in the same section of the draw here and among his 16 victims this season he has seen off the likes of Tommy Paul, Seb Korda and Marin Cilic so he has handled big servers which could be key in the desert. FAA made the final in Madrid last season so he knows how to come through the draw at this level and with him third on the ATP singles race this season and the leader Sinner not here, he feels good value this week.
Quarter Betting
I will attack the other two quarters too. The second quarter looks extremely wide open with Casper Ruud having an ordinary record here and the form of Daniil Medvedev, who ordinarily would be a strong fancy in these conditions with this draw, completely disappearing. I think both can be taken on and while you would have to respect Alexei Popyrin for his hard court Masters 1000 event win last season, Tommy Paul looks the obvious pick. He is 10-3 for the season and made the semi-final here last year. He looks to have the ideal draw to replicate that this time around.
In the bottom quarter there will be so much focus on a Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic quarter final but Denis Shapovalov could be a threat to all of that. We know the Canadian has always been talented and this season the penny looks to have dropped and he has really found his form again. He won the title in Dallas where he came through a draw which saw him see off Miomir Kecmanovic, Taylor Fritz, Tomas Machac, Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud. He then saw off Alex Michelsen on his way to the Acapulco semi-finals so Shapo is playing some good stuff again and has all the angles to make life tricky for Alcaraz. I’ll have a punt on the Canadian to come through this quarter.
Tips
Back S.Tsitsipas to win BNP Paribas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Spreadex (1/2 1-2)
Back F.Auger-Aliassime to win BNP Paribas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 with Spread (1/2 1-2)
Back T.Paul to win 2nd Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 7.50 with Bet365
Back D.Shapovalov to win 4th Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Bet365
