The sunshine swing on the ATP Tour draws to a close on Sunday afternoon when the ATP Miami Open final will be played out at the Hard Rock Stadium when the outsider Jakub Mensik takes on the legendary figure of Novak Djokovic.
One man will be looking for a first Masters 1000 title in this final while for the other winning these sorts of tournaments is second nature and he’ll be widely expected to cruise to what would be a seventh Miami title.
Jakub Mensik
It goes without saying that this is going to be the biggest day in the young life of Jakub Mensik. The Czech will be competing in his first Masters 1000 final and just the second title match of his career at ATP Tour level. He fully deserves to be in this contest despite a slightly favourable run through the draw at certain points and obviously he will need to settle early in this match to give himself the best chance because the man across the net is a seasoned campaigner at this sort of occasion.
Mensik has seen off a couple of potential winners in this tournament already when he took care of the Indian Wells champion Jack Draper and the former winner of that event in Taylor Fritz, the latter in an epic semi-final which at least confirms that the Czech can hold his nerve under pressure. He was fortunate that Tomas Machac pulled out before their match and that Arthur Fils had nothing left in the tank that is no concern of the Czech. He should be fresh enough to give this his all.
Novak Djokovic
After a quiet start to the season by his extremely high standards, Novak Djokovic has come back to form in a big way in this tournament. He has come through the draw without dropping a set and while he hasn’t run into any of the big guns along the way, he has looked solid on serve and we know that in the key moments he isn’t going to falter. We also know that he’ll play to a high level in a final of this magnitude as he so often does.
Generally when Djokovic serves well he is close to impossible to beat even at the age of 37. His defensive skills haven’t left him and in these slower conditions he can stay in rallies and wait for opponents to push too hard and make mistakes or for the time to pounce and his a clean winner. Djokovic hasn’t dropped a set in the tournament and with the day off between the semi-final and final you sense he is going to be tough to stop now.
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Head-to-head
These two have met once in their career which was in Shanghai in the latter part of last season. Djokovic won what was a quarter final of that event but he did drop the first set on a tiebreak before having far too much for his opponent in the end, running out a 61 64 winner in the last two sets. That does at least offer up hope that Mensik could be competitive in this encounter.
Betting
I think from a neutral perspective it would be good if Jakub Mensik can at least make a match of this final but I have to say I expect Djokovic to win and I wouldn’t be surprised if he dominates it from start to finish. Mensik did win the first set in their only previous meeting and he served well in it, and he is serving well this week, but Djokovic has seen that serve now and you would imagine he will find a way to get into the Czech service games from the off here.
The key thing for the Serb is that he has served well this week, which is likely to make breaking him very tough for the Czech who failed to land a break of serve against Taylor Fritz in the semi-final. The question is how to bet on this final. Djokovic is cramped odds to win 2-0 but it might be worth siding with Mensik to win under 10.5 games. Even were the first set to be tight in a 2-0 Djokovic win and went to a tiebreak, the Czech would need five games in the second set to bust this. I would imagine the longer this final goes the more dominant Djokovic will be so I like the under on that line.
Tips
Back J.Mensik – Under 10.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with Unibet
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