After a normal week of professionals’ only around one golf course on the PGA Tour last week we’re back to a multi-course pro-am event this week as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the tournament in the spotlight for the next few days.
The one thing this tournament has on the rest of these similar type events is the wonderfully picturesque layout of Pebble Beach which makes the tournament slightly more bearable even if the format and coverage makes it harder to stick with.
That said someone is going to win this week and a few other players are going to place so there is still a very competitive betting market for us to get stuck into which will also add to the interest this week.
The profile of the tournament never needs any enhancement but it has some this week as both the world number one and two tee it up here as Jordan Spieth and Jason Day have signed up to the event. They join other stars such as Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson on this three-course jamboree.
The three courses in use this week are Pebble Beach Links, Monterrey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill. Pebble and Spyglass play to a par of 72 while Monterrey is a par 71. All three are shorter than 7,000 yards and will be set up fairly easy to play to keep the amateurs involved.
This is going to be a low scoring week so we need players who are going to make a lot of birdies and so for that we need greens in regulation machines, good scramblers for when the greens are missed and obviously good putters. These courses don’t play that hard from the tee.
Each player pairs up with an amateur and plays each of the courses once over the first three days before the top 60 professionals and top 25 amateur teams survive the cut to play Pebble Beach for a second time on Sunday.
Whenever the world number one tees it up these days he is an overwhelming favourite and that is no different here. This time he is actually a potentially backable 5/1 and I can’t say I would put anyone off but let us not forget we have three coastal courses which all play different should the wind blow so maybe this isn’t the week to wade in on Spieth from the off.
Dustin Johnson is twice a winner around here and led the US Open after 54 holes here in 2010 so he’ll be confident of delivering at odds of 10/1, Surprisingly Jason Day is a point bigger at 11/1 while the defending champion Brandt Snedeker is 14/1. Former champion Jimmy Walker is 18/1 and it is 22/1 back that quintet.
It is the last named member of that quintet that is going to carry the baulk of my money this week. Jimmy Walker was surely the winner of the Farmers Insurance Open in waiting a couple of weeks ago before horrendous weather hit Torrey Pines and he was caught up in the middle of it, much to our joy having had the winner that week.
Nevertheless it backed up my suspicion that Walker is finding his game again and having won around here in the past I think he is worth chancing to land the title again. Not only has he won here but he had three successive top 10 finishes prior to that so his record here is strong.
We shouldn’t be surprised by that as he is a greens in regulation machine and holes plenty of putts and with no pressure on him off the tee I expect him to go close again.
Another player I like this week given the lack of emphasis on what happens off the tee is Patrick Reed. Reed is a monster greens hitter but we have the comfort of knowing when he does miss the greens he sits third in scrambling on the PGA Tour which is no bad thing.
Reed was in the top 10 here in 2012 and is a much better player now and much more established. He ran Spieth close in the Tournament of Champions at the beginning of the year in a shootout so we know he can go low when needed and I’ll back him to do just that here.
My last three picks are all big priced darts in the hope that we can get one in the mix to generate extra interest on Sunday. The first of those is on a man who appears to save his best for this tournament. That is Bryce Molder.
Molder has finished in the top 12 in his last four trips to this tournament and given that he comes into the week off the back of a very encouraging sixth place finish in Phoenix last week this looks a good chance to ride the wave of positivity with the Georgia Tech player.
There is something about these three courses which suit Molder. I’m guessing part of it is that he can be competitive off the tee here but whatever it is I’ll take him to be inspired again off the back of that solid effort last week.
James Hahn went on record to say that he feels his game suits these tracks last week and with that in mind it makes sense to keep him on side this week.
Hahn was third here on debut in 2013 so that showed his liking for the links and the Poa annua seems to be right up his street. Hahn led at halfway in Phoenix last week and while he found the going a little too tough around Scottsdale on these courses he could well more than hold his own. He could be a big price here.
Finally I’ll go with a statistical pick and that is on Jon Curran, another player who comes into this week off the back of a solid effort last week. He was tied for eleventh in Phoenix and debuted with a top 10 here last year where he ranked high in all the key statistics.
He’s currently fifth on the strokes gained putting on Tour this year and inside the top 25 for scrambling so with this course not demanding much from the long game he has the tools to be competitive here.
Back J.Walker to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Reed to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back B.Molder to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-6)
Back J.Hahn to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Curran to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-6)
