After easing to victory at one of their hotbeds in the first Test, Australia have the chance to seal their Test series with New Zealand this week when they take on their near rivals at another ground where they enjoy a superb record in Perth.
Australia head to the west having lost just three of their last 17 Tests at the WACA dating back to 1997 so New Zealand have it all to do if they are to go to Adelaide still in with a chance to land the series themselves.
New Zealand will quite rightly say that they start Test series slowly and improve as they go along. That isn’t something to brag about and you would think will be a concern but with scaled down tours and things very few sides in the world hit the ground running on the road these days.
The simple fact is New Zealand never landed a blow on Australia at The Gabba. Their bowling was weak, not helped by Tim Southee’s back spasms admittedly, and their batting was found wanting apart from Kane Williamson so they have a lot to build on.
Australia have already named an unchanged side for the match which is no surprise given how comprehensively they won the opening match. With extra pace and bounce in this wicket we can expect their bowlers to be even more dangerous than they were in Brisbane.
New Zealand will be forced into one change with Jimmy Neesham’s back having packed in and as a result he’s been sent home. The noises coming out of their camp are that they are going to play Mark Craig at seven and go with four seamers. Matt Henry could be one of those having just missed out in Brisbane.
The WACA Ground in Perth will be staging Test cricket for the penultimate time in this match. So far there has been 41 Tests played on this ground. Australia have won 24 of them and lost just 10 with 7 draws. New Zealand have one win from their six visits here but haven’t played on this ground since 2001.
The wicket always has some pace and bounce so the bowlers are always interested here but the batsmen can score on this ground if they get themselves in. Draws are rare here with rain rarely an issue so we can almost take that out of the equation in the present day.
You would be a brave man to take Australia on at this venue but 2/5 is plenty short enough in fairness. They have plenty of motivation to get it done here. They won’t want the series to be alive in Adelaide when the day/night match could become something of a lottery so they’ll be up for this but they’re too short to invest in from the off.
One man who goes well for Australia here is Mitchell Johnson. He’s played six Tests on his original home ground and has 42 wickets at a smidgeon over 20 here. There hasn’t been an innings he’s bowled on this ground where he hasn’t taken a wicket so he should go well in this match.
His performance line is at 127.5 but when you factor in he’s averaging seven wickets a match on this ground and that he’s a perfectly competent batsman should he get in that looks a little low to me. I’m happy to get stuck into that especially with him taking the new ball in Brisbane, a move he didn’t always do in The Ashes.
With the pace Test cricket is played at these days and the fact that wickets at Perth can fall in bunches I think there could be some value in the match ending in the opening three days. Australia are no strangers to early finishes and New Zealand could be exposed here. At 7/1 I think the value is there in that bet.
There is also value to be had in the Top New Zealand Batsman market where only Kane Williamson gave the Australians serious concerns in the first match. Brendon McCullum slapped a few in the second innings but the Aussies know he’ll always give them a chance but if they can get Williamson early they might land a real psychological blow.
One man I like if Williamson falls early is BJ Watling and what I particularly like is the fact it looks like he is going to bat at 6 in this match rather than 7 where he batted in Brisbane. That will give him an extra partner to bat with and in theory lengthen his innings potential.
Watling already has two centuries in just four Tests in 2015 so we know that he can bat and if those above him, particularly Williamson, fails he could be the one to pick up the pieces at a double figure price.
Back M.Johnson’s Performance – Over 127.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power
Back Test Match End – Days 1,2 & 3 for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 with Paddy Power
Back B-J.Watling Top New Zealand 1st Inns Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Bet365
