For the first time in 32 years, New Zealand will be the touring team gracing the Melbourne Cricket Ground for the Boxing Day Test match against Australia, and they will do so knowing that they have to avoid defeat to keep their chances of taking anything from the series alive.
Australia dominated the opening match of the series in Perth a couple of weeks ago, and if they can repeat their success there at the MCG then it will be them sewing up the series before the two sides head to Sydney for the first Test of 2020.
Australia
It was another near perfect performance from Australia in the opening match of the series, their third in quick succession after a couple of dominant displays against Pakistan prior to that, and right now they look like a side who are going to be very hard to beat. Their top four all have big runs in them this summer and you would think it is only a matter of time before the rest of the order join that particular party.
In many ways it has been their bowlers that have stood out the most. The three Test matches this summer have been played out on quality batting wickets but they haven’t failed to take 20 wickets in any match so far. When you think they have had to bowl in some pretty extreme conditions during that time, it says a lot about their determination to succeed and if they maintain that for another couple of weeks they’ll be in good shape.
New Zealand
I thought New Zealand were a little devoid of ideas in that first Test match, although to be fair to them it is never easy when you lose a main strike bowler so early in a match, especially when another of them misses out through injury too. They have had 10 days or so to take stock of where they are and reflect on what they did right and could have done better and they will be expected to come out fighting on what is a big occasion for them.
One thing it goes without saying that New Zealand will have to do is bat better and put up more runs. That won’t be easy against this bowling attack, but that is very much the game in this part of the world. They will need their class acts in the batting line up to stand up and be counted, but if they can do that then you would think they will be competitive in this outing at the very least, and who knows what they can do from there.
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Team News
Australia called Peter Siddle into the squad for this match but it is James Pattinson who is expected to replace the injured Josh Hazlewood in the first. Michael Neser could be in line to come in if Australia play the extra bowler in tough conditions.
New Zealand have already confirmed their side for the match and they are making two changes. Trent Boult returns in place of Lockie Ferguson while there is a switch at the top of the order too as Tom Blundell comes in for the out of form Jeet Raval.
Melbourne Cricket Ground
This will be Test match number 112 on this famous cricket ground. Australia have a pretty decent record in the 111 that have gone before too, picking up 63 victories to just the 31 losses and 17 draws mixed in. Amazingly this is only the third time New Zealand have competed in Test cricket here. Their record reads a couple of draws and a solitary defeat so they will be looking to make a bit of history over the course of these five days.
The pitch is said to have a lot of grass on it. That is no surprise because the conditions have got out of hand in Melbourne recently and the insanely hot temperatures would see the wicket dry up and open up early without the extra grass cover. That might mean that this match is not as high scoring as some of those which have gone before it. Although bowling conditions will be unpleasant, the pitch should at least suit the bowlers.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets over the course of the match with my main one being the performance of Mitchell Starc, a player who had a good first Test and who with the extra grass cover on this pitch should have another decent one here. He took nine wickets, a catch and added 53 runs to the mix for an overall score of 243pts in Perth so it is a little surprising that his performance line for this match is just 120.5, even accounting for an indifferent record on this ground. That line looks low enough that just an average match will see him go past it. He’s better than that though. I expect him to cover here.
I’ll also have a piece of the 10/1 on BJ Watling to top score in the first innings for the tourists. He did exactly that in the second innings in Perth and it wasn’t so long ago that he was making a double century against England so he is in decent form. It remains to be seen whether the change at the top of the order works for New Zealand, but given the quality Australia have with the new ball it wouldn’t be a surprise if it doesn’t. That brings the fighting wicket keeper into play down at six and at 10/1 he looks a big price to repeat his Perth second innings heroics.
Tips
Back M.Starc’s Performance – Over 120.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back BJ.Watling Top New Zealand 1st Inns Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Boylesports
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