The third week of January has arrived which means that it is time for the first Grand Slam of 2023 to be played as the leading lights in the tennis world head to Melbourne for what should be an excellent Australian Open.
Rafael Nadal took advantage of the absence of Novak Djokovic to win the title last year but the Serb is back this time around and probably has a point to prove. There are others in the hunt for the title so this should be a great fortnight.
Recent Winners
2022 – Rafael Nadal
2021 – Novak Djokovic
2020 – Novak Djokovic
2019 – Novak Djokovic
2018 – Roger Federer
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Stan Wawrinka
2013 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
As ever in a Grand Slam the draw is pre-determined and the brackets have been drawn ahead of the tournament. Each match in the event is the best of five sets but unlike back in the day there will be a tiebreak in the deciding set. Should the score reach 6-6 in the final set a champion’s tiebreak will be played where the first to 10 points wins the match. The title will be decided on the second Sunday as always.
Top Quarter
Rafael Nadal is the defending champion this week and although he isn’t the world number one, as Carlos Alcaraz isn’t playing the legendary Spaniard is the top seed and in the top quarter. It would be quite some feat if he were to retain the title and the seven seeds in this section who will be looking to deny him are Yoshihito Nishioka, Karen Khachanov, Frances Tiafoe, Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov, Sebastian Korda and Daniil Medvedev, the man Nadal beat in that epic final a year ago.
Usually in the Grand Slams each quarter is loaded with household names who don’t have a seeded position but that isn’t really the case here. Jack Draper will be a big name in a couple of years and he is in this quarter while the American duo of Brandon Nakashima and Mackenzie McDonald are two men on the rise too. The home wildcard Jason Kubler is also in this quarter but by and large you would imagine this section is all about the eight seeded players.
Second Quarter
Stefanos Tsitsipas knows the next step in his career is to win a Grand Slam and he’ll attempt to do that as the highest seed in the second quarter. If this section plays out to the seeds then the Greek star will meet Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter final. The second quarter always seems to be the one that gets loaded with decent names and the other seeds in this quarter are Francisco Cerundolo, Borna Coric, Cameron Norrie, Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti and Botic van de Zandschulp.
Unlike in the top quarter, there are some more recognisable names in this second quarter. They include Lloyd Harris, Marton Fucsovics and Guido Pella who have had decent careers. British fans will be pleased to see Kyle Edmund back in action and in a Grand Slam draw. Soonwoo Kwon won in Adelaide last week and he’s in this quarter while Stan Wawrink and Vasek Pospisil will hope to be dangerous opponents for many.
Third Quarter
Novak Djokovic hasn’t lost in this tournament since 2018 and he’ll look to keep that record intact from the third quarter where he is the highest seed even though he missed so many big tournaments last year. Andrey Rublev is seeded to be his quarter final opponent but so much will have to happen for that to take place. The six seeds looking to put the kybosh on that match are Grigor Dimitrov, Alex de Minaur, Pablo Carreno Busta, Holger Rune, Nick Kyrgios and Dan Evans. This is a tasty section.
It is complemented with unseeded names such as the former US Open champion Dominic Thiem who has a wildcard for this event while he looks to get back to where he was in the game after injury. Richard Gasquet reminded everyone that he can still play as he won in Auckland last week while Ugo Humbert will be hoping 2023 is a lot better than 2022. Maxime Cressy had a good second half of 2022 and he is in this quarter along with Filip Krajinovic, John Isner, Adrian Mannarino and Aslan Karatsev.
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Bottom Quarter
Casper Ruud lost out in the final of the French Open and the US Open last year and he’ll hope it is third time lucky should he make the title match of this tournament. If he gets there it will be from the bottom quarter where the American number one Taylor Fritz is seeded to be waiting in the last eight. Miomir Kecmanovic, Diego Schwartzman, Alexander Zverev, Matteo Berrettini, Roberto Bautista Agut and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are the other seeds in this section.
There are so many recognisable players without the seeding next to their name in this quarter with the most famous of them being the former Grand Slam champion Andy Murray. Jenson Brooksby is one of the better players in the game on his day while Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik were seeded in many events last year. Fabio Fognini, Thanasi Kokkinakis, David Goffin and Alexei Popyrin complete a really competitive quarter.
Outright Betting
I’ll focus my attention on the top half of the draw for a bet in this tournament with Cameron Norrie looking a big price at 50/1 after a wonderful start to the season. He had a 100% record at the United Cup at the beginning of the year where his singles opponents were Alex De Minaur, Rafael Nadal and Taylor Fritz. He then made the final in Auckland last week so he is clearly hitting the ball well and is in good shape. There is a school of thought that a deep run the week before a Grand Slam isn’t ideal preparation but Norrie is a fit man so I don’t expect that to be too much of an issue. He is in a competitive quarter but it is one which could soon open up and I’ll pay to see how well he goes here.
Karen Khachanov made the semi-final of the US Open so it stands to reason that he shouldn’t be 200/1 to go deep here especially as he is in the top quarter of the draw where Rafael Nadal just looks vulnerable to me. There is every chance he doesn’t even make it past the first round and then the problem for Khachanov would be Daniil Medvedev who took care of Khachanov in Adelaide earlier in the month. They wouldn’t meet until the quarter final though and there are plenty of obstacles before that happens so I’ll pay to see if the Khachanov who was in New York, who only went down in four tight sets to Casper Ruud in the last four, turns up here.
Quarter Betting
I’ll go with one bet in the quarters where I’m obviously leaving the third quarter alone as that one is all about Novak Djokovic. The bottom quarter is much more wide open though and although Taylor Fritz had a brilliant United Cup with the USA who eventually won that tournament, I’m still not completely convinced by his Grand Slam credentials particularly after he bungled that Wimbledon quarter final last year.
Casper Ruud doesn’t really interest me but Matteo Berrettini, who beat the Norwegian in the United Cup, does at 6/1. I suspect that price is what it is because the Italian has Andy Murray in the first round but Berrettini has won all three of their meetings since Murray returned from injury and I would expect him to come through here. If he does then this quarter could open up pretty fast and so at 6/1 I like the Italian to reach the last four from the bottom section.
Tips
Back C.Norrie to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back K.Khachanov to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with BetVictor (1/2 1-2)
Back M.Berrettini to win 4th Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 with BetVictor (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
