The Australian Open concludes with what could be a mouth-watering final on Sunday when two of the next stars of the sport face off on the Rod Laver Arena as Jannik Sinner takes on Daniil Medvedev for the first Grand Slam title of the season.
Sinner goes in search of a first win at this level of the sport in what is his maiden Grand Slam final while Medvedev will be looking for his second Slam win and his first in three attempts in a Melbourne final.
Jannik Sinner
Jannik Sinner has been touted as the next big thing for a while and he could live up to that billing with a win in this match. To be fair to him he has been the best player in the tournament, dropping just one set on his way to this final despite having to overcome the challenges of Karen Khachanov, Andrey Rublev and Novak Djokovic in the previous three rounds. He is hitting the ball fantastically well and having won a couple of Masters 1000 titles now a major would be the next step in his career.
One thing Sinner will need to guard against in this final is nerves but if he can settle down and get into what is the biggest match of his career then you would imagine he is entitled to be very tough to beat because there is no weakness in his game. He is hitting the ball with power and finding angles that are opening up the court to make the points easier. You would imagine that he’ll be fresh given the lack of time that he has been on court.
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev has had a much tougher route through to what he hopes will be his second Grand Slam title. He has twice had to come from two sets down in this tournament but having done so he will believe that someone is looking down on him and it could be that his name is on the trophy. He was also taken to five sets in another match in this tournament so he has certainly been on the court for a while over the last two weeks.
This will be the sixth Grand Slam final in the career of Medvedev and his third here in Melbourne. It will be the first time he has faced someone other than Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic in a major final so that would suggest it his best chance to double his tally of Grand Slam titles. Medvedev went the distance here in his last final in Melbourne so there is something about this place that he loves but the big question will be how fresh he is heading into this final.
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Head-to-head
These two men have met nine times in the past with Daniil Medvedev leading 6-3 in those past meetings although it should be noted that Jannik Sinner has won their last three matches, each of which came in 2023. All nine matches have been on a hard court with two of them outdoors. They are 1-1 in those clashes. This will be the fifth time they have met in a final of any kind and they are looked at 2-2 in those games as well. Incredibly this will be their first meeting in a Grand Slam.
Betting
My gut feeling is that the price on Daniil Medvedev is a little on the high side. I get why it is but the Russian is a fairly fit lad and I think he’ll be fine in this one but there is always the doubt that three five setters along the way to this stage of the tournament could take their toll so while I’m leaning towards Medvedev on the prices, I’m happy to leave the match betting alone and head elsewhere for a bet on the final.
It is hard to see how this is a quick final unless Medvedev truly is shattered but surely the occasion and the magnitude of the match will see him compete strongly even if it is just adrenalin that fuels it and given that four of the last eight sets between these two players have been tiebreaks, if we assume that this isn’t won in straight sets either way, and I don’t think it will be, then you would have to think there will be plenty of time for the over 37.5 games to land in this one. The last two meetings went to a decider, the one before that was won in two tiebreak sets and three of their first six clashes also went the distance. The over looks good here.
Tips
Back Over 37.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with William Hill
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