The Australian Open gets the 2025 Grand Slams underway when it begins in Melbourne on Sunday and having looked at the outright draw for the men’s tournament it is the turn of the women to come into our attention.
Aryna Sabalenka won this tournament a year ago and the defending champion is in the field looking to keep hold of her Melbourne crown for a third year but women’s tennis is thriving at the minute and this could become a fascinating event.
Recent Winners
2024 – Aryna Sabalenka
2023 – Aryna Sabalenka
2022 – Ash Barty
2021 – Naomi Osaka
2020 – Sofia Kenin
2019 – Naomi Osaka
2018 – Caroline Wozniacki
2017 – Serena Williams
2016 – Angelique Kerber
2015 – Serena Williams
The Format
As with the men’s draw, the tournament bracket has already been pre-drawn and everyone in their places to prepare for the event. From the first round until the last ball is hit in this tournament each match will be the best-of-three sets but unlike the old days should the final set reach 6-6 a champion’s tiebreak will be played with the match winner being the first to 10pts with at least a two point advantage.
Top Quarter
Aryna Sabalenka is looking to win this tournament for a third time in as many years and she has now made her way to the top of the world rankings and therefore is the top seed in the top quarter. The champion is scheduled to run into the Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng in the last eight in what would be a repeat of the final here last year. Six seeds are out to stop that happening and there are some tricky obstacles in the way including Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Donna Vekic, Diana Shnaider, Mirra Andreeva, Magdalena Frech and Linda Noskova so that quarter final certainly isn’t guaranteed.
One thing we will see as we go through this draw is a lot of the top seeds have big banana skins in the first round to overcome and Sloane Stephens would be one of those when she meets Sabalenka in the first round. Marie Bouzkova will meet Andreeva while Diane Parry could be awkward for Vekic. Other players to look out for are the former Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova who amazingly isn’t seeded this year while Ajla Tomljanovic will be looking to make the most of a wildcard, with Magda Linette and Daria Saville a couple of others to watch.
Second Quarter
Coco Gauff will be looking to get her hands on some major prizes over the course of 2025 and having partnered Taylor Fritz to the United Cup title in the lead up to this tournament, the third seed will be confident as she heads up the second quarter. Gauff is scheduled to face her doubles partner Jessica Pegula in a tasty quarter final but before that happens the other six seeds need to be dispatched. They are Liudmila Samsonova, Marta Kostyuk, Paula Badosa, Jelena Ostapenko, Karolina Muchova and Leylah Fernandez.
The trend of the top seed in the quarter having a tough first round draw makes its way into this section too because Gauff runs into Sofia Kenin, who is a former winner here. Naomi Osaka is another player who has won this tournament in the past and she’s in this quarter while Carolina Garcia, Belinda Bencic, Xinyu Wang, Elise Mertens and Nadia Podoroska have decent Grand Slam results behind them. Jodie Burrage will carry British hopes here.
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Third Quarter
Jasmine Paolini did everything but win a Grand Slam in 2024 having made two finals and she will have another crack at a maiden major from the third quarter here where she is the highest ranked player. She is scheduled to run into the 2023 finalist Elena Rybakina in the quarter final here but plenty of quality will be out to stop that from happening. Elina Svitolina can go deep in Grand Slams while Katie Boulter is another seed. Beatriz Haddad Maia, Danielle Collins, Madison Keys and Dayana Yastremska are the other seeds.
To be fair, the unseeded contingent in this third quarter is nothing like as strong as it elsewhere so that will please the seeds in it. Lulu Sun made a name for herself at Wimbledon last year and she is in this section while Erika Andreeva is another who could be a danger. Sorana Cirstea and Taylor Townsend have games to make an impression on this quarter but in truth it is hard to look beyond the big names in this section.
Bottom Quarter
You might wonder why Iga Swiatek hasn’t been mentioned yet and the answer is because she has dropped down to number two in the world and as such she is the leading seed in the bottom quarter. Swiatek has never won this tournament and neither has she ever been to the final. In fact, she has only been past the last 16 once and has the doping issue clouding things. That will all be music to the ears of Emma Navarro who is the next highest seed and a potential quarter final opponent for Swiatek. Those aiming to stop that from happening as seeds are Maria Sakkari, Yulia Putintseva, Daria Kasatkina, Anna Kalinskaya, Victoria Azarenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova.
Two names from the unseeded set of players fly off the page in the bottom quarter. They are the former US Open champion Emma Raducanu and the former Wimbledon finalist Ons Jabeur. They could easily be around when we get to the business end of this event. Amanda Anisimova is another who could go well while Katerina Siniakova and Peyton Stearns will hope to see off Swiatek and Navarro in the opening round respectively. Caty McNally and Anna Kalinina are others to keep an eye on.
Outright Betting
I have to focus on the bottom half of the draw when it comes to outright bets here. I don’t really want to be going anywhere near the likes of Aryna Sabalenka, Qinwen Zheng, Coco Gauff or Jessica Pegula among others until we’re in the final so my main bet is Emma Navarro. She is in the quarter with Swiatek who has a shocking record here and the one thing about the American is that she can overpower the Pole and rush her into errors should they meet in the last eight. Navarro has a tricky test with Peyton Stearns in the first round but if she comes through that I expect her to go from strength to strength and having made the second week of the last three Slams, Navarro is ready to go big in an event like this at 60/1.
I’ve also got to have a bet on the third quarter and while I’m not a massive Madison Keys fan despite her game, I can’t ignore 50/1 on her in a section which just looks so wide open. She will compete in the Adelaide final on Saturday and has already beaten Beatriz Haddad Maia, Jelena Ostapenko, Daria Kasatkina and Liudmila Samsonova so she is match sharp and should be confident having gone through that run. Keys would run into Elena Rybakina in the fourth round but I’m happy to fade the Kazakh because there is all sorts of mess with her coaching setup at the minute. I’m happy to swerve Jasmine Paolini in this section too and there isn’t much else in it. Form and court comfort has Keys a big threat for me.
Quarter Betting
I’m leaving the second quarter of the draw well alone. That just looks like an absolute minefield where you could legitimately made a case for half a dozen players and there isn’t enough value anywhere to tempt me in. If I had to bet I’d go down the route of Paula Badosa but I’m perfectly happy to leave it and focus on the top quarter where while Aryna Sabalenka is a warm favourite but she has plenty of obstacles in her way for me to take her on.
I’ll leave facing her until the latest possible moment so I’ll go with someone in the other half of the quarter and that is Diana Shnaider who is a bit of value. You can get 12/1 on the Russian who I think will get to the second week where she could run into the Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng but that wouldn’t be a complete impossible game. Shnaider is 12/1 to win this quarter and I’ve a feeling this could open up a lot more than it looks. It will only be a small bet but 12/1 on a woman who won five tour titles in 2024 just feels a little too big.
Tips
Back E.Navarro to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with BetVictor (1/2 1-2)
Back M.Keys to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Unibet (1/2 1-2)
Back D.Shnaider to win 1st Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with BetVictor
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