There is just one singles match in the Australian Open on Friday and by the end of it we will know the identity of the two male finalists in the tournament.
Milos Raonic takes on Andy Murray in the second semi-final of the tournament with Novak Djokovic awaiting the winner in Sunday’s final.
Thursday saw Djokovic steam past Roger Federer with some of the best tennis you will ever see played while there were straight sets wins for Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber as they set up Saturday’s ladies final.
It looked like being a good day for us betting wise when both bets landed in the Serena match and when Konta and Kerber were 5-5 in the first set everything was rosy but then things collapsed and it all came to a small loss on the day, a loss we can hopefully get back on Friday.
Milos Raonic and Andy Murray have met six times in their career with each having three wins over the other so in many ways there is a case for suggesting this could be a close semi-final.
I’m not so sure it will play out that way though. Both have different styles and whoever puts their style across the more dominantly will progress here I believe.
Raonic is a huge server as we all know but there is no doubt his movement, his returning and his ground strokes from both wings have improved since he has had Carlos Moya in his corner and there are signs this could be a real breakthrough year for the Canadian in the major tournaments.
Murray lives off his return of serves. Along with Djokovic there is nobody better at getting the opening delivery back and the Scot is a master of neutralising a big serve as Sam Groth can testify from earlier in the tournament.
The key to this match could be the Andy Murray serve. He is going to have to serve very well if he is to make it into the final because with the aggressive nature of Raonic’s game he is going to eat up a weak Murray second serve.
The consensus is we will get a load of tight sets and a tight contest here but I’m not sure I see it that way. Raonic’s return has improved so much that he’s no longer the tie-break machine he once was as I mentioned in his quarter final against Gael Monfils.
There wasn’t a breaker in that and indeed the only times the Canadian has gone to a tie-break in this tournament was against Tommy Robredo and in those two sets Raonic bungled a stack of break points.
Murray has also only gone to two tie-breaks in this tournament so far and he has been returning the serve amazingly well so while this might have more than three sets in it that doesn’t necessarily equate to dozens of games.
The game line in this match is 42.5 and if there wasn’t to be a tie break in this match, and the tournament so far suggests a tie-break is nothing but a certainty, then we might well need five sets to cover that. Five sets is never odds on at this stage of a tournament so I’m happy to get on the unders on that line.
I wouldn’t necessarily rule out the upset here but after a losing day on Thursday I’ll play safely and just stick with the unders for Friday.
Back Under 42.5 games for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Sportingbet
