The Fall Series on the PGA Tour continues this week when the Bank of Utah Championship takes place and with tournaments running out for those who are yet to secure their playing rights for next term to do so, plenty will view this as a big week.
This is the second staging of this tournament, which was the Black Desert Championship last year. Matt McCarty won that competition and the defending champion is back in the field looking to make a successful defence of the title.
Recent Winners
2024 – Matt MaCarty
The Course
We are at the Black Desert Resort Golf Club in Utah this week. The course is famous for being the final one designed by Tom Weiskopf before he passed away. The track is officially a par 71 which on the ground measures 7,421 yards but with the altitude at play in this part of the world you can probably take around 300 yards off that. The beauty of this course is that it is laid out in amongst the black lava which makes it a very picturesque offering.
We have had a year of data to examine from the 2024 version. This was a low scoring event a year ago and with wide open fairways and large greens the competition swiftly turned into a putting contest. Distance control is a big thing here but accurate shots into the greens are what will be paramount. Ultimately, it would be foolish to think this won’t be a putting contest, especially now that those who were here last year have built up an understanding on the greens.
The Field
We are at the stage of the year where the bigger names are either having time off to get ready for next season after a long campaign or are preparing for the DP World Tour playoffs which begin in a couple of weeks, so the field here isn’t as strong as some would like. It is largely made up of players who need to either secure their playing options for next season or elevate the playing rights that they have in terms of qualifying for the Signature Events.
The home charge is led by the likes of the promising rising star Michael Thorbjornsen along with Maverick McNealy, Kurt Kitayama and the defending champion Matt McCarty. The European challenge is spearheaded by the recent BMW PGA Championship winner Alex Noren with Matt Wallace, Thorbjorn Olesen and Stephan Jaeger in the field too. There is a strong international contingent in the field as well and that includes the likes of Jason Day, Kevin Yu, Rico Hoey and Emiliano Grillo among others.
Market Leaders
Michael Thorbjornsen is the 15/1 favourite for the tournament this week. That is largely because he was third in the Baycurrent Classic last week although being out in Asia and back again might not be the best preparation for this event. The big issue for me though is he won’t have been a favourite for a PGA Tour event very often and is yet to win one. He has made four top four finishes in the last six months so he has contended in bigger events than this. I can see why he is favourite but I’m no fan of the price.
Maverick McNealy is next in the betting at 18/1 to get the job done here. He was one of few in the field who made it all the way through to the Tour Championship at the end of last season and he will defend the title at the RSM Classic next month. When you are eyeing up a putting competition then having someone with the short stick skills that McNealy has is never a bad thing. He was T13 at the Procore prior to the Ryder Cup and looks to have plenty going for him here.
Kurt Kitayama is another player with a PGA Tour title to his name who is in this field. He is 20/1 to come out on top here and with length and an aggressive iron game on his side you would expect him to set up a number of chances for himself. It then comes down to how well he putts and if he can get his ball rolling early in this tournament then he is the sort of streaky player who will go well. The price is probably only fair but he is another who shouldn’t be ruled out.
Two more players hit the frame at less than 25/1. Both are 22/1 to win the tournament on the best prices and they are the man who won the flagship event on the DP World Tour last month in Alex Noren, who is probably secured of his playing privileges through the DP system but would like to secure it without needing to fall back on that. Davis Thompson narrowly missed out on the playoffs last term but has gone T11, T19 and T21 in three tournaments since the regular season finished and could easily fire himself into contention here.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first of those coming in the form of the big hitting South African player Aldrich Potgieter, the player who won his first PGA Tour title at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and who was close to winning in Mexico and it is the latter which interests me here with the altitude factor in both tournaments. Coming from South Africa, Potgieter wouldn’t have been averse to altitude so we can expect his distance control to be on point and then it comes down to how well he putts. If he putts well here then he could look a monster price come Sunday.
The other main bet is more of a chance rather than a strong fancy but there have been one or two signs that Sahith Theegala is beginning to get things moving in the right direction again and if he is then 60/1 quotes in a tournament like this are simply too big. If you look at his results then there is nothing to write home about a man who has won in the fall before but last time out at the Baycurrent Classic he was T8 with 18 holes to go but couldn’t keep up the intensity. He has conditions to suit here and if that spin in Japan has built his confidence then there is no reason why he can’t be a major player here.
Outsiders
My outsider picks this week are shorter than they would normally be but that is just the field we are working with. Stephan Jaeger was second here last year and given that this is only the second spin of the tournament around this course that feels like a decent starting point. The German flew out of the blocks last year, sitting at 14 under the card at the halfway point but could only play the weekend in six under and saw one too good for him in the end. Jaeger has three top 10s on the year, one of which was in Mexico which is certainly a tick box for this tournament, and last season finished third in Mexico and won in Houston on a not too dissimilar layout to this. He has plenty going for him to be part of our team this week.
Patrick Fishburn is my final bet for the tournament. The Utah native will have positive vibes going into the tournament and with his length and long game ability he should be capable of setting up a lot of chances in conditions which certainly won’t be alien to him. He fluffed his lines in this event last year when he missed the cut but a couple of recent top 10 finishes gives me the inclination to think he will go better this year. He is two places inside the top 100 on the FedExCup so he can’t avoid to ease up now. In what is a big win for him in terms of locality and from a ranking perspective, I’ll chance the home man comes good here.
Tips
Back A.Potgieter to win Bank of Utah Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Theegala to win Bank of Utah Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back S.Jaeger to win Bank of Utah Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back P.Fishburn to win Bank of Utah Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 76.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
