It is the first weekend in June which means that it is time for the fourth classic of the UK flat racing season as the Betfred Derby gets run at Epsom Downs on what is one of the better days of racing on the calendar.
The support card is always very good on Derby Day and it will be interesting to see how many hang around for those races with the big one being moved forward. We’re focusing purely on the huge race though.
1.30 Epsom
Favourites
It’s Derby Day and the big race has moved slots to an early post time of 1.30. Whilst that’s unfamiliar, the shape of the market has a very familiar feel to it with O’Brien, Appleby and Gosden up towards the top of the betting. In Frankie Dettori’s last year of riding, the fairytale many want is for him to win the big one and, after he landed the 2 big races yesterday, the Coronation Cup and the Oaks, his mount Arrest has been very well punted in the last 24 hours. He landed the Chester Vase in fine style by over 6 lengths but it wasn’t a strong race and he’s done all his running with some cut in the ground. Auguste Rodin, the main O’Brien hope, is hard to weigh up. Talk of the triple crown was going around before the Guineas but he was an almighty flop trailing in 12th of the 14 runners. He just cannot be considered a bet at such short odds off the back of that run. The most solid of the front 3 is arguably the Buick / Appleby charge, Military Order. This brother to past winner of this race, Adayar, has won his last 3 including the Lingfield Derby Trial and looks to be getting better with each run.
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Contenders
Passenger has been supplemented for this and comes here as a very lightly raced colt. After winning on debut, all we’ve heard is how he’d have scooted up in the Dante if he’d got a clear run. I’m just not so sure. Whilst you cannot deny he didn’t get a great run, he didn’t look to quicken that much once in the clear. To have him less than half the price than the 2 that finished in front of him doesn’t sit right with me. Sprewell looked classy in the Leopardstown Derby Trial but faces much quicker ground today which is a concern whilst White Birch cannot be written off after only narrow losing out in the Dante. Artistic Star is unbeaten in 2 career starts but this is a massive step up in class, with the 2 best at bigger prices appear to be Charlie Johnston’s Dubai Mile and another of O’Brien’s in San Antonio. If both handle these faster conditions, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing them,
Betting
The Foxes – As the key trial for this, I cannot leave out the Dante winner. He’s maybe not the most impressive of that race in recent years but I don’t remember seeing a winner of that go off at such a big price in the Derby. He’s a winner of 3 of his 6 career starts and seems to like ground on the quick side of good which should be a bonus in this field. He won the Royal Lodge as a 2 year old and then returned to finish 2nd in the Craven on reappearance. It was his Dante win though that took the eye as he quickened well from the rear, possibly hitting the front too soon. Whilst the winning distance was only a neck, it didn’t look to me as though he was ever getting beat. It’s a positive too that he seems to relish a battle; he never wins by too much and I do get the feeling there’s a bit left in the tank. You need a top jockey on board to win a Derby and we certainly have that. His draw in 3 isn’t ideal but we’ve seen recently that a really low draw isn’t as negative as it used to be, especially if your jockey knows how to ride this track. In a race where I don’t think there’s an outstanding candidate, he looks a nice each way bet.
Tips
Back The Foxes (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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