Amazingly despite five wins in seven matches Brisbane Heat go into their last Big Bash League match of the season on Thursday still with a chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. They will need to beat the Melbourne Stars by a landslide and hope results go their way but while there is life there is hope.
The Stars are near enough into the semi-finals. One more win from either of their last two games will see them into the last four and if they win here then Saturday’s match against the Scorchers will be a playoff to host a semi.
Melbourne Stars are on a run of four wins on the bounce and those four wins have been pretty comfortable but we’ve reached that time in the season where their squad is stretched due to international call ups so this could be a dangerous match for them.
They dealt well with their absences against the Melbourne Renegades last time out but since then they have lost John Hastings to Australia so their bowling resources in particular are being tested. Dan Worrall could be the man to replace the Duke in the side.
Brisbane Heat won their last match to keep the slimmest of hopes alive in the competition. If we are honest we have to admit they beat a thoroughly injury ravaged Sydney Sixers side but a win is a win and gives them some confidence with which to take into this match.
The key to that success was a clearer plan with the ball. That plan was made easier to execute because their batsmen had put up a decent total. Joe Burns returned for that game and had a big impact on the match and to win without Chris Lynn contributing is something else they can take from the game and build on here.
Not surprisingly Daniel Vettori has named the same squad for this fixture and it would be equally surprising if they were to make any changes to the starting side unless there is a late injury.
I’m not sure we can take a whole lot from the Heat’s win over the Sixers but they might just be getting the Stars at the right time. Brisbane Heat have won the last three meetings between these two although they have all been in Brisbane so it will be interesting to see if they can maintain their dominance in Melbourne.
I actually think the Heat can stay close here. I think this might be a high scoring match because the Heat’s bowling still doesn’t convince me but the Stars are inconvenienced by Hastings’ international call up so the batsmen on show look much more dangerous than the bowling attacks.
I still can’t bring myself to back the Heat to win but they get a decent start on the handicap and that just about interests me here. If they bat second they have to get within 16 runs which is a large number in a 20 over game and if they bat first we need them to get six wickets which given that Faulkner and Maxwell are away is perfectly possible so I’ll dabble on the visitors on the handicap.
Back Brisbane Heat (+4.5wickets/16.5runs) to beat Melbourne Stars for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
