This week sees the penultimate tournament of the PGA Tour season taking place as the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings battle it out to get into the top 30 to make it to the Tour Championship next week.
The BMW Championship is this week’s event and like the opening tournament of the playoffs series this has moved venue so we’re off to the outskirts of Chicago this week for what should be a high quality event.
Billy Horschel is the defending champion this week and given that he is outside the top 30 in the rankings this is a huge tournament for him. He is 100/1 to defend his title but he will be doing it on a different course to the one he won on.
With the season drawing to a conclusion the big boys are all out to play this week including my idea of the top four in the world of Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler. The likes of Henrik Stenson, Zach Johnson and Bubba Watson will be looking to have a say here too.
Day begins the tournament as the 15/2 favourite to win with McIlroy a bit bigger at 9/1. Spieth starts off as a huge looking 12/1 albeit off the back of two missed cuts. Stenson is the same price and Fowler, winner in Boston two weeks ago is a 16/1 shot. It is 20/1 bar those five.
Conway Farms Golf Club is a par 71 which measures 7,198 yards which is 49 yards longer than when this course last hosted the tournament in 2013. This is the home course of Luke Donald and he has been quoted as saying you have to find the fairways on this course because with the rough made of fescue if you don’t find the fairways you could lose sight of your ball so the punishment is extreme.
Donald also suggests this is a typical golf course once you’ve found the fairways so there is no doubt the straighter hitters are at an advantage over the wayward bombers this week. That plays true when we think Zach Johnson won here in 2013.
Not many golfers hit the ball straighter than Jim Furyk and he is my main bet this week. Furyk carded a 59 here in 2013 so when he gets hot he can tear this golf course up. He will arrive in Illinois in good form having finished tied for fourth at TPC Boston which was his third top four in his last five starts.
Furyk drives the ball straight as a die and only a couple of players are ahead of him in the proximity to the pin statistic. He had the sole lead after 54 holes around here in 2013 but faded on Sunday. That was a regular theme for him around that time but since then he’s won again and if he gets in contention this week I fancy him to get the job done at a solid 20/1.
Another man who was in that tie for fourth in Boston is Hunter Mahan and that shows me he is coming back to form. He’ll be looking for a big finish here to preserve his status of having played in every FedEx Cup playoff event since the system came into life on the PGA Tour.
If he is in form then this course should suit him because he is another who is very good off the tee and when on the greens he usually needs no invitation to hole putts. We’ve seen a few players struggle for the season but then come alive in the postseason and land the big cheque and Mahan certainly has the ability to be the 2015 runner. He was tied for fourth here in 2013 and with that in mind I like him at his price this week.
I took Kevin Kisner a couple of weeks ago in Boston and he ran just outside the top 10 but that was a second improved week in a row so I’m not going to abandon him while he’s on an upward curve.
In truth there isn’t much I can add to my write up in Boston except that all aspects of his game have shown significant improvement in the last few weeks and I still think he’ll have a major say in the next two weeks. I’ll back that it comes here.
Finally I’m going to take a long shot who meets all the statistical criteria and that comes in the shape of Jason Bohn. Bohn sits fifth in driving accuracy and third in proximity to the hole on the PGA Tour this season so if he can find his putting boots then he’s entitled to go really well around here.
Bohn missed the cut last week but prior to that he had four top 13 finishes in his last four regular PGA Tour events so he’s in excellent form at the minute and on a course which should suit, the man from Alabama University should put up a bold show at a huge price.
Back J.Furyk to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back H.Mahan to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back K.Kisner to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 56.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-5)
Back J.Bohn to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-5)
