Just 50 remain in the race for the FedExCup and that will be whittled down to 30 this week when the penultimate tournament of the PGA Tour season takes place when the BMW Championship is played out just outside of Chicago.
Patrick Cantlay won this title for a second year in a row in 2022 and he’ll be looking for the ultimate boost heading to East Lake next week once again but the other 49 players in the field have had good campaigns and will be out to beat him.
Recent Winners
2022 – Patrick Cantlay
2021 – Patrick Cantlay
2020 – Jon Rahm
2019 – Justin Thomas
2018 – Keegan Bradley
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Zach Johnson
The Course
We move back to Olympia Fields Country Club for the tournament this week. This fine track last hosted the tournament in 2020 when Jon Rahm came out on top in a high scoring tussle with Dustin Johnson. Just five players finished under par that week and only two more were even so this can be a very tough track. The leaderboard in 2020 was made up of pure drivers with some length to them with Joaquin Niemann and Tony Finau among those who also finished under par for the week.
The course is a par 70 which can stretch to 7,366 yards and the rough is significant as it should be for a tournament of this magnitude. The average drive here in 2020 was 299 yards but that was largely due to the ball going nowhere once it left the fairway. Those who split the centre of the course made hay. This is a real tough track from the second shot in though so things like a good short game and bogey avoidance might have even more significance this week.
The Field
50 remain in the hunt for the FedExCup and all of the players eligible are taking their chance this week. For those at the top of the standings this week will be all about winning and having control of their own destiny when it comes to the Tour Championship next week. Those less fortunate will be looking for a good week to get them into the top 30 to go to East Lake and then take their chances from way down the field when they get there.
The usual big names are all in the field this week from the world number one Scottie Scheffler to the defending champion Patrick Cantlay, both of whom have Ryder Cup form to play for as well. Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy will definitely be in Rome next month and they spearhead a European charge which includes Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton. Max Homa, Collin MOrikawa and Xander Schauffele will all be hoping for a win to boost their FedEx chances.
Market Leaders
It is Rory McIlroy who will tee it up on Thursday as the 15/2 favourite to win the title. McIlroy definitely ticks the driving box around here and off the back of a solid week at TPC Southwind last week his position in the market is probably justified. As ever in recent times though there has to be concerns about his performances on Sunday, especially in this part of the world. I think he’s a fair favourite but the calibre up against him is strong enough that I don’t want to get involved at the prices.
The market finally looks like it has turned its back on Scottie Scheffler with the American 8/1 second favourite to get back on track this week. This course really should suit the strengths of his game given that his long game has been fantastic all season but whether he has it on the greens is the concern, as it has been for quite some time now. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a course like this which renders some of the field impotent is where he gets back on track but I’d still like to see more from his putter before I get involved.
The defending champion here is effectively Jon Rahm as he won the last time the tour was here. He is 9/1 to follow up and win here again. He wasn’t really anywhere in the event until he carded a 64 in the final round. If he has a round like that up his sleeve this week then he is going to take a whole lot of stopping. The concern is that the Spaniard hasn’t really looked like winning for a while. Even when he moved into contention at The Open, Brian Harman had already flown the field so he might be a touch short.
The actual defending champion this week is Patrick Cantlay and he will tee off as a 10/1 chance to win the title for a third year in a row. I think it is fair to say that the American had been quite quiet until last week where he finished second in behind Lucas Glover so maybe he is peaking at the right time in the season once again. Cantlay certainly knows how to win these playoff events. He has an excellent record in them and probably shouldn’t be ruled out even at this price.
Main Bets
Tommy Fleetwood has looked an absolute winner in waiting for the last couple of months but he is still not over the line on the PGA Tour. I would expect him to threaten again this week though. We know all about the long game of the Englishman and that is going to stand him in good stead here but what will also inspire him is the fact that he led the field with the putter last week. If he found something that clicked and that putter remains as hot this week then a player who has finished second in majors before certainly knows how to grind his way around a tough test with a major layout feel to it. I think Fleetwood is itching to get his hands on a trophy and he might just get his wish this week.
Max Homa had a bit of a quiet spell midway through the season but that was because he became a dad for the first time but the nappy factor is working its magic once again as he finished in the top 10 of a major for the first time at The Open and followed that up with another successful week in Memphis last week. We know from earlier in the season that Homa can tame the toughest of beasts in terms of courses in front of him and there aren’t many tougher around than this. He looks to be in the sort of form which will get him back among the circle of winners.
Outsiders
I’ll play a couple of outsiders this week but only because one is an absolute monster price. The first outsider is Cam Davis. We see it all the time that the biggest thing you can take into this latter part of the season is form. We have often seen players come from nowhere to be a factor throughout the playoffs and there aren’t many tracking better than the Australian without winning. I like Davis here because he has length off the tee and so form figures of T10-T7-T6 in the last three weeks is more than encouraging. He would have been a lot better than T6 last week had he not lost ground to the field on the greens. Those greens were known by many though whereas these aren’t so if Davis can perform the same with the long clubs he should be a threat once again here.
The monster price is a bit of a shot in the dark in Kurt Kitayama who has absolutely no form whatsoever to speak of but this is a man who won on a tough track at Bay Hill and if you can win on that layout then when the stars align you can win anywhere. Kitayama is long enough off the tee and when he drives it well the rest of his game follows. Despite his win at Bay Hill, Kitayama fell outside the top 30 in the standings last week and he needs a big result here to be at East Lake next week. I’ll pay to see if the stars align for him in this one.
Tips
Back T.Fleetwood to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back M.Homa to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back K.Kitayama to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back C.Davis to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
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