It is the penultimate week of the PGA Tour season this week as the BMW Championship takes place. It isn’t just a big week for those with their eyes on the FedEx Cup title either. At the end of this week Captain Love III will name his first three Ryder Cup wildcards and a big week for those not yet in the side could sway his mind.
70 men have qualified for the tournament although only 69 will tee it up but at the end of the week only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings will progress to the Tour Championship in two weeks time.
Recent Winners
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Zach Johnson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Justin Rose
2010 – Dustin Johnson
2009 – Tiger Woods
2008 – Camilo Villegas
2007 – Tiger Woods
2006 – Trevor Immelman
The Course
This is a tournament that sees a rotation in use and we go back to Crooked Stick for the first time since 2012 this week. Rory McIlroy won around the track on that occasion but the course is probably best known for being the site that John Daly won the USPGA Championship on in 1991.
The course itself can only be described as an absolute monster. It is a par 70 which measures 7,567 yards in full. The fairways are pretty large and the rough not really anything strong enough to be a factor initially although rain is forecast for the early part of the tournament which could make it harder to play off.
It will certainly make the course play its full yardage so we’re looking for players who can get it out there to have an advantage. These are small greens so a decent short game isn’t a bad thing either but length is very much the order of the day.
The Field
69 of the remaining 70 players left alive this season are hit. Henrik Stenson is the one who isn’t. He is guaranteed to make it through to Atlanta so he doesn’t need to tee it up this week. He has chosen to rest his ailing knee.
Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Billy Horschel and Justin Rose are among the former champions in the field this week while all eight automatic Ryder Cup qualifiers are also teeing it up too.
Market Leaders
After his excellent weekend to win in Boston, Rory McIlroy will begin the week as the 11/2 favourite. If you believe he is back in business then there isn’t a lot not to like about the man who won here the last time the course hosted the tournament. He’s a little short for my money though given the quality opposing him.
Jason Day is the 8/1 second favourite but he hasn’t looked at his best in the playoffs so far. That said he is the defending champion and players always get a little extra when their title is on the line and with accuracy not being much of a factor here Day shouldn’t be ruled out.
Dustin Johnson is the next man in the betting at 10/1 and I like his chances a lot even though his price is a little short for me in this quality of field. He hits it miles and stats well on the rest of the game and should his short game stand up once again he could take all the beating.
Adam Scott and Jordan Spieth are both 16/1 to land another title. Scott has been in good form and another strong challenge wouldn’t be a surprise but this doesn’t look like a course Spieth will be able to sparkle on.
It is 25/1 bar those named in what should be another excellent week with so many players playing for so much beyond just winning the tournament.
Main Bets
I’m going with a couple of main bets this week and the first of those is on the USPGA champion Jimmy Walker to come through on a track not too dissimilar to the one he won his major title on.
It is fair to say Walker struggled either side of that win but he looked back to nearer his better form last week and this course should suit him nicely. He has leaked the driver a little bit this year but there is oceans of space off the tee around here. We saw at Baltusrol how good his iron play is and his short game stood out last week so I’m liking the PGA champion this week.
The other main bet is on a man who has shown some decent form with a couple of solid outings in the playoffs on courses which might not suit as much as this one should. That is Gary Woodland. Woodland’s strength comes with the driver and length he gets into it off the tee and firing into the greens he tends to be fine.
We know he has shortcomings with the short game but if he can go flag hunting from the positions that he gets into off the tee then there is every chance he will deliver another strong week to set him up nicely for East Lake.
Outsiders
I’m also going with two outsiders who are both three figure prices but not without a chance in this field and on this track. We’ll begin with Ryan Palmer. He needs a big week if his season is to extend to Atlanta. He was in the middle of a second good tournament in a row last week but got caught out like so many with the wind in the final round.
He should be fine this week though and the length he crunches the ball off the tee is going to put him in good positions to score well. Length alone is going to be huge this week so I want Palmer on my side especially if he reproduces the first three rounds of last week.
Finally I started the season by backing Smylie Kaufman to win the second tournament of the year so I may as well mirror that at the back end of the campaign and take him to win the penultimate tournament. Kaufman is a huge hitter but the rest of his game isn’t far behind as we saw at Augusta among other times this season.
He had a good week last week but let it slip on Monday but that was a much improved effort on what we’ve seen from him recently. All season long we’ve seen him bully the longer courses and I fancy with a return to form last week we will see him do exactly that again this week.
Tips
Back J.Walker to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back G.Woodland to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back R.Palmer to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back S.Kaufman to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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