After a brilliant starter to the weekend, the main events at the Breeders Cup meeting take place on Saturday night when the racing world comes together for a bunch of races which should throw up some incredible action.
The Breeders Cup Classic is the big race on the card with European interest in the form of City of Troy but the support card is about as good as it gets and having had a good look through the races we like bets in five of them including the big one.
7.00 Del Mar: Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
A smallish field to start the night with Society the favourite, having disposed of 2 of tonight’s rivals in good style in her last race, Scylla coming home second. However, it’s the 3rd horse home Vahva that I think has the best chance. She recorded two excellent wins & very good RPRs to boot at Churchill Downs, including a Grade 1 win ahead of Alva Starr. She definitely had excuses last time out as she hugged the rail & it was evident that was the slowest part of the course. I expect her to make amends here & I think she’ll go very close in this from a good draw. Ways And Means will be hard to keep out of the frame too but she’s drawn wider than ideal in 9 so I’m happy to overlook her chance.
Tips
Back Vahva (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 6.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back her here:
7.41 Del Mar: Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
I can’t wait for this race, it looks a cracker. Quite honestly, US hope Cogburn could be a superstar & it’s going to take something very special to beat him. Bradsell & Believing should, on paper, give him most to do but the former is drawn too wider & the latter has the opposite issue if she breaks slowly from gate 1. I do like the chances of the Buick-ridden Star Of Mystery but am instead going to go for a massive shock & side with Arzak. He was 6th in this last year, finishing less than 2 lengths behind the winner, despite a poor draw in 11. He’s drawn much better today in 3 & has done well enough over the season to suggest a big run is on the cards. The fast pace is going to suit & hopefully he can get closer to Cogburn than he did back in June although he did stay on better than the rest of the field to grab 2nd. Disappointing last time out, he was pitched out wide so with conditions more in his favour today, he could outrun his massive odds.
Tips
Back Arzak (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 41.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
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9.01 Del Mar: Breeders Cup Turf
Rebels Romance bids to regain his crown having won this race 2 years ago at Keeneland. He looks sure to go well for Charlie Appleby having already won the Sheema Classic as well as another couple of Group 1’s this year. There are plenty of chances in here, including Emily Upjohn & Luxembourg, but I’m siding with the Japanese hope, Shahryar. He was 3rd behind Auguste Rodin in this 12 months ago & looked a marginally unlucky loser having switched off the rail for a run when, in actuality, the gap came on the inside & the winner took advantage. He’s been lightly raced since, finishing 2nd to Rebels Romance in the Sheema Classic, running a cracker. Off the track then for almost 5 months, he ran no more than an average race over an inadequate trip but this set-up will suit better. That run will have brought him on & back up to his favoured trip, from a decent draw in 3, I’m hoping he can go 2 better than last year.
Tips
Back Shahryar (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
9.41 Del Mar: Breeders Cup Classic
The highlight of the weekend, it’s the Classic & all the talk this side of the pond is around City Of Troy whilst, over in the US, it’s all about Fierceness. We could be in for the most epic of battles &, of the two, I’d favour the US challenger. My worry with City Of Troy is that he’s yet to race on dirt & has a tendency to hang, whilst with Fierceness, it’s all about the fractions given he likes to go forward in his races. I’m going to take them with 2 at each way prices, the first being Sierra Leone who has already twice finished behind Fierceness this term. He likes to sit off the pace & finishes strongly, and his form looks solid. 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont & 3rd in the Travers is pretty impressive & I’m hoping he finally gets the day in the spotlight with a win in his biggest test to date. I’m not worried by his wide draw given her late running style & with one of the best in the business aboard, he looks a solid each way play. At ridiculous odds, I’m also throwing a dart at Senor Buscador. Another who likes to sit miles off the pace, he won the world’s richest race back in March, the Saudi Cup when coming with a late relentless challenge down the outside to prevail narrowly. Back in the US, 7 furlongs proved too short at this track whilst he was massively disappointing in the California Crown but I’m prepared to overlook that given his trainer had already said the set up of the race was totally wrong & he could not see him being competitive. I expect it will be totally different today & whilst it might be a stretch to suggest he’s real win material, his odds make him well worthy of each way investment.
Tips
Back Sierra Leone (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Boylesports (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
Back Senor Buscador (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 Betfair (⅕ odds 1-4)
11.45 Del Mar: Breeders Cup Mile
3 wins on the spin for Charlie Appleby in this race & he bids to make it 4 with favourite Notable Speech here. Matron Stakes winner Porta Fortuna looks set to give him most to do with Carl Spackler the shortest in the betting of the home challenge. However, a horse that has twice finished behind Carl Spackler this year is the one I like in the shape of More Than Looks. He was 6th in this last year, finishing well after sitting last for much of the race & has been very lightly raced since. He made his seasonal reappearance after more than 8 months off when just over 3 lengths 2nd but improved in getting much closer to the winner next time out, the gap was a length. With a fast pace pretty much guaranteed, this late closer will be suited by the shape of race & with more improvement to come from such a lightly raced type, he looks a very nice each way price.
Tips
Back More Than Looks (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Skybet (⅕ odds 1-4)
