The PGA Tour heads back to Texas this week for the Byron Nelson tournament, the last stop off before the second major of the season comes around. This is often a keenly contested tournament and hopefully this renewal will be no different.
K-H Lee has won this tournament for the last two years and is the only winner of the tournament at its current venue. He will be up against it in his quest for the three-peat from both the other players and the weather.
Recent Winners
2022 – K-H Lee
2021 – K-H Lee
2019 – Sung Kang
2018 – Aaron Wise
2017 – Billy Horschel
2016 – Sergio Garcia
2015 – Steven Bowditch
2014 – Brendon Todd
2013 – Sang-moon Bae
2012 – Jason Dufner
The Course
TPC Craig Ranch is the venue for this tournament for the third time. The course itself is a par 72 which measures 7,414 yards and one thing to always bear in mind whenever a tournament is in Texas is the winds that often blow. For that reason the greens will run quite slow this week so that the impact of the wind on the surfaces is marginalised. Rain is expected to blow through over the weekend too so conditions could get tricky.
Generally in Texas the premium is on hitting the greens. The run off areas and trouble around the greens can make scrambling quite difficult but inevitably players will be required to scramble at times so good iron players should come to the fore. Strokes gained on approach has been a big thing in the two years so far with the winning scores being -25 and -26 and it is expected to be low once again here so it makes sense to have those who can get the ball to the hole on side as well.
The Field
I don’t think anyone to do with the tournament would have expected a top level field this week with so many designated events of which this isn’t one, and then the next major of the season taking place next week. The profile of the tournament was hit when an injury denied Jordan Spieth the chance to tee it up but Scottie Scheffler is in the field and that certainly gives it a much more positive look than it might otherwise have had.
There is no getting away from the fact that the field here is nothing like as strong as it was last year though. Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day and Adam Scott are three household names in it while veterans such as Matt Kuchar, Jimmy Walker and Ryan Palmer have shown signs of form at times this term. The Korean pair of the defending champion K-H Lee and the exciting Tom Kim also add some star quality to a field that seriously lacks depth.
Market Leaders
Ordinarily in a field like this you could make the argument for the 4/1 favourite Scottie Scheffler being a penalty kick this week. It might still play out as being the case but the one caveat to consider is whether he is here to win the tournament in a week where there could be a number of delays or whether he just wants to appease his home state but really he has got his mind on the major next week. That is enough of a concern for me to leave a 4/1 poke alone.
Tyrrell Hatton is a 12/1 shot to win the tournament this week. He played very well at Quail Hollow last week and you would imagine if he has that level of all-round game with him here then he is going to be very competitive but generally his better form comes on tracks where the scoring doesn’t race away from everyone. The big positive is he will handle whatever the weather throws at him but there is no real juice in his price.
Two international talents come next in the betting at 16/1. They are Tom Kim and Jason Day. The former has gone right off the boil after making a massive impression when he burst onto the scene and hasn’t had a top 15 finish in almost four months so he’s easy to swerve. Day would be much more in my sort of thinking but if it is going to be cold and damp we saw how his chances at The Masters faded when the bad weather came so I can leave him alone as well.
The former Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama is 22/1 to win the tournament this season but he is another who might just be here to work on his game and fulfil some obligations with more than half of an eye on next week rather than any desperation to win here. The bigger issue is the injury which kept him out of the Wells Fargo last week but if he does tee it up he was third here last year and in a field of this weakness he should be a standout contender.
Main Bets
I’ve been keen on Matt Kuchar a couple of times this season and I’ll add this tournament to the list as well. Kuchar ranks as the best player on the tour around the greens on the PGA Tour this season and scrambling is a big thing here. He is one of the best scramblers because he doesn’t miss many greens to begin with and when he is on the greens he is usually pretty good. We also know that he is good in the wind and he has had a couple of decent spins around here already. This is the weakest field this course has had on it and I think Kuchar is more than capable of taking this down.
The other player I will chance as a main bet is Seamus Power. He has played well here against those two stronger fields so even though his form hasn’t been the best this season he should in theory run well against this field. Power is good in the wind and the softness of the course will really suit his aggressiveness and he has shown he can score around this track. It definitely wasn’t a negative that he finished in the top 20 at Quail Hollow last week and offered some of his better stuff for a while and he is definitely overpriced in this company.
Outsiders
Another one who is in good form is Jimmy Walker. The Texan native is naturally going to be up for a tournament in his home state and we saw that in the Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. Walker has struggled with consistency for the past few years after the illness which has hampered his health but he has four solid efforts in the book coming in here and the putting numbers he is putting up is very impressive. I’ve often thought that Walker raises his game in Texas and with some momentum beginning to build in him I’m happy to take a chance on him in this weak field.
The other one I will chance is Cameron Champ who might enjoy the soft conditions with it making the course play longer and allow his length to come into play. There is a ridiculous all or nothing to the results of Champ so we might know our fate after nine holes. He has made just three cuts on the season but he has converted two of those into top 10 finishes which has to be a positive. He has shot 65 and 66 around here and if he can put a couple of those rounds together in a weaker field and in conditions which might suit him better I’ll pay to see how he goes.
Tips
Back M.Kuchar to win Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back S.Power to win Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Walker to win Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Champ to win Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-10)
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