The final of the Champions Trophy will be played out on Sunday and despite the tournament being hosted by Pakistan it will conclude in Dubai when India take on New Zealand for the title of the 50 over competition.
These two met in the group stage and India won that match so they will be looking for a repeat of that here. New Zealand will be hoping to bring something different to the party and cause what would be seen as a big upset.
India
India have come through to this final in perfect fashion in terms of the fact that they have played four matches and won the lot and in truth you would be hard pushed to argue that they were in trouble in any of those games. The semi-final got a bit tight in the final 10 overs of the run chase in terms of runs required and balls remaining but there was always enough wickets in hand to get them over the line and they were able to take advantage of that in the end.
We all know about the obvious advantages that India have had in this tournament but they still had to put them to full use and they have done that and they will begin this final as huge favourites to get their hands on this competition 16 months after they failed in the final of the 50 over World Cup. If they are going to do that their bowling will need to remain on point because the opposing batters can be dangerous. India have enough batters in form to get the job done if that is the case.
New Zealand
I think New Zealand deserve a lot of credit for making it through to this final. They started in comfortable fashion in the competition with wins over Pakistan and then Bangladesh which were as convincing as you would have expected them to be but then they had to start trotting between Pakistan and Dubai and back again and that is when it could have unravelled for them. They lost their last group match against India but they were already through at that point so how much we can read into that remains to be seen.
Given all of the travelling that they had to do, the semi-final against South Africa could have been a real stumbling block but they absolutely dominated it from start to finish and if they can perform to that level here, albeit in completely different conditions, then they are entitled to be a real factor in this final. It goes without saying that the Kiwis will need to bat well to have any chance in this final but if they can do that they might just get the job done.
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Team News
India aren’t expected to make any changes from their comfortable semi-final win which means that they are going to go in with the extra spinner and look to strangle things in the middle overs once again.
New Zealand had a doubt over the availability of Matt Henry after their semi-final when he looked to go down on his shoulder but he was seen training on the eve of the match so the outsiders are expected to name the same XI as well.
Betting
If you have been following me in throughout this competition you will be sitting with a bet on New Zealand to win this final at 8/1 but we are on them each way and they have already brought the place money in so I’m prepared to let that punt run and see if they can deliver the full goods in this match. That means I don’t need to get involved in the match betting for this final but I will take a punt in one of the side markets.
However this final plays out in terms of who wins it, I think this will be another lower scoring match but the way I’m going to play it is taking India to hit less than 28.5 boundaries. In the reverse meeting between these two they batted first and could only manage 22 boundaries and in the semi-final where they chased the highest score on this ground in the tournament so far they only managed 23 boundaries. I think the New Zealand attack is better equipped for these conditions than the Australia one and I don’t see the pitch playing that great given the cricket that has been here over the last couple of months so that line looks too high to me.
Tips
Back India – Under 28.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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