The PGA Tour heads to Texas for the final time this season this week when the Charles Schwab Challenge takes place at a familiar stop of Colonial Country Club, one of the better tests that remains on the circuit.
Davis Riley tamed what is a tough course last year to win this tournament by five shots and he is in the field looking to make a successful defence of his crown but there are some big names who will be out to take it from him.
Recent Winners
2024 – Davis Riley
2023 – Emiliano Grillo
2022 – Sam Burns
2021 – Jason Kokrak
2020 – Daniel Berger
2019 – Kevin Na
2018 – Justin Rose
2017 – Kevin Kisner
2016 – Jordan Spieth
2015 – Chris Kirk
The Course
The Colonial Country Club will forever be remembered as the first course the PGA Tour used on its return to action. This is a regular stop for the tour although it is usually used a little earlier in the year than this. The one thing we know is needed around here is accuracy. This is a treelined track where the grass tends to be juicy, and is one of the few tracks on the PGA Tour these days which needs to be played from the fairways.
If you look at the list of winners above, they are all clean ball strikers or exceptional putters and in some cases both, so that gives us an early indication of what to look for. There have been slight changes to the course since last year so it remains a par 70 which now measures 7,289 yards so it is far from long by modern standards. The rough is said to be three inches so it is significant. As ever when the tour heads to Texas the wind is a factor and is set to deliver a significant breeze for the weekend. We are all set up for a big week for the ball strikers. Bentgrass greens being used for just the second time could only further emphasise the need to strike it well.
The Field
The world number one Scottie Scheffler always tends to turn up for the Texan events and even though he won the USPGA Championship as recently as Sunday evening, he is in the field for this tournament which gives it a huge profile boost. We also have the defending champion Davis Riley in the field and a whole number of past winners around here including the likes of Daniel Berger, Chris Kirk, Jordan Spieth and Sam Burns all teeing it up.
There isn’t a strong European charge going at this tournament this week but of the players who are here from that part of the world Tommy Fleetwood, Aaron Rai, Robert MacIntyre and Harry Hall are all of interest. The same could be said of the international players in the field but former Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Mackenzie Hughes and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are among those who will fancy their chances of a strong week.
Market Leaders
There was never any danger of Scottie Scheffler not being the favourite for this tournament but hot off the heels of winning his third major of his career he is no bigger than 5/2 to follow up that success with another here. Scheffler has surprisingly never won this tournament but he has been on the leaderboard a lot and you would imagine it is only a matter of time before the world number one comes out on top in what is as good as a home game for him. Even so, that 5/2 is plenty short enough for me.
Daniel Berger has won around here before and given that there is a real school of thought that course experience is huge here he certainly ticks that box. He will therefore be popular at 22/1 this week. As well as winning here he has been in the top 25 on another couple of occasions and he is enjoying a decent season having made the top three twice and sitting in the top 15 of the FedExCup standings. He could be the value to Scheffler.
Jordan Spieth is another who is no stranger to teeing it up in the Texas events and he has won this tournament in the past too. He missed the cut on his latest attempt to win the Grand Slam last week so will be fuelled by that and will want to get back to contending in tournaments here. As well as winning in 2016 he has been second here three times and in total he has eight top 10 finishes. His form might not be what it once was but he can’t be ignored here at 25/1.
Tommy Fleetwood is also 25/1 and the only other player in the field who is shorter than 28/1 to win this week. Fleetwood certainly has the skill set to go well around here as he is a pure ball striker. The Englishman sits at 10 in strokes gained from tee to green on the PGA Tour this season which is usually a decent statistic to use around here. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him contend this week but he doesn’t win enough to justify 25/1 quotes in my mind.
Main Bets
Harris English returned a healthy profit for me last week and I see no reason not to go with him again here. He struck the ball brilliantly well at Quail Hollow but for three rounds he just couldn’t get the putter hot. When he finally warmed it up he closed out with a 65 and around there that is a decent score. If that putter starts this week in better touch then based on how well he was hitting the ball at the PGA I think he has every chance here. There is no weakness in the English bag and if he putts better for longer here he could be very tough to beat. He’s my first main bet.
Brian Harman has already won in Texas this season when he took down the Texas Open and actually the former Open winner has a really good record here without winning the tournament. Harman is good in the breeze which certainly bodes well especially as the wind is expected to be up over the weekend. Harman is a very underrated ball striker and a solid putter so he ticks pretty much every box that I want him to. He wasn’t in contention at Quail Hollow last week so he didn’t use up much mental energy which helps too and I think he is a solid play here. I’ll take him as my second bet.
Outsiders
My two outsider bets this week both had decent weeks at the USPGA Championship before fading in the second half of the tournament. Alex Smalley is the first of those bets and it is no surprise he went well last week. He is a Charlotte native but he is also ninth in the ball striking category on the PGA Tour and that certainly bodes well for him here. Ball strikers leap over those who don’t hit it well around this course so that is good. He looked like he was rolling the ball nicely on the greens last week but ultimately I just think the magnitude of the tournament caught up with him in the end. I don’t see that being the case here though so he’s my first outsider bet.
My second outsider bet is the man who actually sits fifth in the ball striking statistic in Michael Thorbjornsen. He would have to buck the trend that you need course experience if he is going to win the tournament but at the prices I will be more than happy to bag some place money. I do think he has the potential to win this though. He is long off the tee, which isn’t really necessary here, but he is accurate in his long game. The leading amateur is slowly getting to grips with the pro ranks and was second in the Corales where being in front probably came too soon for him and he went better than his overall results in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and USPGA Championship suggested. We won’t be getting three figure prices on this fella very much longer but I’ll strike while we still can and have a go with him here.
Tips
Back H.English to win Charles Schwab Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back B.Harman to win Charles Schwab Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back A.Smalley to win Charles Schwab Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back M.Thorbjornsen to win Charles Schwab Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
