The opening race on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Neptune Novices Hurdle which as the title suggests is a hurdle race for the Novices. The race is run over 2m5f on the Old Course at Cheltenham and acts as a good starter for a busy day of action. The race has been a showcase for the Irish in recent times but it is the British who head the market this year.
Recent Winners
2016 – Yorkhill 3/1
2015 – Windsor Park 9/2
2014 – Faugheen 6/4f
2013 – The New One 7/2
2012 – Simonsig 2/1f
2011 – First Lieutenant 7/1
2010 – Peddlers Cross 7/1
2009 – Mikael D’Haguenet 5/2f
2008 – Fiveforthree 7/1
2007 – Massini’s Maguire 20/1
Guide
Only three of the last 10 favourites have won this race and six of those 10 renewals have been won by two lengths or less so this is a race which develops into a thrilling battle a lot of the time. Winners of this race have tended to go on and compete strongly in the top class races in future festivals so this is a race where we can get an early guide for next year’s major races. Neon Wolf looks set to go off the favourite for Harry Fry.
Betting
This is a race where it pays to follow the market. The longest priced winner of the last 9 runnings is 7/1, but only 3 of those winners have come from the very top of the market. The Irish have accounted for 6 of those winners, with 4 of them from the yard of Willie Mullins.
I see no reason to deviate from following the market and, of the front 4 in the betting, only 1 of them is Irish trained. Bacardys is the horse and he is, of course, trained by Mullins. He looks like a horse that will be suited by the step up in trip having finished 3rd in last season’s Bumper, staying on best of all up the hill. His performances this season have backed that up, particularly when taking the 2 mile 2 furlong Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle last time out. He’s had just 3 starts over hurdles, winning the last 2 having fallen first time out. The first win wasn’t overly impressive but he had a shoe issue so the performance is better than it appears but it was the way he kept on in the Deloitte that marked him out as an ideal candidate for this. He’s sure to have progressed since that run and the extra 3 furlongs on a stiffer track and better ground appear to be perfect.
The likely favourite is Harry Fry’s Neon Wolf and he’s won both his hurdle starts so far. He has looked impressive in both of those runs, including a Grade 2 win last time out but soft ground has played a part both times. Neon Wolf really could be anything but at a price under 2/1, he’s no certainty to repeat his form on very different ground at a much more demanding track. Bacardys’ course experience make him a more solid selection at a slightly bigger price.
These 2 dominate the market with Messire Des Obeaux and Willoughby Court next best at around 10/1. The former has some good form to his name and has battled well to get his nose in front on 2 of his last 3 starts but it was disappointing to see him caught close home at odds on last time out. Willoughby Court is from the Ben Pauling yard and won well last time in the Grade 2 race at Warwick. However, all his form has come on soft ground and I think he will find it tougher to dictate from the front on this quicker ground.
There doesn’t appear to be anything else of interest lurking down the betting so I’m pretty certain the winner will come from these 4. All in all, Bacardys rates a good bet and is worth investment at 3/1.
Tips
Back Bacardys to win for a 2/10 stake at 4.00 Skybet BOG – MONEY BACK IF IT LOSES!!!!
Back it here:
Neptune Hurdle – Bookies Offers
BETFAIR
NEW CUSTOMERS – DAY TWO
NEON WOLF TO WIN THE NEPTUNE – A HUGE 14/1
OFFER ENDS – WEDNESDAY 14th MARCH AT 13.30.
Click on the image to open an account with Betfair. See Betfair for full details.
PADDY POWER
NEW CUSTOMERS – DAY TWO
NEON WOLF TO WIN THE NEPTUNE – A HUGE 14/1
OFFER ENDS – WEDNESDAY 14th MARCH AT 13.30.
Click on the image to open an account with PP.
See Paddy Power for full details.
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