Betting without the favourite proved fruitful in the first Championship race at the Festival with Melon landing the spoils & that’s the angle we’ll be looking at in the Champion Chase.
On paper, this looks like a straight battle between Altior, Douvan & Min and I’m not sure there’s value in any of them. Altior has won all 12 starts over timber including at the last 2 Festivals beating Min & Buveur D’Air in the 2016 Supreme Novice Hurdle and Cloudy Dreams in last year’s Arkle. He really is top class but I’m a little concerned by the injury scare on Monday. His trainer, Nicky Henderson, assures us he’s 100% but surely there’s a slight doubt. If he’s fit, I feel he wins so I’m taking him out of the equation & looking at the market without the favourite.
New Customers can get Altior at an enhanced 30/1 to win the Champion Chase. Max Stake £1. Winnings paid in free bets. Full T&Cs Apply. 18+|Gamble Aware.
Preview
Douvan & Min are the Mullins pair & both are top class in their own right. Douvan had a similar profile to Altior coming into this race last year having won his last 14 races but was injured & finished only 7th after starting at such prohibitive odds as 2/9. This race marks his comeback &, if back to his best, could make odds of 7/2 look silly but what a risk you’d be taking. So, what of Min? First past the post in his last 5 races but was unimpressive at Leopardstown over Christmas & certainly hasn’t faced a top class rival yet. There just isn’t a betting angle in either of the Mullins runners.
Politologue is below the very top class; he was caste aside by Altior last time out but, before that, won 3 on the spin including the Tingle Creek where he had Ar Mad & Charbel around 6 lengths back. That’s a race I’m definitely interested in with regards to my bets in this & I think the 2 mentioned could turn the tables. There’s also a doubt over Politologue’s liking for the track having failed to shine in 3 attempts here. Special Tiara comes here as the reigning champion but he needs better ground & is passed over.
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Betting
This leads us to our 2 bets at big each way prices in the market without Altior. Charbel is the first one I want on my side. He’s still quite lightly raced & will come here fresh having been saved for this since the Tingle Creek. He was 4th in that race & ran satisfactorily after clouting 2 of the first 4 fences. He certainly shouldn’t be 3 times the price of Politologue, especially as he will appreciate Cheltenham more than that rival. In 2016, he was 5th in the Supreme behind Altior, Min, Buveur D’Air & Tombstone. That’s not a bad list but then you look further down & see that he finished in front of Supasundae, Petit Mouchoir & Bellshill! Last year, he was travelling well in front in the Arkle but for coming to grief 2 from home. His trainer was convinced he’d have won & beaten Altior. I don’t necessarily agree with that but he wouldn’t be far away. Assuming he jumps well & comes here in as good form as he was 12 months ago, he’s a huge price to be in the mix.
Ar Mad is my 2nd bet & he’s another not to have seen the track since the Tingle Creek. He likes to go from the front & I think the slower ground will aid his jumping. I also expect the track will help him settle better than he has & it wouldn’t surprise me to see him stretch the field & he may just hold on to a place. He’ll love the ground, has the cheekpieces on & the trainer is bullish about his chances. In a field of just 8, 33/1 is a decent price to get in the 3.
Tips
Back Charbel in the ‘w/o Altior’ market (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3)
Back Ar Mad in the ‘w/o Altior’ market (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 Betfair (⅕ odds 1-3)
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