TUE 15TH MAR
Cheltenham Festival: Day One
We have already previewed the big race on Day 1, the Champion Hurdle, and our hopes rest with well fancied The New One and lively outsider Camping Ground. Racing gets underway at 1.30pm with the traditional curtain raiser, the Supreme Novices Hurdle, and that is previewed below along with the other races on the card.
1.30pm: Supreme Novices Hurdle
Min is the favourite here and he bids to become the 4th successive winner of this race for Willie Mullins following in the footsteps of Douvan, Vautour and Champagne Fever. Only 1 outright favourite in the last 10 years has taken this and, whilst Min couldn’t have been more impressive in his 2 runs over hurdles, he’s hardly had to beat anything and will need to improve a bundle to land the spoils here.
Nicky Henderson has the next 2 in the market and these are the ones we expect to battle out the finish. Altior is the mount of Nico De Boinville and he’s 4 from 4 over hurdles. In between 2 easy wins, he has had 2 wins where he’s battled to victory. Those qualities will stand him in good stead here with the only niggling doubt being a track absence since December. Buveir D’Air is the other Henderson runner and he’s another unbeaten horse over hurdles, winning both impressively. He quickens well but it is also likely he’ll get further and that’s important for novices trying to get up the Cheltenham hill. Whilst he hacked round on his latest run, he is better judged on his first run over hurdles where he trounced decent opposition, with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th all winning since (the 6th horse home has yet to run again). The ground should be ok at good to soft and he looks to be the value in the opener.
Of the others, Tombstone could go well on this better ground but Charbel, at 25/1, is the best value longshot. Supasundae beat Silver Concorde last time out but both will have to improve significantly to take a hand, whilst Bellshill’s latest run must cast a doubt over his wellbeing.
Back Buveir D’Air (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-3, BOG)
2.10pm: Arkle
Mullins has another favourite here in last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle winner, Douvan. He’s a 4/9 shot and we fully expect him to win like such a short priced favourite should. There really are no grounds to oppose him and the advice is to enjoy a future chasing superstar stroll to victory.
2.50pm: Ultima Handicap Chase
A 24 runner conundrum here and one we can make cases for several, yet none with outstanding claims. The most likely winner appears to be the novice, Out Sam, who looks incredibly well handicapped but 7/1 is no price for a horse yet to run in a handicap chase with only 3 runs over the bigger obstacles to his name. Un Temps Pour Tout is a high class hurdler and, should he transfer that form to fences, he’d look a massive price at 16’s here. He has yet to do that and would surely need deeper ground to show him in his best light.
Horses towards the foot of the weights usually do well here with the last 10 winners all carrying under 11st7lbs, and 7 of those under 11st. At bigger prices, we think last years 5th Indian Castle and Band Of Blood can go well at 33/1 and 25/1 respectively.
3.30pm: Champion Hurdle
See separate previews.
4.10pm: Mares Hurdle
Willie Mullins has won the last 7 runnings of this, 6 of them with Quevega, and is likely to have the winner this year too with Vroum Vroum Mag. She looks to be one of the more likely winning favourites at the Festival having won all 8 races since joining the yard.
There appears to be a lack of depth in this field and we think the 4 most in with a chance of the place money are Aurore D’Estruval, The Govaness and last year’s 2nd and 3rd, Polly Peachum and Bitofapuzzle. Aurore D’Estruval hasn’t done enough in her 2 starts this season, whilst Bitofapuzzle comes into this reverting to hurdles after 3 spins over fences. It must be a gamble as to whether she retains the requisite speed for this so we feel the runners up berth is between Polly Peachum and The Govaness.
They met back in January where Polly Peachum prevailed by a head, giving her opponent 4lb. She’s sure to go well again on this better ground but there’s a suspicion she might need another couple of furlongs. The Govaness is 2.5x the price of Polly Peachum and we think there’s every chance of her turning the tables today. She is also much better on this sort of ground and is 3 from 3 on good ground. She is 2 from 4 at this track and is best judged on a 3 length win in a listed handicap hurdle here last April. On each run since, she has raced on ground too soft for her and 2 of those runs have been over a trip we don’t feel she stays. That includes a 13 length beating by Vroum Vroum Mag last time out over almost 3 miles where she ran well for a long way until fading late on. In an uncompetitive market without the favourite, we think The Govaness represents the best each way value.
Back The Govaness (e/w) without Vroum Vroum Mag for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 with Bet365 (1/4 1-3, BOG)
Back it here:
4.50pm: National Hunt Amateur Riders Chase
A watching brief is advised here. 4 miles at Cheltenham with amateur riders in the plate; you need a special kind of punter to be playing in this sort of race.
If you do want to bet, those at the head of the market do hold solid claims and we have it between the Gordon Elliott trained Noble Endeavour and Jonjo O’Neill’s Minella Rocco.
5.30pm: Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase
This is another race we are sitting out. 20 runners in a handicap and only 4lbs separate the top weight from the bottom weight; that is one hell of a compressed handicap and, on that basis, we’re not even going to attempt to find the winner. Good luck if you do play!
