Cheltenham Festival: Day Three
Having already previewed the World Hurdle, with our selections Whisper and Martello Tower the ones out to upset hotpot Thistlecrack, we take you through the rest of the card. Whilst all eyes will be on Vautour, rerouted from the Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup to the Ryanair Chase, there’s also a trio of 24 runner handicaps to solve. Good luck all!
1.30pm: JLT Novices Chase
A good looking Grade 1 Novice Chase here that is only in its 6th year. All but one of the races has been won by an Irish challenger and the last 4 winners had all won their last start.
4 of the 10 runners head over from Ireland, with Willie Mullins responsible for the 2 main fancies in Outlander and Black Hercules. The first named comes here with a top chance, unbeaten in 3 starts over fences including a Grade 1 win last time up at Leopardstown. So far, he has jumped soundly and looks a certain stayer having won over further in that Grade 1. He also brings some excellent hurdle form to the table too, including a 9 length 3rd on his last start last term to Champion Hurdle 3rd, Nichols Canyon. He ran at the Festival last season so the track should hold no fears and he looks the class horse in this field and is therefore recommended as an each way bet to nothing. He really shouldn’t be out of the first 3.
Black Hercules is the mount of Ruby Walsh and, having won his first 2 chase starts, came unstuck last time. He fell when in command and, whilst that may just be a minor blemish, it remains to be seen whether it has dented his confidence. Zabana is the other Irish challenger with a chance but was firmly put in his place by Outlander last time out and it’s hard to see him turning the tables. Mount Gunnery is the 4th and final Irish raider but his odds of 125/1 tell us everything we need to know.
The English challenge is headed by well fancied Bristol De Mai and Garde La Victoire. Bristol De Mai has looked impressive in winning 4 of his 6 chase starts but he was beaten early on in his chase career by Garde La Victoire, whilst in receipt of 9lbs, and that is a worry. We are also a little concerned by his lack of a run at Cheltenham.
Garde La Victoire is probably the big danger to Outlander, He is 3 from 3 over fences and has won 3 of his 5 starts here, including the Greatwood Hurdle in his earlier days. He has yet to be face anything of Outlander’s class and may just fall short. Of the rest, Three Musketeers needs to put a poor run here behind him but, if he does, looks to be the most lively outsider.
Back Outlander (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 6.00 Skybet (1/4 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
2.10pm: Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
This might be a 24 runner handicap that, in theory, might look impossible to solve but it represents our 2nd bet. In these types of races, we like to find something that appears to have been laid out for a race and is running off an exploitable handicap mark. That looks to be Our Kaempfer in a nutshell.
Noel Fehily takes the ride on the Charlie Longsdon trained horse, who comes here fresh after 117 days off the track. He’s a genuine good ground horse, which he’ll get here, and gets on well with the jockey who has been on top for all 3 career wins. A hold up type who will relish the trip, he needs to come off a strong pace and that looks guaranteed. His best piece of hurdle form now looks like a 3rd placed finish to World Hurdle favourite Thistlecrack. He’s been lightly raced this season, finishing 4th of 17 at Chepstow where the trip was on the short side, before a 2nd of 7 to Broxbourne where the small field and steady pace didn’t help. He ran last time in the Fixed Brush at Haydock, a race that has provided 3 of the last 7 winners of this, and was brought down when travelling within himself. He looks well treated off a mark of 139 today and we anticipate a massive run from a horse that has gone well here before.
JP McManus is responsible for the other 3 at the head of the market and that puts me off instantly, not being able to nail his colours to any one of them. If In Doubt and Cup Final both come here off the back of a win and, whilst that’s no bad thing, it always brings into question how well handicapped the horse is. It is interesting therefore that Barry Geraghty takes the rides on the one that failed to get his nose in front last time, Leave At Dawn. That said, he’s still been hit with a 5lb hike in the weights despite only finishing 5th of 21 in a qualifier most recently.
You could make cases for several of these but it’s felt that Our Kaempfer has everything in place for a big run and, with most bookmakers paying 5 places, he looks worthy of our investment.
PLACED – Back Our Kaempfer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Boylesports (¼ odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
2.50pm: Ryanair Chase
This is all about Vautour. He’s been rerouted from the Gold Cup off the back of some disappointing homework but, realistically, he’s the class horse and should win with something in hand. It is hard to know the true wellbeing of Ruby’s mount and it’s therefore difficult to recommend a bet with any confidence.
If you want to get involved, try the ‘without Vautour’ market and have a closer look at Taquin Du Seuil and Josses Hill.
3.30pm: World Hurdle
See separate preview where Whisper and Martello Tower carry our hopes.
4.10pm: Brown Advisory Plate
A 24 runner chase that we’ll be leaving well alone. It looks to be a pinstickers race although Fingal Bay looks well handicapped on the best of his form. 10/1 looks too short in such a field and therefore we’ll watch from afar.
4.50pm: Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle
There are lots of unexposed, improving types in this race and several could run a big race at a price. However, this seems to be all about Limini, bidding to make it a Willie Mullins mares treble this week following the victories of Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag. 8/11 is no price in our eyes but we cannot oppose her so it’s another race we are happy to sit out.
5.30pm: Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Another 20+ runner handicap to round off a really difficult day’s racing and this one is made all the more difficult in that it’s confined to amateur riders. Jamie Codd is the standing dish amongst the jockeys here, winning the race 3 times in 7 years. He’s on 6/1 shot Cause Of Causes today and he should go really well here but the preference is for Doctor Harper who will be suited by the big step up in trip. He has yet to race in a handicap chase and that’s definitely a trends negative.
If we had to play, these 2 would be at the top of the shortlist but neither represent value as the 2 market leaders so we’ll keep our powder dry, saving it for Gold Cup Friday.
