The PGA Tour returns to Texas this week for the popular CJ Cup Byron Nelson tournament, one which tends to throw up plenty of good golf and decent champions as we head closer to the second major of the campaign in a fortnight.
Taylor Pendrith is the latest decent winner of this competition and he will attempt to defend a PGA Tour for the first time in his career this week. A pretty good field will be out to oppose him and look to win the tournament themselves though.
Recent Winners
2024 – Taylor Pendrith
2023 – Jason Day
2022 – K-H Lee
2021 – K-H Lee
2019 – Sung Kang
2018 – Aaron Wise
2017 – Billy Horschel
2016 – Sergio Garcia
2015 – Steven Bowditch
2014 – Brendon Todd
The Course
TPC Craig Ranch is the venue for this tournament for the fourth time. The course itself is a par 72 which now measures 7,569 yards after a couple of new tees have been put in place. One thing to always bear in mind whenever a tournament is in Texas is the winds that often blow. For that reason the greens will run quite slow this week so that the impact of the wind on the surfaces is marginalised. Rain is expected to blow through over the entire week too so conditions could get tricky.
Generally in Texas the premium is on hitting the greens. The run off areas and trouble around the greens can make scrambling quite difficult but inevitably players will be required to scramble at times so good iron players should come to the fore. Strokes gained on approach has been a big thing in the four years so far and it is expected to be low scoring once again here so it makes sense to have those who can get the ball to the hole on side as well. Don’t substitute that for length though.
The Field
Whenever a tournament is in Texas we usually have the world number one Scottie Scheffler in the field and that is the case once again this week. He would have been here anyway as he supports all of the events in his home state but he probably wants to win and build some confidence ahead of the USPGA Championship in a couple of weeks. Scheffler is joined in the field by the defending champion Taylor Pendrith, who is the only former winner on this track who is teeing it up this week.
Along with Scheffler, the home charge will be led by the likes of Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns and Jake Knapp while a very strong and deep international challenge will support Pendrith. They include his Presidents Cup teammates Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim and Tom Kim as well as Byeong-Hun An, Cam Davis, Mackenzie Hughes and Alejandro Tosti. The European contingent includes Stephan Jaeger, Rasmus Hojgaard, Nicolai Hojgaard, Matt Wallace and Seamus Power among others.
Market Leaders
Whenever Scottie Scheffler tees it up in a tournament he is a favourite to win it and this week you won’t find any bigger than 14/5 about him lifting the title before a ball is hit. He is clearly the best player in this field and by a distance but he hasn’t fired on all cylinders at any stage this season. He is getting better each time he comes here though and the field probably isn’t as deep as it could have been so he should improve on a best effort of T5 last year but he hasn’t shown enough form for me to get involved at less than 3/1. If he wins at this price then fair enough.
Jordan Spieth is 18/1 on the best prices to win the tournament. He is always to be respected on Texas as that is his home state and he has never finished outside the top 20 around here. The big question mark is clearly over his form but he does tend to go much better in front of a home crowd. He certainly has the short game to get the job done here but length isn’t his forte and you wonder if he will be inconvenienced as a result of that.
Sungjae Im comes third in the market at 25/1. This will be the first time that he has played this course competitively so it will be interesting to see if he challenges on debut or whether those with course knowledge have the edge on him. Im was quietly fifth at The Masters and T11 at The Heritage so he has some good recent form which will do him no harm. I just wonder whether he is long enough off the tee and that is where I’m doubtful of him.
The only other player shorter than 30/1 this week is Byeong-Hun An. The Korean can be backed at 28/1 and when you consider that he has a T14 and a T4 here there is certainly no worries with the track and the additional length shouldn’t be a problem to him either. He can be streaky with the putter so we will need faith in the fact that he will respond to these greens once again but if he does there is every chance he will be in contention.
Main Bet
I only like one main bet this week and it comes in one half of the team who came second at the Zurich Classic last week in Rasmus Hojgaard. I believe he has all the tools to go well on the PGA Tour and while his form this season hasn’t been what he would have wanted, there has been bits and pieces of scoring which suggest he can go well in a field not stacked with star talents. He should come in confident after finished second with his brother last week and prior to that he was T32 at The Masters where we went round in 67 in the second round. He is used to winning on wide open tracks on the DP World Tour and if he can start well this week I see no reason why he can’t get himself right into contention on a track that should suit.
Outsiders
I’ll go with four outsiders this week as it is the only tournament taking place. The first of those is Alejandro Tosti, the Argentine who has found some real form recently. He has gone T5-T12-T2 in his last three solo starts so he is a man in form. A lot of that form comes off the fact that he is fifth in driving distance this season on the PGA Tour and on a course which has got another 150 yards longer and it was long anyway, that feels like a crucial thing. If he can get the putter working this week he is going to be trouble on Sunday once again.
Sami Valimaki feels like another player who should go well this week. He is in the top 15 on the PGA Tour with the putter in terms of strokes gained this season and at 70/1 he is a more than acceptable price. The Finn has started his PGA Tour campaign pretty well and he has won on the DP World Tour a couple of times in recent months so he is a player who knows how to get the job done at a level not too dissimilar to what he’ll face this week. He can score low and the breeze isn’t going to worry him so Valimaki looks like a leading light from those at an outsider price.
Cam Davis is another one who is plenty long enough off the tee and he is also in the outsider prices this week. What I like about the Australian going into this one is he was the eighth best in the field with the putter in terms of strokes gained at The Heritage a couple of weeks ago and that was a signature event so if he can do the business with the short stick in that tournament he certainly can here too and if he putts well then he has the long game length and ability to put himself right in the mix once again here.
Chris Gotterup is the other player to catch my fancy this week. He is another who doesn’t lack for length and I really do think that is a big thing now that the course has been extended. It was a bit of a beast at the best of times anyway and if there is any rain in the storms that are usually around this part of the world at this time of year to soften the course up then that would play into the hands of Gotterup. Gotterup has had three top 20 finishes in his last six solo starts so he certainly isn’t in terrible form and in this company I’ll pay to see what he can deliver this week.
Tips
Back R.Hojgaard to win CJ Cup Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Valimaki to win CJ Cup Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Davis to win CJ Cup Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Gotterup to win CJ Cup Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back A.Tosti to win CJ Cup Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
