Arguably the biggest match of the 2019 Cricket World Cup so far takes place on Tuesday when old enemies England and Australia do battle at Lord’s in a match that is massive for the hosts but fairly big for the Australians.
England’s loss to Sri Lanka last week has left them nursing a weak position in fourth spot in the table and they probably need two wins from their final three matches to make it through to the semi-finals. Australia could already have enough points but a win here would secure it and go some way to eliminating England from the competition.
One blip is acceptable in this tournament, two becomes a problem and that is exactly what England now face. They might just be able to afford another slip up in the group stage as they have encountered any of the rain that was doing the rounds earlier in the tournament, but if it comes here there would be insane pressure on them to beat India and New Zealand in their last two outings.
In both matches that they have lost, ironically it has been England’s batsmen that have let them down. They will be hoping to put in a much better performance here and to be fair they are going to need to given the quality of bowling attack they are up against here. It is one crumb of comfort that their bowling department are looking good but on what looked like a flat Lord’s track in the opening game here they will need to be at their best too.
They were my pick before the tournament started and they remain by idea of the winner. Australia haven’t been fantastic in this event yet but they are visibly getting better with every performance they put in. Their aim will be to peak in a couple of matches time but given that this game carries the magnitude that it does against this opposition I don’t’ think many would be surprised if they deliver a 100% display here.
Earlier in the tournament Australia were guilty of not finishing innings off with the bat and that was letting them down. Their change bowlers weren’t delivering the goods either but they have warmed into the event and are now giving Finch some control and in turn he is able to rely on them more. You get the feeling there is a really top performance in Australia soon and if it comes here it could have massive implications on this tournament.
England captain Eoin Morgan has confirmed that Jason Roy will not be fit for this match which means that James Vince is set to get another chance to impress. Liam Plunkett could be recalled if England want to freshen up the bowling.
Australia are weighing up the option of playing Nathan Lyon in this match with Adam Zampa most likely to make way. Two of England’s key batsmen are left-handers and Lyon would go against that. Marcus Stoinis returned against Bangladesh last time out and is expected to play here too.
I’ll go with three bets here. The first of those is on over 62.5 boundaries. We saw 59 boundaries here on Sunday when Pakistan played South Africa and with two better batting line ups on show here I’m expecting to get the four extra boundaries required to cover this line. I expect to see the batsmen getting stuck in on this Lord’s track and both these sides bat deep which helps. When watching the match on Sunday we could see the pitch that was going to be used for this game and there is a shorter boundary down to the Tavern side. That should see more boundaries than usual so I’m expecting over 62.5 boundaries to land here
Lord’s is the home ground of Eoin Morgan and I expect him to g pretty well in this match and as such his 30.5 runs line looks on the low side to me. It was only a week ago that he was smoking Afghanistan all round Manchester and while he couldn’t replicate that against Sri Lanka I think the short boundary here and his knowledge of the ground will get him up to 31 in this match. Morgan has 13 ODI 50s against Australia as well as three centuries and he has passed 31 on a further eight occasions and made 30 twice. He’s been in good form for much of the summer and so I like the over here.
I will also have a bash on Jos Buttler to be the top England batsman in this match. He started the tournament off very encouragingly and while he has gone a shade quiet in recent times I’m sure there is nothing like a battle with the Australians to wake him out of his slump. He has two centuries, a 90 and another half century in his last eight ODI innings against Australia and they have all been in the last 18 months. Whenever there is a short boundary we know he can find it with his 360 degrees hitting quality. At 13/2 there’s a bit of juice in an insane middle order knock top scoring here.
Back Over 62.5 boundaries for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
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Back E.Morgan – Over 30.5 runs for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with BetVictor
Back J.Buttler Top England Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 with Betfred
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