It isn’t quite do or die time for England in their Cricket World Cup campaign on Wednesday but if they don’t beat New Zealand in their final game of the first stage up at the Riverside in Durham then they will need Bangladesh to beat Pakistan on Friday to keep them in the competition.
The stakes are high for Eoin Morgan and his men here but the same can be said for New Zealand, who will be vulnerable to a big Pakistan win which would dump them out of the tournament should the Kiwis lose here.
AllSportsBetting Podcast
Kev and Steve are back to discuss all things England and New Zealand and where they stand in the tournament. The two guys have six bets for the contest and go through them all in good detail. Click the play button on the video below to listen.
England
If ever you needed confirmation that Jason Roy is massive to this England side you got it on Sunday as his presence alone made England look a lot more authoritative with the bat and when England bat well and with freedom, by and large they win 50 over cricket matches. That was the case against India which kept themselves in control of their own destiny. They will be looking for a repeat of that display here and it should be enough to avoid any group stage heartache.
What was really impressive for England against India, as it has been throughout the tournament really, was their bowling attack. There were times when India were threatening to get on top in their run chase but to the credit of the England bowlers they stood up and were counted at the pressure moments. The signs are they will need to work just as hard here because there doesn’t look to be much in the Riverside pitches for the bowlers.
New Zealand
After starting out like a house on fire in this tournament, New Zealand are limping home and desperately need the finishing line in this group stage. Having toyed with defeats to South Africa and West Indies but somehow keeping their unbeaten record intact, they have now lost successive games to Pakistan and to Australia, and lost them quite tamely it has to be said. Even if they make the semi-finals they won’t want to go into them off the back of three straight losses.
New Zealand’s batting just hasn’t fired at all in this tournament. If it wasn’t for their captain Kane Williamson they would surely be down and out by now. If ever there was a time for the rest of their line up to stand up and deliver the goods it is now. That isn’t just to make it into the semi-finals but so that they have some form in their batting when they get into them, should they make it through.
Team News
England are expected to stay with the same combination which beat India on Sunday. Jason Roy is expected to be fit despite not fielding in that match while Liam Plunkett knows all about this ground and should get the nod over Moeen Ali.
New Zealand changed their set up against Australia, bringing in Ish Sodhi but nothing has turned at all at the Riverside thus far so the Kiwis could easily call for Matt Henry or Tim Southee to replace him. Henry Nicholls is expected to stay in for Colin Munro.
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Betting
I think England will win this match. I think they are over their little slump for the time being and I just don’t see this New Zealand batting line up delivering the goods well enough to trouble England. A run chase might get a little nervy for England is it is anything bordering on a daunting score but even then in a do or die situation I would expect someone to lead England over the line. I can’t believe they’ll be chasing anything near 300. You won’t get rich backing England to win this match though but if you add in them to hit the most sixes, which looks a given with the lack of six hitters in this New Zealand side, and you suddenly have a 5/6 shot which looks appealing. New Zealand have only hit 20 sixes in seven matches and this is a huge ground. England should have them covered both in the match and the sixes.
One England batsman who I expect to go well is Jonny Bairstow. He has a wonderful record against New Zealand in this format of the game with an average of 77 from six matches with scores of 83*, 37, 138 and 104 in that time. He has a decent enough record on this track too with his two ODIs at Durham yielding scores of 83* against New Zealand and then 79 against Australia last summer. He comes into this match off the back of a ton against India and should be hitting the ball nicely. He is so much better when Jason Roy is alongside him so I’ve got to think he has his 36.5 runs line covered.
I’m onto the player performance bets for my final main bet. That is the one belonging to Kane Williamson which looks low at 46.5. I was slightly torn between taking his run line which is 40.5 or this but I’ve figured if he gets to 41 runs he’ll be in and the chances are he’ll make it to 47. He might not need to though because he fields close in around the bat so could easily snatch a grab or two and he has started bowling in the latter part of this tournament so could send a few overs of his right arm filth down. Any scoring in the field or with the ball dramatically lessens the runs he would need so the performance is the right bet. He averages 57.87 against England so we only need an average innings for him to fly past this. Six of his 37 ODI wickets have come against England too. Williamson has seven 50s against England and two tons in just 18 matches so the chances are he covers this with the bat but we’ve got back up in case he doesn’t.
I’ll also take a play on Liam Plunkett to be the top England bowler on what used to be his home ground. We’ve seen good bounce in this Durham surface so far and he’ll be able to extract that in the middle overs especially with little fear of going the distance on these huge boundaries. He comes into this match off the back of 3/55 against India and with this Kiwi middle order having offered little in the tournament apart from the odd innings, Plunkett could be nicely positioned to fill his boots again.
Tips
WON – Back England to win and hit the most sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
WON – Back J.Bairstow – Over 36.5 runs for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
Back them here:
WON – Back K.Williamson’s Performance – Over 46.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with 888sport
Back him here:
Back L.Plunkett Top England Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with William Hill
Back him here:
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