One of the biggest events on the European Tour takes place this week when many of Europe’s elite head to Ireland for the latest staging of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open.
For the second year in a row Rory McIlroy and his foundation host the tournament and Europe’s number one has certainly brought an excellent field along with him for what should be an excellent week of golf.
Recent champions
2015 – Soren Kjeldsen
2014 – Mikko Ilonen
2013 – Paul Casey
2012 – Jamie Donaldson
2011 – Simon Dyson
2010 – Ross Fisher
2009 – Shane Lowry
2008 – Richard Finch
2007 – Padraig Harrington
2006 – Thomas Bjorn
The Course
When Soren Kjeldsen won last year it was on a links course in the most extreme weather conditions I’ve seen golf played in for quite some time. This year the tournament has moved to the iconic K Club in County Kildare. This course is famous for hosting Europe’s victorious 2006 Ryder Cup win. The course was also a regular host of the European Open a decade or so ago.
Winners around here have all hit plenty of greens in regulation and that statistic combined with the knowledge that water is in play on 15 of the holes around here highlights the need for total control of the golf ball at all times.
There are quotes doing the rounds where one of the green keepers suggest that the rough is quite shallow this week so hitting the fairways doesn’t carry the same significance it can do here but you need to keep it in play as much as you can.
The weather is set to be awkward this week so players who can deal with the wind and the rain should probably get preference over those who don’t.
The field
This is one of the best fields of the year so far. Rory McIlroy heads it while the current Masters champion and Race to Dubai leader Danny Willett also tees it up here. Former champion Shane Lowry is in the field as is one of Europe’s stalwarts back in 2006 Lee Westwood.
There are major champions in the field in the form of Graeme McDowell, Martin Kaymer and Darren Clarke among others while some of the best up and coming players in Europe are also here. With big Ryder Cup points up for grabs this week this is a huge tournament for many players for many reasons.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy starts the week as the 4/1 favourite but he has missed the last two cuts in this event which can’t be described as ideal. I don’t think Rory is firing on all cylinders anyway at the minute so I wouldn’t be keen on his chances but the fact he is hosting the tournament this week and has all the other side things that hosting brings he is easily passed over.
Danny Willett is the second favourite this week at a general 18/1 and if he brings the game he had at Augusta with him this week he would be a serious contender but plenty has changed for Willett in the last month and it might take him a few weeks to come to terms with that. We saw evidence of that at Sawgrass last week. That puts me off him.
Shane Lowry is the third favourite this week around the 20/1 mark and it is 30/1 bar those three men. Russell Knox is a 30/1 shot with Graeme McDowell 33/1. Joost Luiten and Lee Westwood are both 35/1 on the best prices and it is 40/1 bar those named.
Main bets
I took Shane Lowry in America a couple of weeks ago to no avail but I’m tempted in on him again this week particularly after an encouraging effort at TPC Sawgrass last week. Had he not been found out on the Saturday when the greens were like glass he may well have been Jason Day’s nearest challenger in that tournament.
I’m not going to hold that against him though because only half a dozen players shot under par that day and in truth Lowry didn’t do a whole lot wrong he just had absolutely no luck early in that round but the other three rounds gave me great encouragement that the big Irishman is coming back into form.
You have to hit the ball well around here and Lowry does just that and you need a decent short game in a week where the conditions aren’t going to be easy and he certainly has that. He mentioned in an interview last week that McDowell had given him a putting tip and it appeared to work. If it continues working this week Lowry is a huge runner to win his home open for a second time.
The shortlist for the rest of the main bets was quite large. Joost Luiten, Martin Kaymer and Lee Westwood were all high up on my shortlist and suit the profile of a player I’m looking for this week but at the prices I’ve gone with two others.
I can never resist a punt on Graeme McDowell and this week is no different. The former US Open champion should be ideally suited to this course. He’s also proud of his roots which should further inspire him this week which is no bad thing.
McDowell is extremely straight from tee to green and he has been putting much better in America these days which is encouraging. Even when he was going through a rough trot he always gave a good account of himself at this level. Now that he is back putting well and playing well he should be a strong contender.
We know if the weather gets bad McDowell can cope more than most so every box is ticked this week and I expect a strong showing and potentially a first Irish Open title for Gmac.
One man who has enjoyed this course in the past is Peter Hanson and as luck would have it the big Swede looks to be coming back into nick at just the right time for this week.
It is no surprise that Hanson goes well around here. He is a straight driver of the ball who finds a lot of greens, He is safely inside the top 20 for Greens in Regulation on the European Tour this year which bodes well and by and large he’s a decent putter and a return to a course he’s gone well on should only enhance his putting.
This is a top field of that there is no doubt but at his best Hanson is a Ryder Cup player and around here he can mix it with the best of them.
Outsiders
Soren Kjeldsen was a three figure price when he won this tournament 12 months ago so it might just be worth throwing a few coins at a couple of outrageous prices in the hope they sneak into contention on Sunday.
The first player that fills the criteria this week is the Frenchman, Benjamin Hebert. Hebert is a GIR machine. He is fifth on the European Tour for greens hit and if his irons are as sharp as usual this week he is going to give himself plenty of looks for birdies.
I don’t see these greens playing as tough as they have done in the bigger years gone by purely because of the weather so if Hebert can deal with the winds then he’s entitled to be right in the mix deep into Sunday.
My final pick is a real leap of faith and a shot in the dark but if Matteo Manassero’s recent up trend isn’t a fluke and is the sign of things to come then the Italian could well deliver a big performance this week.
For one reason or another his game has completely fallen apart in recent seasons as he has strived for length that he just doesn’t have but he appears to have gone back to basics and the early signs in Morocco and previously to that in Shenzhen are that it is working.
At his very best Manassero is a BMW PGA Championship winner and his GIR stats are encouraging this year. He might need a few more runs before getting into contention again but if he is going to contend it will be on a track like this so at 300/1 he’s worthy of a punt.
Dubai Duty Free Irish Open Tips
Back S.Lowry to win DDF Irish Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back G.McDowell to win DDF Irish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake 31.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Hanson to win DDF Irish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here – PADDY POWER ARE PAYING 7 PLACES FOR THE EVENT:
Back B.Hebert to win DDF Irish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Manassero to win DDF Irish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
