England will look to take their ODI series with Australia to a deciding match on Friday when the two sides meet for the penultimate time this summer in the 4th ODI at Headingley.
England’s backs were against the wall heading into the third match at Old Trafford on Tuesday night but like good sides do they came out fighting and kept the series alive with a thumping win. They need to win here though else Australia will take the glory.
England still haven’t shown us the aggressive, expansive, positive brand of cricket they played earlier in the summer. Some of that is down to a couple of players having lost their form and some of it is down to the fact that they’re playing an infinitely better side but they will be buoyed by their display at Manchester.
Australia were poor in that match. Poor in the field and very poor with the bat and they’ll certainly be hoping that was a one off else this series could get very tight. In truth they looked a tired and jaded side at Old Trafford and with the plane home looming large motivation could be an issue.
England will be forced into at least one change for this match as Chris Woakes has been ruled out of the remainder of the series with an injury. David Willey or Reece Topley could well get their chance to impress having sat on the sidelines so far. A rejig to the batting order can’t be ruled out.
Australia might need to think about resting Mitchell Starc. He has played in every match against England this summer and it looked to have taken its toll at Old Trafford. They have John Hastings ready and waiting to come into the side. They played two spinners at Old Trafford but there’s no need for that here.
I think these conditions will suit England and the early morning start will certainly do them no harm either with the swing bowlers they have at their disposal so I’m happy to take the odds against on Eoin Morgan’s men. They won the previous match without being right at their best but they bowled well and that’s never a bad thing.
The Australians weren’t at their best in the field and they got out to a few silly shots which is a sign of the summer catching up with them so I like England to level the series here.
Another bet I like here is over 8.5 sixes. It is set to be a nice day in Leeds as it has been in the run up to the match so I’m expecting a good wicket which will play well and the boundaries here are much more accessible than they used to be.
We saw that last year when England and India played out an ODI which contained 13 sixes and I expect this one to be similar. England will have more confidence about them going into this match which should in turn provide more sixes while Australia are not short of hitters and Maxwell and Finch in particular might look to entertain what they might call their home crowd having played for Yorkshire all summer.
With a good wicket and plenty of big hitters on show we should be seeing at least nine sixes in this match and I would wager a few more than that as well.
Looking at the player markets there are a couple that stand out for Australia. I’ll begin with their top bowler where Pat Cummins looks a big price to me at 4/1. There are a few reasons why Cummins looks a big price. Firstly he is yet to lose in the series with a couple of dead heat and a win in the three matches.
Another reason why he is a big price is the pace he has been working up through the series. We’ve seen him scone Morgan and cause him no ends of trouble and at the death that pace can be crucial especially if the tail are in. A final reason would be that his main competitor – Mitchell Starc – looks knackered so at 4/1 Cummins looks a standout to be the top wicket taker for the tourists.
Looking at their batting and it might be worth taking a punt on Matthew Wade to top score at 18/1. He’s already done it once in this series and is fresher than a number of his colleagues having only arrived for the limited overs leg of the trip. He might think he has a point to prove to seal his spot too so that price looks big on a guy who showed at Southampton that he can definitely bat.
Back England to win 4th ODI for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with Boylesports
Back Over 8.5 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Coral
Back P.Cummins Top Australia Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with Stan James
Back M.Wade Top Australia Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with Paddy Power
Blog cricket YTD: +14.59pts
