The fifth and final Ashes Test begins at The Oval on Thursday and for once it does so with the series not on the line but with the possibility of England still making their own piece of history.
England took a 3-1 lead in the five match series with an emphatic complete demolition of Australia in Nottingham two weeks ago but they have never won four matches in the same Ashes series. They have the opportunity to do that in London this week.
Australia have only pride to play for and perhaps a send off to their retiring captain Michael Clarke and opener Chris Rogers. Neither will want to leave international cricket on a defeat so they have their own momentum but it must be said the rest of their team look a beaten side on what we’ve seen in the last few weeks.
England have been completely dominant in this series and it would be about right if they win it by three matches but if they are going to do that then they will have to do it without Jimmy Anderson as he hasn’t recovered from his side strain in time. Alastair Cook has confirmed that Adil Rashid won’t feature in this match.
Australia coach Darren Lehmann has confessed that Australia will rest Josh Hazlewood for this match. He hasn’t confirmed his replacement. Pat Cummins is expected to replace the young seamer but Fawad Ahmed could play if Australia want two spinners. Mitchell Marsh looks set to replace someone in the batting line up having missed out at Trent Bridge.
The Oval is the venue for this final match of the series. This will be the 98th time the London venue has held a Test match and it is now the traditional host of the final match of the summer in the longer format of the game.
The wicket here is always good for batting early on in the match but at this time in the season it will take turn as the match wears on. Unlike the last two wickets I’m not sure this one will seam around much which could give Australia some comfort.
The respective records here don’t make the best reading for Australia. They’ve played here 36 times and have won just six of those matches while England have a 40-20 winning record on this ground.
There will be a massive fallout from this series as there so often is but England have the chance to really stamp their authority on things in this match and I think they will take it. I don’t think they’ll win the match inside two or three days like they have the last two but I do think they will win it.
Whichever way you look at it Australia have plenty of problems. Their captain hasn’t performed once in the series and now he leads the man who is going to succeed him in a weird situation. Furthermore their bowling attack just hasn’t performed in this series and that is a bigger issue.
England have no such problems. Their bowling attack has outbowled themselves in this series so far and while their batting hasn’t been fantastic it hasn’t needed to be and I suspect when it does need to be there is a little more to come.
England’s respective record on this ground compared to Australia and the momentum they have leads me to believe they will wrap up the series in style. Australia have just struggled against a Northamptonshire second team and they just look like a side ready to board the plane home and regroup. England are a good price to send them packing with another defeat.
I’m a big person on capitalising on a player’s form be it good or bad and I’m going to aim to do that here. Joe Root is in exceptional form at the minute. He is now the best ranked batsman in the world in Test cricket and looks to be seeing it like a football. His first innings scores in this series are 134, 1, 63 and 130 so the 6/4 on Root making 50 in his first dig here looks too good to ignore particularly given this is likely to be the best batting track of the summer.
It might be the best track of the summer but that doesn’t mean Australia’s mindset is strong enough to take advantage of it and I see some value in their lower order. Mitchell Johnson has already top scored twice in this series and at 40/1 he’s worth a speculative punt to do it a third time in case those above him bomb out as they have in the last two matches.
A final bet I like is Moeen Ali’s performance which is quite lowly set at 100. It isn’t without its risks in that England’s seamers could run through the Aussie line up and Ali won’t get much bowling opportunity but at some point I’m sure he’ll get some overs and a couple of wickets and a couple of average innings gets this covered.
A good innings with either does the job too and that line looks a bit low particularly when you think his lowest first innings score in the series is 38. This wicket should suit him both with the bat and the ball and I’m expecting a stronger show from England’s spinner here.
Back England to win 5th Test for a 4/10 stake at 2.38 with Skybet
Back J.Root to make 50 in first innings for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with William Hill
Back M.Ali’s Performance – 100pts or more for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back M.Johnson Top Australia 1st inns batsman for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Stan James
