England and Pakistan couldn’t be separated over four Test matches over the last six weeks so it will be interesting to see who comes out on top in the five match ODI series which begins in Southampton on Wednesday.
England are much improved in this format of the game and this is now arguably their strongest format currently. Pakistan have recently moved to number one in the Test rankings but in this format of the game they appear to lack an identity and a formula, something they need to change quick if they are to avoid having to qualify for the 2019 World Cup.
England
The last World Cup was a watershed moment for England and since then they have developed their identity and brand of cricket and while it doesn’t always lead to success it is positive, attractive and gets the public of side and maintains pressure on the opposition which is most important.
Their batting very much remains their strength and while their weakness is still with the ball against the better sides they are improving all the time in that area. The depth of talent England now has is incredible. You could pick a squad of those waiting to get into the ODI team and it would challenge the actual side.
Pakistan
A Misbah led Pakistan side were determined, classy and packed with attacking cricket but this team is no longer led by Misbah and Azhar Ali hasn’t really stamped his authority on it. They did have a good win over Ireland in the lead up to this series but without meaning ay disrespect this is a totally different ball game.
One thing Pakistan will always carry is a bowling attack capable of bowling any side out but whether their batting can match up to that remains to be seen. On paper you would think a side that can leave out the likes of Asad Shafiq, Umar Akmal and Ahmed Shehzad would be a very strong batting line up but a collapse is never far away.
Team News
England have an embarrassment of riches at their disposal here. Ben Stokes looks set to slot back in albeit as a batsman only which means Jonny Bairstow may have to sit out. Liam Dawson is also in contention while with the ball it looks like two of three from Chris Woakes, Mark Wood and Chris Jordan.
Pakistan rested Wahab Riaz and Yasir Shah for the match in Ireland but it would be highly unlikely that they sit this one out. Sharjeel Khan’s century in that match confirms he’ll open the batting with Azhar Ali and Mohammad Hafeez the other two in the top three.
Ageas Bowl
This will be the 20th match at the Southampton venue and recently it has been the best batting wicket in the country in limited overs cricket. England have played 13 of the previous 19 matches here with six wins and seven defeats while Pakistan have a win and two losses from their three matches.
Scores here are often on the larger side purely because the wicket is so good but the boundaries are big so the sixes totals aren’t always high and even in 20 over cricket domestically on this ground this season we haven’t seen huge sixes totals and that is with the boundaries in. In 50 over cricket domestically there have been four scores over 280 in four matches.
Betting
There are three bets I like going into this match although I’m going to leave the match outcome alone. I think England will win purely because you have to put up significant totals here and I’m not convinced Pakistan will but there is that doubt about Pakistan and their enigmatic nature that makes me swerve it in the hunt for better opportunities.
One such opportunity comes in the sixes line where eight just looks too high to me. Pakistan aren’t what you would call a natural six hitting side like they were in previous times when the likes of Afridi, Akmal and Abdur Razzaq were swinging to within an inch of their lives and even if they were they would do well to hit this England attack very far.
On the flip side of that Pakistan have an attack that don’t go for many sixes and even though England bat deep with this new philosophy of theirs this isn’t a ground that is easy to hit sixes on as evidenced by the fact there has never been more than eight sixes in an ODI here that hasn’t been reduced for rain.
I mentioned in the series preview how well Mark Wood is bowling right now and I’m going to back that up by putting some money where my mouth is. The over he sent down to Joe Root on T20 finals day on Saturday was as good an over as you’ll see and he is sure to work this Pakistan top order over. He’s odds against to take two or more wickets and I like that especially given his record with the white ball since he returned from injury.
The other bet I like is on the England skipper Eoin Morgan to top score. I’ve mentioned in the past how he loves this ground and the statistics show us that. He averages 65.85 in ODIs here as opposed to his career average of 36.67 and two of his eight centuries have come on this ground. He also has a 71 and a 43 here.
His lowest score on the ground is 21 so every time he has batted here he has got a start and with Alex Hales potentially low on confidence at the top of the order and question marks whether Roy can get after this attack it could come down to the skipper to lead the way again.
Tips
VOID – Back Under 8 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
Back it here:
Back M.Wood – Over 1.5 wickets for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Ladbrokes
Back it here:
Back E.Morgan Top England Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 with Titanbet
Back him here:
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