England and South Africa get together again this week for the third Test of four and after the tourists’ huge win at Trent Bridge they do so with the series beautifully poised at 1-1 with two matches remaining.
This third Test takes place at The Oval and both sides head into it knowing whoever wins the match will be unable to lose the series so it is a huge match for many reasons.
England
Whenever South Africa come over to tour this country England seem to have weaknesses exposed and demons take over and panic soon sets in and that has happened here. In isolation they should be able to put Trent Bridge down to a bad performance but with six losses in eight Test matches old wounds are wide open.
England are set to make changes to their batting line up and their bowling attack. Both are enforced but it would be interesting to see what they would have done had those moves not been forced on them. This is a side crying out for a top order to deliver. In truth it is going back probably two years since it last did.
South Africa
Very rarely do you see immediate turnarounds to such an extent as the one that South Africa produced between the first and second Tests. Much of it was put down to the return of Faf du Plessis and while that clearly had an impact it would be wrong to suggest that was the only factor involved.
South Africa should head into this match full of confidence for a couple of reasons. Not only have they just thrashed England out of sight but they did so without one of their best bowlers who returns for this game. South Africa battered England the last time they played at The Oval too so there is much for the Proteas to be positive about.
Team News
England have confirmed that there will be debuts for Tom Westley and Toby Roland-Jones. They will replace the injured Gary Ballance and Mark Wood. Their one remaining decision is whether to stick with Liam Dawson or give Dawid Malan a debut.
With JP Duminy having been released from the South Africa squad for the rest of the tour the only change we should expect from them is Kagiso Rabada coming back into the side in place of Duanne Olivier.
The Oval
This is something of a landmark week for the London venue as it is the 100th time they will host Test cricket. England have played in each of the previous 99 here with 40 wins, 37 draws and 22 defeats. South Africa have just one win in 14 attempts here but it was in their last match five years ago.
The wicket here is always good for batting and batsmen get full value for their shots with the fast outfield but the longer the match goes on the spinners really come into play which ensures few matches are drawn.
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Betting
I like four bets this week and they are all with a South African theme. I’m surprised South Africa are odds against to lead after the first innings. England rely far too much on three batsmen whereas many more South Africans contribute to the cause. After much was made of their lack of fight in the previous game I wouldn’t be surprised to see England tighten up and slow right up but that brings its own pressures. England’s bowling attack has a light look to it if Roland-Jones doesn’t hit the ground running so all things being equal South Africa are a big price to lead after the first innings.
Hashim Amla has a very low performance line in this match at 96.5. He has covered it both times he has played on this ground including the last time with a mammoth 311 not out. He averages 93 in all formats on this ground so he might only need to bat once with a catch to cover this total but over the course of two innings I expect him to comfortably cover this line.
I’ve taken Temba Bavuma to top score in both first innings so far. He did in the first match and failed in the second match but at 10/1 the carrot has been dangled again and I’m willing to take a bite once again. His technique is sound and if England do get through the top order he can bail the tourists out.
Keshav Maharaj should be a leading player for South Africa in this match. In fairness he has been important in both matches so far but the conditions here should suit him even more. The Oval has been known to spin quite early in recent years and with quite a bit of cricket on this ground already this summer I wouldn’t be surprised if this one turns early. At 9/2 the spinner is a big price for the most South African first innings wickets.
Tips
Back South Africa 1st Inns Lead for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with Skybet
Back them here:
Back H.Amla’s Performance – Over 96.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
WON – Back T.Bavuma Top South Africa 1st Inns Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back K.Maharaj Top South Africa 1st Inns Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 5.50 with Betfred
Back him here:
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