The first Euro 2020 group finishes on Sunday when the concluding matches in Group A take place with the bigger match of the two coming in Rome where Italy look to win the group when they host a Wales side who can deny them that achievement if they pull off an unlikely win.
Barring something quite remarkable Wales are already through to the knockout stages but there is the chance to win the group and make their path in the latter stages a little easier. Italy are warming to the position of title contenders and have another chance to showcase their talents here.
Where to watch
This match will be shown on ITV1 in the UK. The build-up to the game begins at 3.55pm with the match having a 5pm kick off.
Italy
Nothing is won in the group stage of these tournaments but if it were then Italy would be serious title challengers because there haven’t been many sides who have looked as good, as assured and as confident as them in their two matches to date. They have brushed off the challenges of Turkey and Switzerland with the minimum of fuss and according to their manager Roberto Mancini they are only going to get better by the match, which is quite some statement.
Italy have scored six goals in the tournament so far and not really looked like conceding at any stage. They have given a couple of masterclasses of how to play the three at the back formation. The creativity, movement and coolness of their attacking players is shining as much as their defensive strength and that is making for a very tough side to beat. They haven’t really come up against a side who like to protect the ball yet so it will be interesting to see what happens when they do, but for now there can be no criticisms of this Italian side.
Wales
I think it is fair to say that Wales didn’t really pull up any trees in their opening 45 minutes of the tournament but they have been in good shape since then and go into this match off the back of an emphatic win over Turkey in a match they controlled from start to finish. In that game their truly big players made themselves noticed and when those players have their dander up Wales can be very tough to stop, as we saw in France five years ago.
The first thing which will be interesting is how Wales approach the game. I don’t expect them to go gung ho and open themselves up to this Italian side to pick them off but do they park the bus and look for a point that would guarantee second place in the table or do they try and get up the pitch and at least look to win the ball high and attempt to cause Italy problems. With four points and a positive goal difference Wales can at least attack this match with a bit of freedom.
Special Offer
Sign up for a Betfair account during Euro 2020 and get up to £100 in FREE BETS! New accounts only. Click the image below for this fantastic offer! 18+ T&Cs apply. Gamble Aware.
New customer offer. Place 5 x £10 or more bets to receive £20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange bets excluded. Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
Team News
Italy boss Roberto Mancini is expected to make a number of changes for this match with his side already through. He’ll be forced into one because Giorgio Chiellini is out injured so Francesco Acerbi is expected to come in for him. Marco Verratti is expected to return from injury while the likes of Federico Chiesa could see game time here.
Wales aren’t officially through yet but it will take something pretty amazing for them not to progress so Rob Page might choose to freshen things up and get some minutes into those yet to have them while resting the likes of Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen who were fitness concerns heading into the tournament. Kieffer Moore could step aside too as he is on a booking.
Betting
This isn’t a match I want to get stuck into because we are highly likely to see a couple of changed line-ups taking to the pitch but that opens up a bit of value in some of the player markets which I’ll try and exploit with a couple of small bets on the game. I still expect Italy to win the match but they are plenty short enough and things like win to nil and handicaps are off the agenda given the likely amount of changes.
I’ll take the 5/1 on Federico Chiesa for an anytime assist and the 14/1 on Leonardo Bonucci to score anytime. Wales have been horrendous defending set pieces in this tournament. They conceded from one in the first game against Switzerland and needed the keeper and some goal line clearances to avoid conceding from one in the second game. Italy had a goal ruled out from a set-piece against Turkey and assuming Lorenzo Insigne is rested for Chiesa to play I would expect Chiesa to be on the set-pieces so he is quite capable of pinching an assist from a dead ball but he can also set a goal up from open play. With Chiellini not fit Bonucci might be the target from the corners and if Wales do rest Kieffer Moore the centre-back might find it even easier to get his head on something. In a match I don’t fancy a lot I’ll take a chance on these two.
Tips
Back F.Chiesa anytime assist for a 1/10 stake at 6.00 with Betfair
Back L.Bonucci to score anytime for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Betfair
Back them here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2021
