Belgium have already guaranteed their passage into the last 16 of Euro 2020 and on Monday evening they will attempt to win the group and give themselves a smoother passage in the knockout stages. They take on Finland in their final match of the section in Saint Petersburg.
While Belgium are already through and need a draw to win the group, Finland will most likely need to take something out of this match if they are to follow the Red Devils into the knockout stages, which should make for an intriguing evening.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on BBC1 for those of us who are in the UK. The build-up to the contest will begin at 7.30pm with the match kicking off at 8pm.
Finland
I would imagine this would have been a position that Finland would have signed up for at the start of the tournament had you offered it to them. There is no doubting the size of the task here but at the same time any shot at qualifying this late into the group was probably the best they could have hoped for. That possibility has come about in unfortunate circumstances with their win coming in the match where Christian Eriksen had that terrible incident but they can’t do anything about that now.
The big concern for me is that Finland have looked a little out of their depth against both Denmark prior to that incident and against Russia, two lesser opponents to the one that they face here. The concern really comes up front where Teemu Pukki doesn’t look fit and they rely a lot on crosses into the box which probably isn’t going to work too much here. They have shown that they can muscle up and defend but keeping Belgium out for 90 minutes rates as one of the tougher tests in football right now.
Belgium
The Belgians have safely negotiated their way into the knockout stages courtesy of easing to victory against Russia in their opening match and then coming from behind against Denmark in the second game. They were very ordinary for the opening 45 minutes of that match but then when a couple of the big guns came off the bench we saw the Belgium that we expect to see throughout the tournament. They now need just one point to win the group and set up a clash with a third placed side.
We’ve seen the good and bad of Belgium in this tournament. In attacking areas they have a wealth of talent and already their elite players have introduced themselves to the tournament. The concerning area comes at the back where there is a lack of legs in the centre of their defence and there is a feeling that this Belgium side can be got at for teams who are able to keep the ball. That is easier said than done though. Belgium have carried the favourites tag well so far in this tournament and you sense there is more to come from them.
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Team News
Finland captain Tim Sparv missed out in the defeat to Russia because of his ongoing fitness issues but he is so pivotal to this side that he is likely to be risked in this match. Teemo Pukki will be given another chance to impact the game.
Belgium will be without Thorgan Hazard for this match as he has a knee injury. Roberto Martinez has confirmed that his trio of players who lacked game time leading into the competition – Eden Hazard, Kevin de Bruyne and Axel Witsel – will all start.
Betting
I get that Belgium don’t need to win this match but I think they will and I expect them to get ahead early and stay in that position. Usually I would wonder about the side who is already through and likely to make a bucket load of changes but when those changes involve Kevin de Bruyne and Eden Hazard coming into the side I think it is fair to say there aren’t as many concerns there as there normally would be.
There is no getting away from the fact that Belgium were poor in the first half against Denmark and I expect them to come out much more on the front foot here and just be too good for Finland. Finland were opened up plenty of times by Russia in the previous game and if Belgium are afforded the same chances it isn’t going to end pretty for the debutants. While there might be no Lukaku there is still de Bruyne, Hazard and plenty of other players to get Belgium in front before half time and then to win the game.
Tips
Back Belgium HT/Belgium FT for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Boylesports
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