The first spot in the Euro 2020 final will be filled on Tuesday evening when two of the biggest footballing nations in Europe meet in the opening semi-final at Wembley Stadium as Italy take on Spain in a repeat of the 2012 title showdown.
Spain won on that occasion but they have lived a bit of a charmed life to make it through to this semi-final. Italy have looked a much more assured unit and head into the last four clash as the favourites to compete for the title on Sunday.
Where to watch
This first semi-final will be broadcast live and in full on BBC1. The build-up to the match begins at 7.30pm with the match kicking off 30 minutes later at 8pm.
Italy
With the exception of their last 16 match, the Italians have oozed class and looked a very impressive unit in this tournament so far. They have won every match inside the 90 minutes apart from that first knockout clash with Austria and although a lot was made of the way they saw out the clock in the quarter final win over Belgium in the quarter final, they did get the job done and lived to tell the tale. They are likely to need that nous here.
I don’t think anyone will be surprised by the defensive qualities that the Italians have shown in this competition so far but what has caught the eye has been their attacking prowess. They look like a slick unit who have plenty of options going forward and are no longer a side who are wholly reliant on that defence, unlike previous sides have been. They have a very strong midfield who are creating plenty of chances for the forward players.
Spain
This has been a very strange tournament for Spain. They started off creating everything but scoring nothing and now they are scoring freely but can’t keep the ball out of their own net. To say they have ridden their luck would be an understatement, but to be fair to them they have held themselves together in the pressure moments and have made it through to this semi-final by right, although I think it is fair to say they might need more to come through here.
The one area Spain have been terrible in is chance conversion. Creating them hasn’t been a problem so far however they haven’t come up against a team as defensively astute as this Italian one is. They have faced a lot of low blocks but that isn’t the Italian way. They are not going to just sit back and let Spain attack them. That means Spain’s forwards are going to need to be a lot more clinical here particularly when you factor in how exposed and weak their defence has been.
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Team News
Italy have been rocked by the news that Leonardo Spinazzola has had his tournament ended by the injury he sustained against Belgium in the quarter final. Chelsea defender Emerson Palmieri is expected to replace him in the only change to Roberto Mancini’s side.
Spain are also expected to be without a key player as Pablo Sarabia is a major doubt for this match after he sustained a muscle injury fairly early on in the quarter final win over Switzerland. Dani Olmo is likely to replace him in the Spanish side.
Betting
It is hard to go against Italy here even though they are without arguably their player of the tournament so far in left-back Spinazzola. Spain just look like they are made for this Italian side in that they are wide open at the back and seem to lack composure when they are put under pressure, as we’ve seen in both their knockout matches with them conceding some crazy goals, and the philosophy of their attack is to get the ball out wide and put crosses in but that is just meat and drink to the Italian defence.
The Spinazzola injury certainly isn’t ideal but Italy have a midfield to win the battle in the centre of the park and much the better defence of the two so the only thing that can stop them really is the size of the occasion. They have players who have played in Euro finals, Champions League finals and big games across the continent so that doesn’t seem likely either. If there is a winner in this match I firmly believe it will be the Italians.
Tips
Back Italy (-0.25AH) to beat Spain for a 3/10 stake at 2.14 with Bet365
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