After a dramatic opening night of the last round of group matches on Sunday, Group B concludes on Monday with the pick of the matches being the one between Croatia and the defending champions Italy in Leipzig.
Italy go into this match knowing that they will finish in the top two in the group if they avoid defeat and will take their title defence into a round of 16 clash with Switzerland. Croatia will set that match up with a win of their own but anything other than a week is likely to see them heading home.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC 1 channel in the UK with the coverage getting going at 7.30pm ahead of the 8pm kick off in Leipzig.
Croatia
I think it is fair to say that this hasn’t been the tournament that Croatia would have wanted at all so far but from their point of view the beauty of the current format is that even though they haven’t won either of their opening two matches, if they come out on top in this one then they will make it through to the next stage. Clearly there will need to be an improvement in order for that to happen but in times of do or die that generally comes, unless you are Scotland!
Croatia offered more in attacking areas in their second game, which was to be expected really when you consider that they played Spain in their first one and Albania after that but the defensive displays they have shown are a real cause for concern. They have already conceded five goals in the tournament and you would think that if they ship many more here they will be going home having barely impacted the competition at all.
Italy
The defending champions Italy began their title defence with a win over Albania and while you couldn’t exactly call it a convincing display, considering they went behind inside the first minute they would have been delighted to win the game. I think they were flattered by the score in the second game because Spain could have had a hatful of goals if they could finish so if Italy are to get anything from this then there is an argument that they’ll need their best showing so far here.
This clearly isn’t an Italian side which is moulded on those of the past. This is one which has an intent to attack rather than rely on a tight defence. That is welcomed as a neutral but the issue is they don’t have what you would call a reliable goalscorer at this level so they are hoping that one of their attacking midfielders can find some composure and in around the penalty box or that something falls on a plate for whoever the number nine is. They might be fine in this match but you suspect that will find them out deeper in the event.
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Team News
Croatia have no fresh injury concerns going into this match but already know they would be without Nikola Vlasic for the remainder of the competition. You would imagine more changes will happen after two indifferent performances though.
Italy boss Luciano Spalletti has suggested that Federico Dimarco will be fit to feature for this game despite him being a doubt over the weekend. He also hinted that he would make changes with Mateo Retegui surely due a start for the ineffective Gianluca Scamacca.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets for this match with the first of them coming in the form of both teams to score. The sheer state of the group dictates that both teams are probably going to need to find the back of the net in this match and as luck would have it you couldn’t trust either defence on what they have served up so far. I guess the issue is trusting the forward players to find the back of the net but I do expect the chances to come regularly in this one. Whoever opens the scoring the other team will be obliged to push on and get back into the game. Croatia have coughed up 26 shots in this tournament, 12 of which have been on target and conceded five goals. Italy have leaked 28 shots, 10 of which have hit the target for three goals. There should naturally be chances galore in this one so both teams to score is of interest.
The other bet that I like is for Mateo Kovacic to have more than 1.5 shots. I mentioned when previewing the previous Croatia match that he is playing much further forward in the centre of the park for the Nations League finalists and now that they are embarking on a match that they have to win to stay alive you would expect him to be forward as much as possible here, potentially with a shoot on sight policy should he be given the chance. Italy will have Jorginho tracking midfielders but there might still be more of a focus on Luka Modric than Kovacic and so the Manchester City midfielder looks a solid bet and strong odds against to get a couple of shots away here, something he has done in both matches so far.
Tips
Back Both teams to score for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with Coral
Back M.Kovacic – Over 1.5 shots for a 3/10 stake at 2.63 with Betfair
