Despite all of the doom and gloom, England have the chance to win Group C of Euro 2024 on Tuesday night when they go up against a Slovenia side who have their sights set on the knockout stage of the tournament.
England have already qualified for the round of 16 but topping the group will see them play a third placed team in the first knockout round. If Slovenia avoid defeat here then they will be playing knockout football over the weekend too.
Where to watch
This match will be shown live and in full on the ITV1 channel in the UK with the build-up to this one beginning as early as 6.45pm for the 8pm kick off in Cologne.
England
As always in a group stage of a major tournament England have flattered deceive and have received plenty of criticism for it. They are clearly a team who set out to improve through the competition and not really worry about how they get out of the group as long as they do get out of it, but you just can’t lose the ball as easily and as regularly as they did against Denmark in their last game without paying the price and that is exactly what happened.
England fans won’t want their team with such a wealth of attacking talent sitting back but that has always been the go to plan in a group stage to supposedly conserve energy. I’m not convinced by it but Gareth Southgate isn’t going to change now. To be fair to England, they have largely been untroubled at the back in this tournament but for a rocket from a Danish midfielder which found the net. That is encouraging because there was a concern over their defence going into the tournament but they have to improve on the ball and going forward.
Slovenia
Slovenia came into the tournament knowing that they probably had to do their damage in the opening two matches because this always looked the toughest challenge on paper. That is still the case even if England are labouring through this first part of the competition. To be fair to Slovenia, they were seconds away from being through to the round of 16 but couldn’t keep Serbia at bay throughout the entire injury time period and now they have work to do.
They will progress with a draw here while a win could see them escape the group as the winners of it but should they lose the game they will be out of the competition unless they lose by two or fewer, Serbia lose and then the third placed team in Group F doesn’t get to two points. Realistically Slovenia need to draw here to go through and while they have shown the attacking impetus to do that you do wonder if they have the defensive stability to keep what surely has to be an improved England side at bay.
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Team News
England seem to have leaked their XI to the world and they are set to make one change with Conor Gallagher coming in for Trent Alexander-Arnold. Gareth Southgate has confirmed that Luke Shaw is unavailable once again.
Benjamin Sesko looked to go off with an injury in the draw with Serbia last Thursday but the Leipzig forward is expected to be fit to face England here in what could be an unchanged side from the one which started last time out.
Betting
I’m not going to get too involved in the match betting here because while I expect another England managed performance they have taken so much criticism that they might break out and do some damage here. While I’ll believe it when I see it, I’ll go with a speculative bet on Slovenia to win the most corners. I mentioned in the England against Denmark game how England really don’t win many corners without Luke Shaw with a lack of balance down that left side and they won just two against the Danes after just one against Serbia in the first game. You would think Slovenia are going to be behind here and needing to attack and it wouldn’t be a surprise if England invite them onto them. The Slovenians picked up five corners against Denmark and four against Serbia in a match they led for 25 minutes. The 17/2 on Slovenia to get the most corners just looks too big.
I’ll also visit the fouls market in this one because there is going to be a lot of attention on the centre of the park. Conor Gallagher looks like getting a start and the 10/11 on him committing two or more fouls just looks an obvious bet. He has played 30 minutes in the opening game and 45 in the second one and committed a foul on each occasion. With a longer role to play he is likely to double his foul output, particularly with his role to provide energy rather than quality. I expect him to rattle into a tackle or two to show his worth. On the other side of that midfield Adam Cerin is the man who kind of protects the midfield when the press gets beaten and as a result of that he has committed nine fouls across the two matches so far. Up against rampaging players such as Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham, not to mention Kane dropping deeper, he is going to need to be aggressive once again. Even money on him to commit 2.5 fouls against an England side who might well end up playing on the break looks an equally obvious pick.
Tips
Back Slovenia Most Corners for a 1/10 stake at 9.50 with Boylesports
Back them here:
Back C.Gallagher – Over 1.5 fouls for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Sky Bet
Back A.Cerin – Over 2.5 fouls for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
