The pick of the last 16 matches in Euro 2016 was without a doubt the match between Italy and Spain which is a rerun of the final from four years ago. Italy will be hoping this match goes better than that one did because they got done over 4-0 in that game. Spain will want much more of the same.
Italy made it into this match when they won Group E ahead of Belgium while Spain slipped up in their final group match and this was the punishment they have been left with.
They say never write off the Italians when it comes to tournaments but we did and we soon got put in our place with one of the tactical masterclasses of the tournament so far by Antonio Conte when his side did a job on Belgium in their opening match of the competition.
Italy followed that up with a much harder fought win over Sweden which ensured they had won the group and gave them the opportunity to make nine changes for their final group match against Republic of Ireland. They lost that match but you could tell from the team news that it was all about keeping players fresh.
Key Man
Someone is going to need to shadow Andres Iniesta in this match and I see no reason why that person can’t or won’t be Daniele di Rossi. Although he likes to get forward and support the attacks his primary responsibility in this match is to make sure Iniesta’s effect is minimized. If he can do that his side will go a long way to winning the game.
The Spanish looked a million dollars in their opening two matches when they battered the Czech Republic in a 1-0 win before running riot in their second game against Turkey. Although they were impressive in those wins we always had the question in the back of our minds were they good or were the opponents awful.
I had a feeling that Spain were about to succumb to someone good and they did when they came up against Croatia in their final group game. Croatia came from behind to beat Spain and condemn to this heavyweight clash which is surely happening far too early in the tournament.
Key Man
It takes something special to open up an Italian defence but as luck would have it for Spain they have special in droves in the form of Andres Iniesta. He is still amazing even at his age and can open up defences in the blink of an eye. He still knows where the back of the net is too and if Spain come through this one you’ve got to think that Iniesta will have contributed strongly.
Team News
Antonio Conte rested everyone for their last match in the group stage but we should be seeing something like the side which started the first game again Belgium for this one. One man who won’t feature is Antonio Candreva who picked up an injury which will keep him out.
Spain haven’t changed their side in the tournament yet and aren’t likely to begin doing that now unless any injuries have been kept hidden since the loss to Croatia. Sergio Ramos will need to be careful as he is on a yellow card.
Head to Head
There have been 30 previous meetings between these two with Spain winning 11 of them and there being the same number of draws. Italy have won on eight occasions although the Azzuri have only won one of the last 11 meetings which isn’t good for them coming into this match. They have only scored three goals in the last eight matches between the two as well, another thing that doesn’t bode well for Italy either.
Betting
I’m expecting an extremely tight match here. Both sides are defensively sound although Croatia showed that you can get at this Spanish defence and I’m sure that wasn’t lost on Antonio Conte.
I’ve a sneaky feeling for the Italians in this match but the doubt in my mind is that Conte’s Juventus sides were always torn apart by Barcelona when they met in the Champions League and this isn’t too dissimilar to that really.
There is one big difference though. In those Champions League games Conte was taking on modern managers who understand the current game but here he takes on a bit of a dinosaur in del Bosque. I’ve already mentioned in previous previews how we shouldn’t underestimate the value of Conte being the only manager in the tournament who truly understands the modern game.
Conte has already given Belgium a tactical masterclass in this tournament and I’ve a feeling that Spain might get one too. If Italy can defend well I think they can win this. I’m not sure whether they will do it in 90 minutes or if they will need longer so I’ll back them to qualify at what is still a tasty price.
Tips
WON – Back Italy to qualify for a 3/10 stake at 2.70 with Betfair
Back them here:
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EURO2016
ITALY vs SPAIN
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SPAIN TO WIN – 7/1
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ITALY vs SPAIN
ITALY TO WIN – BOOSTED TO – 12/1
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