The final tune up for the US Open across the pond is the St Jude Classic from one of my favourite courses in TPC Southwind. After an exciting week at Jack’s place where the golf course gave a little bit we’re on a tough track here which will act as perfect preparation for next week.
As you would expect this close to a major, especially one like the US Open which alternates venues every year, the strength of the field is variable but there are still some household names competing so we should get a competitive event.
Former Winners
2015 – Fabian Gomez
2014 – Ben Crane
2013 – Harris English
2012 – Dustin Johnson
2011 – Harrison Frazar
2010 – Lee Westwood
2009 – Brian Gay
2008 – Justin Leonard
2007 – Woody Austin
2006 – Jeff Maggert
The Course
TPC Southwind used to be the bain of my life as a kid when playing it on PGA Tour Golf and Tiger Woods on the various consoles and it isn’t the easiest for the professionals either with the last six winning scores all low teens or higher.
Southwind is a par 70 which stretches to a full length of 7,244 yards so it isn’t overly long for this level of play. The iconic hole is the par 3 11th which has an island green and is Southwind’s answer to Sawgrass although for some reason it doesn’t carry the same fear that the Sawgrass beast does.
I always think Southwind is a second shot and beyond golf course. That isn’t to say you can spray it to all parts off the tee but if you are going to succeed around here you have to find the greens and putt well or have a dynamite short game. These greens are tricky to find and just as hard to putt on so this is a real test of an all-round game.
With four par 3s on the course to only two par 5s par 3 scoring could be a big statistic this week but greens in the right number and putting stats are the ones which will catch my main interest heading into the tournament.
The Field
It has to be said that the field this week isn’t the strongest. Dustin Johnson is the leading name in it while Phil Mickelson appears as he always does in the week prior to a major but everyone here must know that the winner of this tournament has never gone on to win the US Open the next week.
There is nice mix of young, up and coming players who are turning pro fresh out of college seasons and experienced players looking ahead to next week so it will be interesting to see which of the 156 players teeing it up comes through on top.
Market Leaders
The betting is headed by Dustin Johnson at 13/2 but he can win at that price as far as I’m concerned. It is pretty well known I’m not a DJ fan but I’m especially no fan at that price especially around this course. I’m always concerned how much the very top players want from this week too.
Brooks Koepka is a general 12/1 shot this week but his putter seemed to go cold when it really mattered when he was last in contention and that is a big concern. Phil Mickelson is a shade bigger at 14/1 and as a regular player the week before a major we know he will be here to win not just fine tune his game.
Ryan Palmer failed to qualify for the US Open earlier in the week so if he is to play at Oakmont he has to have a big week here. He’s 20/1 to win the tournament while Gary Woodland and Harris English are both 22/1. Daniel Berger is 25/1 and it is 40/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’m having two main bets this week. Neither will be any strangers to regular readers of the previews because I’ve backed both a few times this week but both should be really suited to this golf course and while next week could be the focus I still don’t think big runs here will do any harm.
Colt Knost has been knocking the door down for a while now and it will open eventually. Knost ticks all the boxes here. He is straight off the tee, solid into the greens and very good on and around them.
The proof of that comes in the form of the statistics where he is tied 11th in proximity to the hole on Tour and inside the top 30 for strokes gained putting. His form is strong as we saw at The Players and the Byron Nelson where he was inside the top five both weeks so all things being equal Knost should be able to better the top 15 finishes he has had in the last two years here.
Graeme McDowell is perfectly suited to this course and he knows it. He has publicly gone on record as saying he likes this course and it is a perfect fit for his game. We’ve already seen Gmac win on a similar course out in Mexico this season and while his recent form hasn’t been brilliant he hasn’t really been playing on courses that fit like this one does.
In many ways it can be seen as a real positive that he made the top 10 at Sawgrass. Those were brutal conditions at times so it shows that even when he wasn’t playing his best he can still tough it out and that is never a bad thing around here.
We know all about Gmac’s game. He is a straight hitter who puts incredibly well and that is a great combination around here and all things being equal with the confidence McDowell exudes here I fancy he’ll run big this week.
Outsiders
I’m going to run with three outsiders this week all at decent prices and all who fit all the criteria I’m using and therefore I’m hoping in a weak looking field they will give us a run for our money.
The first of those is the loser of the playoff last week in Jon Curran. I had him on my radar for last week so in many ways I’m glad he lost that playoff but I’m hoping he bounces back and goes well this week. He was hitting the ball pretty nicely last week and that is his big strength but he sits in the top 25 on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained putting and he is tied for sixth in par 3 scoring which is never bad here.
Curran was second on a much tougher course last week in much more esteemed and stronger company than he will keep this week so if he can repeat of form of seven days ago he should be bang in contention again.
Steve Stricker has been the subject of a few punts for me this season and he has often provided me with a decent run and I think he will here too. He is so reliable from tee to green with his accuracy and when he is on the greens there are still few who are any better.
That is shown in the strokes gained putting stat where only Jason Day ranks higher than Stricker and Day is an amazing putter right now. If Stricker gets to grips with the greens from the off here he’ll not be too far away.
Finally I like Freddie Jacobson who has shown some good form this season with three top 10s and while his finishes have got worse recently we’ve had some pretty hot events of which this isn’t. One of those hot tournaments was The Players where Jacobson was nicely positioned after two rounds before he fell foul of the carnage of that third round.
Jacobson has a master short game and is a really good putter. He is 24th in strokes gained putting on Tour and goes well on the par 3s which is good. The Swede has played here 12 times and has made the cut on 10 occasions with three top 10s so this is a memorable stop off for him and with the form he’s shown this week I’ll back him to go well again.
Tips
Back C.Knost to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back G.McDowell to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back J.Curran to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-6)
PLACED – Back S.Stricker to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-6)
Back F.Jacobson to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-6)
Back them here:
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