The extended format for the FIFA Club World Cup, which gets underway in Miami on Saturday night, means that we can give a little more attention to the groups individually and pick out where the value might be in them.
We have eight groups in the competition, some which are stronger than others, but each of them have markets priced up to win, quality and to finish bottom as well as a few other things for us to take a deeper look at.
Group A
Al Ahly, Inter Miami, Palmeiras, Porto
The opening group of the Club World Cup gives us a nice eclectic mix of teams as we have runners from Africa, America, South America and Europe.
Al Ahly come here with the reputation of being the best African team but they have sacked their manager since their domestic campaign recently ended which puts plenty of question marks in here. I don’t wish to negate the achievements of Inter Miami but let’s be honest they are in because Lionel Messi plays for them. Palmeiras are one of the best from South America and they might be dark horses here while Porto look a fading force in Portugal let alone at this level.
Betting
I’m a little surprised that Porto are the favourites to win this group. To me that is a European reputation thing where the layers expect the European teams to dominate. I would imagine that might be the case at the business end of the tournament but it will only be the good ones. I’m going to take Palmeiras to win this group at a nice price. I was interested in Al Ahly to qualify but I expect the Brazilians to go well and there is a lot of heavy lifting on the opening match for the Egyptians under a new boss if that is the case.
Palmeiras are serial winners. In fact, last season was the first time since 2021 that they didn’t lift silverware of some kind but they are nicely placed in the Brazil league to put that right this time around. They are only 11 matches into the campaign out in Brazil which should give them a freshness advantage on two of the teams and in reaction to failing to win something last term they went out and spent big by Brazilian levels. This is a talented Palmeiras squad, which on paper to me at least looks the standout side in the group, and so at 9/5 they are the pick here.
Tips
Back Palmeiras to win Group A for a 3/10 stake at 2.80 with Paddy Power
Group B
Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Pais Saint-Germain, Seattle Sounders
There is always a ‘Group of Death’ in these competitions and in the FIFA Club World Cup it looks like it is Group B where the top class European pair of Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain and Atletico Madrid are joined by the MLS outfit Seattle Sounders and the Brazilian side Botafogo.
All eyes will be on PSG in this competition to see if they can swiftly become world champions five weeks or so after being crowned European champions. They have had a tough season though and maybe their style of play might not be suited to these conditions. Atletico Madrid will have something to prove in this competition and certainly have the firepower to do it but charging around like madmen in this humidity won’t be easy. Botafogo aren’t going great guns in Brazil while Seattle, although they have home advantage should be out of their depth a little at this level. Nothing stands out in this group.
Group C
Auckland City, Bayern Munich, Benfica, Boca Juniors
Group C contains two of the biggest names in world football as the Bundesliga powerhouse of Bayern Munich is in the section along with the South American side Boca Juniors. Portuguese outfit Benfica and the minnows of the competition, Auckland City, make up the group.
Bayern Munich are the Bundesliga champions with the attacking talent to really excel on this stage and they will be fancied to do some damage in this section. Benfica probably lost nothing in defeat to Barcelona in the Champions League but they were only good for second spot in Portugal this term. Boca Juniors probably have a bigger reputation than the squad and results that they arrive with. The majority of their important players are in the twilight of their career while Auckland City are just making up the numbers.
Betting
I’m not one of these people that automatically think European football is better than the rest and therefore if you don’t come from that part of the world you need not be here, but I do think that the two Europeans in this group are a bit clear of the other two and this group could be all but done and dusted after the second match in it when Boca Juniors go up against Benfica. Were the Portuguese side to win that match that could be it.
Even if they draw it, the fact that it is Benfica vs Bayern Munich in the last set of games, I think we could be in a position where a draw suits both parties there and that makes me think that the 13/8 on Bayern to top the group and Benfica to come second looks too big to me. If Boca Juniors arrived with a younger squad or real standout form them I might have changed my mind but that isn’t the case. Benfica can control possession when they need to so the European straight forecast appeals here.
Tips
Back Bayern-Benfica Straight Forecast for a 2/10 stake at 2.63 with Boylesports
Back it here:
Group D
Chelsea, Esperance de Tunis, Flamengo, Los Angeles FC
Group D looks a very wide open section where much like in Group A we have representatives from right across the world with Chelsea representing Europe, Flamengo offering South American flavour, the home interest coming from Los Angeles FC while African side Esperance de Tunis complete the quartet.
When you look at this section this looks a bit of a straight forward group. Chelsea should dominate it off the back of their Europa Conference League win while Flamengo look the standout second side with Los Angeles FC the third best team and then Esperance de Tunis propping up the pile but bookmakers clearly see it that way too. The question will be whether Los Angeles FC, in the prime of their season, can get the better of Flamengo to cause an upset.
Betting
There isn’t a huge amount that I like in this group. I don’t see Los Angeles FC progressing and their goals might come at a premium in this tournament but any which do come along could well do so in the form of Denis Bouanga, who while not a sensational price to top score for them in this tournament at 10/11, is an acceptable one when you consider that in the MLS this season he has eight goals and nobody else has more than three.
There is another reason why I like Bouanga here though. He is African himself so he might want to get the better of the Tunisian outfit but also he will operate from the left of the LAFC front three and when he comes up against Chelsea he will go against their defensive weakness which could lead to some success there. Bouanga will be on penalties and any key plays around the box, he has speed to get in behind and is a good finisher. If he can find a couple of goals in this tournament that should be plenty to top score for the MLS side here.
Tips
Back D.Bouanga Top Los Angeles FC goalscorer for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
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Group E
Inter Milan, Monterrey, River Plate, Urawa Red Diamonds
Group E is another one of those which brings us a team from four continents in the world as the Champions League finalists Inter Milan are joined in a section by Mexican outfit Monterrey, South American powerhouse River Plate and the Asian team Urawa Red Diamonds.
Inter Milan are an interesting case over the course of this competition. Having got so close to winning both Serie A and the Champions League, only to lose out at the death in both events, they might see this as retribution for their campaign or it might be a competition too far. Simone Inzaghi has since left for another team in this tournament so Inter will be under new leadership, which from a betting point of view isn’t ideal. Monterrey have the potential to be competitive with some technical players in their ranks while River Plate arrive with a huge reputation but questions over the strength of the Argentine league. Urawa Red Diamonds are only third in their league and you wonder if the Japanese style is too furious for the humidity of conditions here. The only thing that interests me here is a lack of goals but I can’t find a market for the lowest scoring group so I’ll leave this one alone.
Group F
Borussia Dortmund, Fluminense, Mamelodi Sundowns, Ulsan HD
Group F is one of the many where we have the four corners of the globe on show as the European side Borussia Dortmund are joined by Fluminense of South America, the Mamelodi Sundowns from South Africa and the Asian outfit Ulsan HD.
There are plenty of eyes on Dortmund in this competition with the Bundesliga outfit fancied by many, including ourselves, and they will hope to impose themselves on the tournament from the start. They might not find much in the way of competition in this group either. Fluminense are down in sixth in the Brazilian league and are very much an aging squad with Thiago Silva likely to skipper them at the age of 40. You would expect the Mamelodi Sundowns and Ulsan HD to be a little out of their depth. Ulsan have won just eight of 19 matches back home in their league which doesn’t inspire confident while the Sundowns look the weaker African outfit.
Betting
There are two bets that I like in this group and they both centre around Borussia Dortmund. The first of them is for them to get nine points from the group at 15/8. To me, that is 15/8 that they beat Fluminense in their opening match. The way the section plays out they have the two weaker sides in the second and third match and probably wouldn’t need to be at their absolute best for them to come past those. This isn’t the deepest squad Dortmund have ever had so they might not be able to rotate as much as they would want so the intensity should be there throughout the group and I expect them to win it with three straight wins.
From there, they are 11/10 to win a second round match and reach the quarter final. If they win the group and Inter Milan win their group then the opponent will be one of Monterrey, River Plate or Urawa Red Diamonds. The German side aren’t odds against to beat any of those and I wouldn’t be massively concerned if they end up facing Inter in the last 16 either. Dortmund have a brilliant route to the last eight and odds against to take advantage of it feels too big.
Tips
Back Borussia Dortmund – 9 points in the group for a 2/10 stake at 2.88 with Bet365
Back Borussia Dortmund to reach quarter finals for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with Bet365
Group G
Al Ain, Juventus, Manchester City, Wydad AC
Group G is something of an inter-continental affair too but it is one which has a pair of European sides in it in the Premier League outfit Manchester City as well as Juventus of Serie A. They are joined by Asian side Al Ain and the African challengers Wydad AC.
You only have to look at this group and it jumps out that the European pair will dominate it and in truth you would expect Manchester City to cruise through this section. There is definitely a class or two between them and the lower ranked sides in it and in truth there probably is a fair gap between them and Juventus as well. I don’t see any way in which Juventus don’t come second in this group but then that could be that for them. Al Ain and Wydad AC could play their final when they meet each other in the final game in the group.
Betting
This looks a straight forward section to me and while these things don’t always play out in that fashion, the fact that winning the group means in all likelihood the winners will avoid Real Madrid should ensure that Manchester City are bang at it when they face Juventus in the final game in the group. It would be something of a surprise if both sides don’t go into that match with two wins from two under their belt given the advantage that they look to have on the other two.
The straight forecast for Manchester City to beat Juventus in this group pays out at 6/4 and that looks a juicy price because it would be a surprise if City don’t go into that last match top on goal difference in the scenario that both sides have six points from six. There are plenty more goals in them than there is Juve so we could be in a position if we took that straight forecast where we are effectively on City at 6/4 on the double chance in that clash with Juve. That is a favourable position to me and so I like that punt here.
Tips
Back Man City-Juventus Straight Forecast for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Boylesports
Back it here:
Group H
Al-Hilal, Pachuca, Real Madrid, Red Bull Salzburg
The last of the groups in the Club World Cup this year sees two from Europe joined by a team from Asia and one from North America with the tournament favourites Real Madrid going in with Red Bull Salzburg, Al-Hilal and Pachuca.
Real Madrid will be expected to dominate this section, as they are the whole tournament in a lot of ways and it would be a surprise were they to slip up here, although under a new coach and with a few players to bed into the squad you can make a case for them not being at their best. Al-Hilal arrive here having lost their Saudi Pro League title but they are the Asian Champions League winners while Red Bull Salzburg have a lot to prove and Pachuca could find their defence lets them down at the wrong time.
Betting
I don’t think we are making too much of a bold prediction to expect Real Madrid to win this group but there is a good three-way battle in behind them for second spot and while that is likely to yield a clash with Manchester City in the round of 16, it would still be a notable achievement for whoever it is who comes out of this group. Red Bull Salzburg were the rage when the market opened but their indifferent form domestically and in Europe this term has opened the door for the other two.
I can’t be having Pachuca myself. They are a little leaky at the back and against a couple of teams with lively attacks that feels like a big problem Saudi Arabia are becoming a force in football though. They have spent big to bring some huge names to their league and they will host the World Cup in nine years from now so there is an emphasis on Al-Hilal to be more than just showing up at events like this. A spine of Yassine Bounou, Kalidou Koulibaly, Ruben Neves, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Aleksandar Mitrovic with some stardust around them should serve Al-Hilal well and at 5/4 they might be the frontrunners to win the race behind Real Madrid.
Tips
Back Al-Hilal to qualify for a 3/10 stake at 2.25 with Unibet
